Tag Archives: Peter McCluskey

Jason Ruspini tries to save the Hansonian world.

Written by Chris F. Masse on November 17, 2008 — Leave a Comment

Posted in Exchange & Market Designs, Exchanges & Markets | Also tagged conditional prediction markets, InTrade, Jason Ruspini, prediction markets, Robin Hanson

The Robin Hanson-inspired, real-money, conditional prediction markets at InTrade are a world-wide disaster of thermonuclear proportion, concludes the long-time Robin Hanson fanboy who forked over real money to InTrade to have them set up and run.

Written by Chris F. Masse on November 14, 2008 — 1 Comment

[...] I conclude those four contracts did not provide valuable information about how the [2008 US presidential] election would affect the world.
Dixit Peter McCluskey.

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Market Efficiency), Exchanges & Markets, Inventions & Innovations, Market Makers (Automated), Market Prices & Probabilities | Also tagged conditional prediction markets, InTrade, prediction markets, real-money prediction markets, Robin Hanson

What Jean-Claude Kommer (a patented prediction market gadfly) thinks of Robin Hanson’s conditional prediction markets subsidized by Peter McCluskey

Written by Chris F. Masse on August 5, 2008 — Leave a Comment

Posted in Exchanges & Markets | Also tagged Jean-Claude Kommer, prediction markets, Robin Hanson, subsidized conditional prediction markets, subsidized prediction markets

Subsidizing real-money prediction markets and real-money conditional prediction markets

Written by Chris F. Masse on August 5, 2008 — 2 Comments

Should Google subsidize the Lunar X Prize contract on InTrade?
John Salvatier,
Our good friend Bo Cowgill might have already re-created those prediction markets on Google’s internal prediction exchange at a marginal cost of zero US dollar. No need for him to “subsidize” external prediction markets.
[As an appendix, I precise that I am in favor of opening [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Philanthropy | Also tagged Bo Cowgill, conditional prediction markets, decision-aid markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Google, John Salvatier, malaria, Mike Linksvayer, news media outlet, Philanthropy, prediction markets, real-money prediction markets, Robin Hanson, subsidized conditional prediction markets, subsidized prediction markets

JASON RUSPINI’S CROCKERY: The Brain states forcefully that they are not “event futures”, but “binary options”. Still, as soon as he premieres prediction markets on tax rates at InTrade, he calls them “tax futures” —of course.

Written by Chris F. Masse on May 27, 2008 — 2 Comments

-
Measured Enthusiasm for Prediction Markets – (PDF file) – by Jason Ruspini.
-
My thoughts:

Peter McCluskey thinks they are “futures”.
PAM was only extremely marginally about “terrorism and assassination futures”.
Even though they don’t do much more than discounting known information, “prediction markets” is not a misnomer, since the term means that each prediction (in the form of an [...]

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Finance | Also tagged accuracy, CFTC, event derivative markets, event derivatives, event futures markets, Finance, InTrade, Jason Ruspini, Justin Wolfers, prediction markets, Regulations, Robin Hanson, tax futures, United States

Work for free for InTrade —and become famous (a little bit).

Written by Chris F. Masse on January 25, 2008 — Leave a Comment

InTrade embraces ‘crowd sourcing’:
Intrade is looking for New Market Ideas!
Friday, Jan 25, 2008
What uncertain event are you interested in trading? What uncertain event are you interested in getting predictive information on from the Intrade community? Please let us know by mailing markets@intrade.com.
By suggesting a new market* and agreeing to be cited you [...]

Posted in Analysis (Market Proposals), Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce | Also tagged crowd sourcing, David Pennock, Eric Zitzewitz, event derivative markets, event derivatives, International Strategy & Investment Group, InTrade, Justin Wolfers, Mark Perry, North Korea, prediction market proposals, prediction markets, research scientist, Robin Hanson, Yahoo!

Implied Prices for Robin Hanson’s Presidential Decision-Aid Markets

Written by Chris F. Masse on January 18, 2008 — Leave a Comment

More from Peter McCluskey.
And see the comments here.
Economist Michael Giberson will share some thoughts about these markets, later on, no doubt.

Posted in Collective Decision Making, Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Also tagged Collective Decision Making, conditional prediction markets, economist, Michael Giberson, prediction markets, Robin Hanson, Robin Hanson's Presidential Decision-Aid

Bet2Give needs Peter McCluskey’s automated market maker.

Written by Chris F. Masse on January 11, 2008 — Leave a Comment

Previously: An automated market maker subisdizes Robin Hanson’s presidential decision-aid markets on Intrade

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Makers (Automated) | Also tagged automated market maker, Bet 2 Give, Bet2Give, Market Liquidity, NewsFutures, prediction markets, Robin Hanson

An automated market maker subisdizes Robin Hanson’s presidential decision-aid markets on Intrade

Written by Chris F. Masse on January 7, 2008 — Leave a Comment

Peter McCluskey:

Automated Market Maker for certain Intrade contracts
I have implemented subsidies to encourage trading of some conditional prediction market contracts that may provide useful information about the consequences of the 2008 presidential election, via a simple automated market maker (using an algorithm described near the end of http://hanson.gmu.edu/ifextropy.html). The subsidized market maker ought to provide [...]