Tag Archives: observer

David Eisenthal’s Final Look at His Massachusetts Fifth Congressional District Democratic Primary Prediction Market

Posted on September 1, 2007 by Michael Giberson

At The Eisenthal Report, market manager David Eisenthal provides an update on the Massachusetts Fifth Congressional District Democratic Primary Prediction Market that he set up at Inkling. At various times, Rep. Barry Finegold (D – Andover), Rep. Jamie Eldridge (D … Continue reading →

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The Most Active Inkling Market Ever?

Posted on August 4, 2007 by Michael Giberson

Is the most actively traded Inkling Market focused on a single party’s primary in a special election to be held to replace a retiring member of Congress? More active than any other political market on Inkling, more than baseball, more … Continue reading →

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Predictocracy: Market Mechanisms for Public and Private Decisionmaking — THE MARKET WEB

Posted on February 13, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

Predictocracy: Market Mechanisms for Public and Private Decisionmaking – by Michael Abramowicz – 2007-xx-xx – (fall) Chapter: The Market Web – (towards the end of the book) — Michael Abramowicz: If prediction markets should become commonplace, decisionmakers might link to … Continue reading →

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Vertical, public prediction exchanges

Posted on January 26, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

About Alex Kirtland’s blog post. #1. I fully agree that vertical prediction exchanges (a la HSX) are performing a better service than vertical lines in a generalist prediction exchange. (I had some thoughts on that, last year.) #2. The vertical … Continue reading →

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BetFair’s explainer on betting exchanges

Posted on December 23, 2006 by Chris F. Masse

… (a.k.a. real-money prediction exchanges). From the BetFair’s Help sub-website: How do betting exchanges work? A betting exchange is a bookie which uses technology to make sure you get a better price. It does that by reducing its risk, which … Continue reading →

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Perry Metzger on Peter McCluskey’s essay – Should Prediction Markets be Charities?

Posted on December 12, 2006 by Guest Author

First published at Overcoming Bias dot com Republished at Midas Oracle with the author’s permission – Emphasis added — Peter [McCluskey] says: “A for-profit prediction market that tries to both maximize profits and provide valuable information to voters faces conflicting … Continue reading →

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