Tag Archives: models

In the last three years, America’s military and intelligence agencies have spent more than $125 million on computer models that are supposed to forecast political unrest. – [REPORT]

Posted on February 11, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Wired: Pentagon’s Prediction Software Didn’t Spot Egypt Unrest.

Posted in Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged Central Intelligence Agency, CIA, DARPA, Defense Intelligence Agency, DIA, Egypt, forecasting, forecasts, models, Pentagon, predicting, Predictions, predictive software, Software, unrests | Leave a comment

Mr T. is more bullish on gold than Mr Ruspini. – [VIDEO]

Posted on October 14, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

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Posted in Finance, Financial Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged forecasting, gold, gold market, gold price, gold price model, models, predicting, Predictions | Leave a comment

Google Prediction API

Posted on May 19, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

Google Prediction API FAQ More. Via Prof Panos. UPDATE: Prof Panos has more.

Posted in Forecasting (Science & Practice), Information Technology | Tagged algorithms, forecasting, forecasts, Google, Google Prediction, Google Prediction API, information, Information Technology, modelling, models, predicting, Predictions, Science, statistical modelling, statistics, technology | Leave a comment

Kaggle allows organizations to post their data and have it scrutinized by the world’s best statisticians.

Posted on April 16, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

http://kaggle.com/

Posted in Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged forecasting, forecasting models, Kaggle, models, statistics | Leave a comment

REVOLUTION: Nate Silver says the Internet changed everything in politics. – [VIDEO]

Posted on March 9, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

16:35 into, Nate Silver is asked whether he would open up the data fire hose, one day:

Posted in Forecasting (Science & Practice), Science | Tagged data, data crunching, forecasting, forecasting models, forecasts, models, Nate Silver, polling data, Predictions, statistical models | Leave a comment

SXSW: Nate Silver explains how he approached political forecasting for the 2008 US presidential elections. – [VIDEO]

Posted on March 9, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

In part #2, he speaks about the books he is writing:

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Science | Tagged 2008 US presidential elections, Barack Obama, forecasting, forecasting models, models, Nate Silver, political forecasting, Politics, Psychology, statistical models, statistics, SXSW 2009, US politics, US presidential elections | Leave a comment

The relative advantage of prediction markets (over conventional means of forecasting, namely polls and statistical models) is remarkably… SMALL.

Posted on January 22, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

Sharad Goel: In a new study, Daniel Reeves, Duncan Watts, Dave Pennock and I compare the performance of prediction markets to conventional means of forecasting, namely polls and statistical models. Examining thousands of sporting and movie events, we find that … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Market Efficiency), Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged BetFair, betting markets, Collective Forecasting, event derivative markets, forecasting, InTrade, Iowa Electronic Markets, models, polls, prediction markets, Sports, statistical models, statistics, stats | Leave a comment

How Monte Carlo simulations can forecast sales

Posted on January 12, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

“Monte Carlo simulations run in Excel can transform our limited data sets into statistically valid probability models that give us a much more accurate view into the future.“

Posted in Business, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged forecasting, models, Monte Carlo simulations, sales, sales forecasting | 1 Comment

Bueno de Mesquita uses mathematics to predict political events.

Posted on November 22, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Experts Who Predict the Future Criticism of Bueno de Mesquita’s Theories Addendum: Philip Tetlock’s foxes and hedgehogs

Posted in Forecasting (Science & Practice), Politics | Tagged Bueno de Mesquita, forecasting, forecasts, mathematics, modeling, models, Politics, predicting, Predictions | Leave a comment

Modeling Planet Earth is difficult.

Posted on October 18, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

In defense of Super Freakonomics A commenter on their blog: I am a paleoclimatologist, and can only say FINALLY. Someone with economics background understands the difference between reality and a model for reality. Al Gore, Jim Hansen, Paul Krugman, and … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Ethics, Forecasting (Science & Practice), History, Research, Science | Tagged Earth, Earth science, Economics, Freakonomics, models, Planet Earth, Science, Stephen Dubner, Steven Levitt, Super Freakonomics, SuperFreakonomics | 2 Comments