Tag Archives: Olympics

If Michael Giberson is wrong, then that means that Chris Masse is right.

Posted on October 6, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Paul Hewitt: I dont’ know that you could say Chicago was the “weakest link”, just because it got dropped first in the voting. The political process caused it to go early. However, Michael Giberson is wrong to imply that the … Continue reading →

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Who has the best analysis for Chicago’s failed bid for the Olympics?

Posted on October 6, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Prof Michael Giberson: I think the “small, secretive committee” explanation is weak []. Bradbury does an excellent job sifting through the shifting coalitions revealed in the three rounds of IOC voting. Neither Madrid nor Toyko showed any significant ability to … Continue reading →

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David Letterman jokes about Chicago’s failed bid for the Olympics.

Posted on October 6, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

3:15 into: Previously: David Letterman slept with *many* female members of his staff. Next: “I have to agree with Chris. The market participants did not possess a sufficient level of information completeness to arrive at the correct prediction.” Previously: The … Continue reading →

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Why did all the prediction markets get the Olympic decision to reject Chicago so wrong?

Posted on October 6, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

The blogger at Sabernomics sees “this as a win for prediction markets, not a failure.” I don’t share his views, but I wanted to link to his piece for you to make up your own mind about the issue.

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Never try to divine the IOC decisions on Olympics venues, Mike.

Posted on October 6, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Prof Michael Giberson, No “careful observer knew this in advance” (about Chicago being a lemon), for the simple reason that if they knew, they would have downgraded Chicago on the InTrade and BetFair prediction markets, and Ben Shannon would have … Continue reading →

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Could we have divined that Chicago was a lemon?

Posted on October 5, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Prof Michael Giberson: Chris, isn’t it odd for you to state “Chicago had not the slightest chance to begin with.” The phrase implies you believe that the probability of Chicago’s selection was near zero all along, but you have been … Continue reading →

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Midas Oracle is the only website in the world to have told you *not* to bet on Chicago —and to stay (far) away from any Olympics venue prediction market.

Posted on October 5, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Previously: Will Chicago get the Olympics? Don’t bet on it. Too risky. Had Ben Shannon listened to us, he would have spared $6,000 —yes, that’s six thousand US dollars. Next: Could we have divined that Chicago was a lemon?

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Why you won’t hear Robin Hanson et al. about the Chicago Olympics prediction market disaster

Posted on October 5, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

- Because they are not interested in telling you the truth about prediction markets. – They are interested in propagating a myth, rather. – Don’t pay $400 for a vendor phone-booth conference on prediction markets, where their merits are hyper … Continue reading →

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The Chicago candidacy, which was favored by the prediction markets (and gullible bettors like Ben Shannon), is the one that fared the worst.

Posted on October 5, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Look up prof Michael Giberson’s comment below my highly intelligent post, “Why an analyst should assess each newly created prediction market“. And compare it with Paul Kedrowski’s bad analysis, followed by InTrade CEO John Delaney’s equally bad analysis. Read the … Continue reading →

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Why an analyst should assess each newly created prediction market

Posted on October 3, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

The Chicago candidacy, which was favored by the prediction markets (and gullible bettors like Ben Shannon), is the one that fared the worst. As we have blogged here many times, not every prediction market is created equal. Some are bound … Continue reading →

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