Tag Archives: Peter McCluskey

Jason Ruspini tries to save the Hansonian world.

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The Robin Hanson-inspired, real-money, conditional prediction markets at InTrade are a world-wide disaster of thermonuclear proportion, concludes the long-time Robin Hanson fanboy who forked over real money to InTrade to have them set up and run.

[...] I conclude those four contracts did not provide valuable information about how the [2008 US presidential] election would affect the world. Dixit Peter McCluskey.

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What Jean-Claude Kommer (a patented prediction market gadfly) thinks of Robin Hanson’s conditional prediction markets subsidized by Peter McCluskey

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Subsidizing real-money prediction markets and real-money conditional prediction markets

Should Google subsidize the Lunar X Prize contract on InTrade? John Salvatier, Our good friend Bo Cowgill might have already re-created those prediction markets on Google’s internal prediction exchange at a marginal cost of zero US dollar. No need for … Continue reading

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JASON RUSPINI’S CROCKERY: The Brain states forcefully that they are not “event futures”, but “binary options”. Still, as soon as he premieres prediction markets on tax rates at InTrade, he calls them “tax futures” —of course.

- Measured Enthusiasm for Prediction Markets – (PDF file) – by Jason Ruspini. – My thoughts: Peter McCluskey thinks they are “futures”. PAM was only extremely marginally about “terrorism and assassination futures”. Even though they don’t do much more than … Continue reading

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Work for free for InTrade —and become famous (a little bit).

InTrade embraces ‘crowd sourcing’: Intrade is looking for New Market Ideas! Friday, Jan 25, 2008 What uncertain event are you interested in trading? What uncertain event are you interested in getting predictive information on from the Intrade community? Please let … Continue reading

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Implied Prices for Robin Hanson’s Presidential Decision-Aid Markets

More from Peter McCluskey. And see the comments here. Economist Michael Giberson will share some thoughts about these markets, later on, no doubt.

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Bet2Give needs Peter McCluskey’s automated market maker.

Previously: An automated market maker subisdizes Robin Hanson’s presidential decision-aid markets on Intrade

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An automated market maker subisdizes Robin Hanson’s presidential decision-aid markets on Intrade

Peter McCluskey: Automated Market Maker for certain Intrade contracts I have implemented subsidies to encourage trading of some conditional prediction market contracts that may provide useful information about the consequences of the 2008 presidential election, via a simple automated market … Continue reading

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Bayesian Investor

… is The Blog Of The Day. Peter McCluskey (a Robin Hanson fanboy) blogs book reviews. Great blog. Recommended.

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