Tag Archives: Policy Analysis Market

Robin Hanson: My best idea was prediction markets.

Posted on June 29, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Robin Hanson‘s auto-biography (i.e., how Our Master Of All Universes views HimSelf): – Robin Hanson: Do you find it hard to summarize yourself in a few words? Me too. But I love the above quote. I have a passion, a … Continue reading →

Posted in Collective Decision Making, Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets, History, People | Tagged academia, academics, auto-biographies, betting markets, biographies, bios, Collective Decision Making, Collective Forecasting, collective intelligence that predicts, economic science, Economics, economists, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecasting, forecasts, George Mason Univeristy, idea future markets, idea futures, idea futures markets, Our Master Of All Universes, Policy Analysis Market, predicting, prediction markets, Predictions, professors, research scientists, researchers, Robin Hanson, scholars, tenure, universities | 3 Comments

Who needs Robin Hanson’s Policy Analysis Market when we have plain, classic, old-fashioned, market-free intelligence reports leaked to the mass media by the Commission on the Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation and Terrorism?

Posted on December 2, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- Any prediction market on the likelihood of terrorist acts perpetrated on US cities would simply aggregate this kind of information, which terrorism experts and journalists are already aware of (since they can read). –> Low social utility. – PS: … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Politics | Tagged Bob Graham, Commission on the Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation and Terrorism, intelligence, Policy Analysis Market, prediction markets, Robin Hanson | Leave a comment

For the anecdote…

Posted on October 2, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

The 2 bastards (Dorgan and Wyden) who made the life of Robin Hanson miserable in July and August 2003 have voted “no” on the Financial Bailout … Financial Rescue plan in the Senate.

Posted in History, Politics | Tagged Byron Dorgan, DARPA's Policy Analysis Market, Policy Analysis Market, Politics, prediction markets, Robin Hanson, Ron Wyden, US politics, US Senate | Leave a comment

Did Bin Laden speculate on the US airline stock derivatives (shorting them) between September 6, 2001 (date when he learned the timing of the attacks), and September 11, 2001 (date of the 4 attacks)?

Posted on May 23, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- Via Mat Fogarty of Xpree Unusual Option Market Activity and the Terrorist Attacks of September 11, 2001 – by Allen M. Poteshman – 2006 Options traders, corporate managers, security analysts, exchange officials, regulators, prosecutors, policy makers, andâ€”at timesâ€”the public … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchanges & Markets, Finance | Tagged 9/11 Commission, Airline, airline index, Al Qaeda, Allen M. Poteshman, Bin Laden, calls, derivatives, Did Bin Laden, FBI, Federal Bureau of Investigation, insider trading, insiders, options, Policy Analysis Market, put options, puts, S&P 500, SEC, Securities and Exchange Commission, Standard and Poor's airline, stocks, terrorism, terrorists, UAL, United States, US airlines, World Trade Center | 3 Comments

Terrorism Futures

Posted on March 19, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Justin Wolfers: It is the accuracy of market-generated forecasts that led the Department of Defense to propose running prediction markets on geopolitical events. While political rhetoric about “terrorism futures” led the plug to be pulled on that particular experiment… Justin … Continue reading →

Posted in History | Tagged Andrew Gelman, DARPA, Department of Defense, Justin Wolfers, Policy Analysis Market, prediction markets, terrorism futures | Leave a comment

New Hampshire is just another “Pentagon moment” for political prediction markets

Posted on January 10, 2008 by Michael Giberson

I think all the excitement over the New Hampshire prediction market prices is creating another “Pentagon moment” for the concept. A lot of attention is being paid to prediction markets, and it looks bad, but ultimately it will turn out … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta) | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, New Hampshire, Pentagon, Policy Analysis Market, Politics, US elections, US politics | 4 Comments

THE DAY ROBIN HANSON FOUGHT FOR HIS BABY

Posted on November 20, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

Robin Hanson on PAM: Just before Phase I commenced, I had designed and implemented a combinatorial market maker, and proposed that PAM use it. Charles Polk, president of Net Exchange, chose instead to refit their existing software to this application. … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchange & Market Designs, Exchanges & Markets, History, Inventions & Innovations, Mechanism Designs | Tagged CEO and founder, Charles Polk, John Ledyard, Market Scoring Rules, MSR, Net Exchange, PAM, Policy Analysis Market, prediction markets, President, Robin Hanson, ROBIN HANSON FOUGHT, set 255, simulation | Leave a comment

Irankling Study Group

Posted on December 11, 2006 by Mike Linksvayer

Three years after the Policy Analysis Market proposal’s untimely and tragic abortion has analysis of probable policy consequences improved at all? If reports on the Iraq Study Group are any indication, the answer is no. I gather a group of … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Industry), Exchanges & Markets, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce, Market Contract Statements | Tagged Iraq, Policy Analysis Market, prediction market site, United States | 3 Comments

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