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Tag Archives: Peter McCluskey
The Robin Hanson-inspired, real-money, conditional prediction markets at InTrade are a world-wide disaster of thermonuclear proportion, concludes the long-time Robin Hanson fanboy who forked over real money to InTrade to have them set up and run.
[...] I conclude those four contracts did not provide valuable information about how the [2008 US presidential] election would affect the world. Dixit Peter McCluskey.
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Market Efficiency), Exchanges & Markets, Inventions & Innovations, Market Makers (Automated), Market Prices & Probabilities
Tagged conditional prediction markets, InTrade, Peter McCluskey, prediction markets, real-money prediction markets, Robin Hanson
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Work for free for InTrade —and become famous (a little bit).
InTrade embraces ‘crowd sourcing’: Intrade is looking for New Market Ideas! Friday, Jan 25, 2008 What uncertain event are you interested in trading? What uncertain event are you interested in getting predictive information on from the Intrade community? Please let … Continue reading
Posted in Analysis (Market Proposals), Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce
Tagged crowd sourcing, David Pennock, Eric Zitzewitz, event derivative markets, event derivatives, International Strategy & Investment Group, InTrade, Justin Wolfers, Mark Perry, North Korea, Peter McCluskey, prediction market proposals, prediction markets, research scientist, Robin Hanson, Yahoo!
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Implied Prices for Robin Hanson’s Presidential Decision-Aid Markets
More from Peter McCluskey. And see the comments here. Economist Michael Giberson will share some thoughts about these markets, later on, no doubt.
Posted in Collective Decision Making, Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities
Tagged Collective Decision Making, conditional prediction markets, economist, Michael Giberson, Peter McCluskey, prediction markets, Robin Hanson, Robin Hanson's Presidential Decision-Aid
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Bet2Give needs Peter McCluskey’s automated market maker.
Previously: An automated market maker subisdizes Robin Hanson’s presidential decision-aid markets on Intrade
An automated market maker subisdizes Robin Hanson’s presidential decision-aid markets on Intrade
Peter McCluskey: Automated Market Maker for certain Intrade contracts I have implemented subsidies to encourage trading of some conditional prediction market contracts that may provide useful information about the consequences of the 2008 presidential election, via a simple automated market … Continue reading
Posted in Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets, Market Makers (Automated), X Groups
Tagged automated market maker, Clinton, conditional prediction markets, Congratulations Robin, decision markets, decision-aid markets, Democrat president, Democratic party, Federal Reserve System, InTrade, Iraq, Justin Wolfers, oil prices, Peter McCluskey, prediction markets, President, presidential decision markets, Python, Republican U.S., Robin Hanson, United States, University of Westminster, US government, US Treasury, USD
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Bayesian Investor
… is The Blog Of The Day. Peter McCluskey (a Robin Hanson fanboy) blogs book reviews. Great blog. Recommended.
Posted in Resources - References
Tagged Peter McCluskey, prediction markets, Robin Hanson
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