Tag Archives: Olympics
Who has the best analysis for Chicago’s failed bid for the Olympics?
Prof Michael Giberson:
I think the “small, secretive committee” explanation is weak [].
Bradbury does an excellent job sifting through the shifting coalitions revealed in the three rounds of IOC voting. Neither Madrid nor Toyko showed any significant ability to attract votes as the rounds proceeded. It was going to be Rio or Chicago all [...]
David Letterman jokes about Chicago’s failed bid for the Olympics.
3:15 into:
Previously: David Letterman slept with *many* female members of his staff.
Next: “I have to agree with Chris. The market participants did not possess a sufficient level of information completeness to arrive at the correct prediction.”
Previously: The Chicago candidacy, which was favored by the prediction markets (and gullible bettors like Ben Shannon), is the one [...]
Never try to divine the IOC decisions on Olympics venues, Mike.
Prof Michael Giberson,
No “careful observer knew this in advance” (about Chicago being a lemon), for the simple reason that if they knew, they would have downgraded Chicago on the InTrade and BetFair prediction markets, and Ben Shannon would have not bet $6,000 on Chicago.
I look forward to your contrite correction on the frontpage of Knowledge [...]
Could we have divined that Chicago was a lemon?
Prof Michael Giberson:
Chris, isn’t it odd for you to state “Chicago had not the slightest chance to begin with.” The phrase implies you believe that the probability of Chicago’s selection was near zero all along, but you have been claiming that it is impossible to predict anything about the outcomes of IOC selection processes.
Also, the [...]
Midas Oracle is the only website in the world to have told you *not* to bet on Chicago —and to stay (far) away from any Olympics venue prediction market.
Previously: Will Chicago get the Olympics? Don’t bet on it. Too risky.
Had Ben Shannon listened to us, he would have spared $6,000 —yes, that’s six thousand US dollars.
Next: Could we have divined that Chicago was a lemon?
Why you won’t hear Robin Hanson et al. about the Chicago Olympics prediction market disaster
- Because they are not interested in telling you the truth about prediction markets.
- They are interested in propagating a myth, rather.
- Don’t pay $400 for a vendor phone-booth conference on prediction markets, where their merits are hyper inflated to serve commercial purposes. Stay at home and read Midas Oracle.
Previously: The Chicago candidacy to host [...]
The Chicago candidacy, which was favored by the prediction markets (and gullible bettors like Ben Shannon), is the one that fared the worst.
Look up prof Michael Giberson’s comment below my highly intelligent post, “Why an analyst should assess each newly created prediction market“.
And compare it with Paul Kedrowski’s bad analysis, followed by InTrade CEO John Delaney’s equally bad analysis.
Read the New York Times for more on why Chicago had not the slightest chance to begin with.
Previously: Will [...]
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