Tag Archives: prediction accuracy

Predicting the decision of a private committee is inherently a task ill-suited for prediction markets.

Posted on October 13, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Prof Panos Ipeirotis: I am a â€œcalibrationistâ€. But I am strongly with Chris in this: Predicting the decision of a private committee is inherently a task ill-suited for prediction markets. Olympic Games, Nobel prizes, and similar events cannot be predicted. … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Betting, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged accuracy, betting markets, close group, event derivative markets, event derivatives, prediction accuracy, prediction market calibration, prediction markets, private committee | Leave a comment

Nobel Prize for Economics 2009 — Prediction Accuracy

Posted on October 12, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences has decided to award The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel for 2009 to Elinor Ostrom “for her analysis of economic governance, especially the commons” and Oliver E. Williamson … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged 2009 Nobel Prize for Economics, 2009 Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences, accuracy, bookmakers, economic science, economic sciences, Economics, Elinor Ostrom, inkling markets, Ladbrokes, Nobel Prize for Economics, Oliver E. Williamson, Oliver Williamson, prediction accuracy, prediction market, prediction markets, Prediction Post-Mortem, Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences | 18 Comments

Assessing the usefulness of enterprise prediction markets

Posted on September 29, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Do you need to have experience in running an enterprise prediction exchange in order to assess the pertinence of enterprise prediction markets? Paul Hewitt: Hi Jedâ€¦ As for qualifications, I have been making business decisions for almost 30 years. I … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Cases, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged accuracy, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence, corporate forecasting, corporate prediction markets, enterprise forecasting, enterprise prediction markets, internal prediction markets, prediction accuracy, prediction markets, private prediction markets | 1 Comment

Can we really assess InTrade’s very short prediction market on Van Jones?

Posted on September 7, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Carlos Graterol has a partial analysis on the Van Jones prediction market at InTrade. Basically, Carlos Graterol (an InTrade fanboy) says that InTrade should be credited for the accurate prediction. Carlos Graterol should publish what the politicians and editorialists were … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged betting markets, event derivative markets, prediction accuracy, prediction markets, Predictions, Van Jones | Leave a comment

Prediction Markets as a Medical Forecasting Tool: Demand for Hospital Services

Posted on August 20, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Prediction Markets as a Medical Forecasting Tool: Demand for Hospital Services Background This paper presents the outcome of a study conducted at the Royal Devon and Exeter Hospital in which a prediction market was established in order to forecast demand … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets | Tagged accuracy, analysis, betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, hospital, Journal of Prediction Markets, prediction accuracy, Prediction Market Journal, prediction markets, Predictions | Leave a comment

Three Voices on Prediction Markets: The Analyst, the Believer, and the Skeptic

Posted on August 20, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Three Voices on Prediction Markets: The Analyst, the Believer, and the Skeptic Followed from: – Crowdsourcing and Prediction Markets: Right-Timing Revisited Via the Spigit guy

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets | Tagged accuracy, analysis, betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, prediction accuracy, prediction markets, Predictions | Leave a comment

The benefits of information aggregation mechanisms (IAMs), which encompass (enterprise) prediction markets, have been greatly exaggerated.

Posted on April 26, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Gartner ranked the benefits given by software for enterprise prediction markets as “moderate” (look up the 3rd line of the 3rd column): – Gartner – Hype Cycle for Social Software, 2008 – (PDF file): – California Institute of Technology economist … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Consulting | Tagged accuracy, Business, corporate prediction markets, enterprise prediction markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Gartner, hype, internal prediction markets, prediction accuracy, prediction markets, private prediction markets, social software | Leave a comment

Why EPM consulting is still a pretty evangelical business.

Posted on April 26, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Emile Servan-Schreiber of NewsFutures (responding to Paul Hewitt): [...] The hard part, the real hurdles to acceptance are (i) to get wide and consistent participation, (ii) to overcome the suspicion of decision makers who naturally donâ€™t like to be second-guessed … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Consulting, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged accuracy, Consulting, corporate prediction markets, decision making, Emile Servan-Schreiber, enterprise prediction markets, internal prediction markets, NewsFutures, Paul Hewitt, prediction accuracy, prediction markets, private prediction markets | Leave a comment

Gartner: The “benefit” of enterprise prediction markets is “moderate” and “early users, who have begun to overestimate their accuracy and overall usefulness, are now somewhat disillusioned with the technology.”

Posted on April 15, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Gartner – Hype Cycle for Social Software, 2008 – (PDF file): Prediction Markets Analysis By: Matthew Cain; Nikos Drakos Definition: Prediction markets are betting mechanisms established to forecast the outcome of an ongoing issue of contention, such as quarterly sales … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Explainers, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged accuracy, Business, corporate prediction markets, enterprise prediction markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Gartner, hype, internal prediction markets, prediction accuracy, prediction markets, private prediction markets, social software | 2 Comments

The miracle of information aggregation and prediction accuracy

Posted on April 3, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Philip Tetlock interviewed (last year): IDEAS: Any individual expert is likely to be wrong. What happens when you put a bunch of them in the same room? Does the consensus come up with a better prediction than the individual? TETLOCK: … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Psychology, Resources - References | Tagged accuracy, Collective Intelligence, Expert Political Judgment, experts, forecasters, Forecasting (Science & Practice), foxes, hedgehogs, information aggregation, Philip Tetlock, predicting, prediction accuracy, prediction markets, Predictions, The Wisdom Of Crowds, wisdom of crowds | Leave a comment

Tag Archives: prediction accuracy

Meta

Recent Posts