Prof Panos Ipeirotis:
I am a “calibrationist”.
But I am strongly with Chris in this: Predicting the decision of a private committee is inherently a task ill-suited for prediction markets. Olympic Games, Nobel prizes, and similar events cannot be predicted. I will commend Chris for being stable in his position, for a long time. Chris, please keep [...]
The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences has decided to award The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel for 2009 to Elinor Ostrom “for her analysis of economic governance, especially the commons” and Oliver E. Williamson “for his analysis of economic governance, especially the boundaries of the firm”.
Both the bookmakers and [...]
Do you need to have experience in running an enterprise prediction exchange in order to assess the pertinence of enterprise prediction markets?
Paul Hewitt:
Hi Jed…
As for qualifications, I have been making business decisions for almost 30 years. I am a chartered accountant and a business owner. Starting in university and continuing to this day, I have [...]
Carlos Graterol has a partial analysis on the Van Jones prediction market at InTrade. Basically, Carlos Graterol (an InTrade fanboy) says that InTrade should be credited for the accurate prediction.
Carlos Graterol should publish what the politicians and editorialists were saying last week (the resignation calls were numerous);
The InTrade prediction market should have been created much, [...]
Prediction Markets as a Medical Forecasting Tool: Demand for Hospital Services
Background
This paper presents the outcome of a study conducted at the Royal Devon and Exeter Hospital in which a prediction market was established in order to forecast demand for services. To the researcher’s knowledge, it does not appear that prediction markets have been previously utilized [...]
Three Voices on Prediction Markets: The Analyst, the Believer, and the Skeptic
Followed from:
- Crowdsourcing and Prediction Markets: Right-Timing Revisited
Via the Spigit guy
Gartner ranked the benefits given by software for enterprise prediction markets as “moderate” (look up the 3rd line of the 3rd column):
-
Gartner – Hype Cycle for Social Software, 2008 – (PDF file):
-
California Institute of Technology economist Charles Plott:
What you’re doing is collecting bits and pieces of information and aggregating it so we can watch it [...]
Emile Servan-Schreiber of NewsFutures (responding to Paul Hewitt):
[...] The hard part, the real hurdles to acceptance are (i) to get wide and consistent participation, (ii) to overcome the suspicion of decision makers who naturally don’t like to be second-guessed by subordinates, (iii) to get the organization to agree to ask important questions instead of trivial [...]
Gartner – Hype Cycle for Social Software, 2008 – (PDF file):
Prediction Markets
Analysis By: Matthew Cain; Nikos Drakos
Definition: Prediction markets are betting mechanisms established to forecast the outcome of an ongoing issue of contention, such as quarterly sales or product delivery dates. They can also be used to prioritize ideas (users bet on which ideas have [...]
Philip Tetlock interviewed (last year):
IDEAS: Any individual expert is likely to be wrong. What happens when you put a bunch of them in the same room? Does the consensus come up with a better prediction than the individual?
TETLOCK: Usually yes. Jim Surowiecki wrote that very clever book on “The Wisdom of Crowds.” . . . [...]
Recent Comments