Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: observer

David Eisenthal’s Final Look at His Massachusetts Fifth Congressional District Democratic Primary Prediction Market

Written by Michael Giberson on September 1, 2007 — Leave a Comment

At The Eisenthal Report, market manager David Eisenthal provides an update on the Massachusetts Fifth Congressional District Democratic Primary Prediction Market that he set up at Inkling.
At various times, Rep. Barry Finegold (D – Andover), Rep. Jamie Eldridge (D – Acton), and Niki Tsongas have all led the field.
As the election approaches, however, the market [...]

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Also tagged , , , , ,

The Most Active Inkling Market Ever?

Written by Michael Giberson on August 4, 2007 — 1 Comment

Is the most actively traded Inkling Market focused on a single party’s primary in a special election to be held to replace a retiring member of Congress? More active than any other political market on Inkling, more than baseball, more than football, and even more than American Idol. A few markets have more [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Also tagged , , , , , , , , ,

Predictocracy: Market Mechanisms for Public and Private Decisionmaking — THE MARKET WEB

Written by Chris F. Masse on February 13, 2007 — 5 Comments

Predictocracy: Market Mechanisms for Public and Private Decisionmaking – by Michael Abramowicz – 2007-xx-xx – (fall)
Chapter: The Market Web – (towards the end of the book)
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Michael Abramowicz:
If prediction markets should become commonplace, decisionmakers might link to them in their own analyses.
Will trading play-money and/or real-money event derivative contracts become commonplace? It’s likely, at the contrary, [...]

Posted in Analysis (Meta) | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Vertical, public prediction exchanges

Written by Chris F. Masse on January 26, 2007 — 3 Comments

About Alex Kirtland’s blog post.
#1. I fully agree that vertical prediction exchanges (a la HSX) are performing a better service than vertical lines in a generalist prediction exchange. (I had some thoughts on that, last year.)
#2. The vertical prediction exchange that Alex Kirtland is talking about has popped up on Delicious and other places, because, [...]

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Ethics | Also tagged , , , , ,

BetFair’s explainer on betting exchanges

Written by Chris F. Masse on December 23, 2006 — Leave a Comment

… (a.k.a. real-money prediction exchanges).
From the BetFair’s Help sub-website:
How do betting exchanges work?
A betting exchange is a bookie which uses technology to make sure you get a better price. It does that by reducing its risk, which means it doesn’t have to build in extra margin as a safety cushion. The effect is that punters [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Explainers | Also tagged , , , , , , ,

Perry Metzger on Peter McCluskey’s essay – Should Prediction Markets be Charities?

Written by Guest Author on December 12, 2006 — Leave a Comment

First published at Overcoming Bias dot com
Republished at Midas Oracle with the author’s permission – Emphasis added
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Peter [McCluskey] says: “A for-profit prediction market that tries to both maximize profits and provide valuable information to voters faces conflicting pressures, since my observations of existing markets such as those on Intrade show little evidence of a significant [...]

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Meta) | Also tagged , , , , ,

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