Tag Archives: Mike Smithson

What uses for the prediction markets on geopolitical events? — [ANALYSIS]

–> Well researched and balanced article from London School of Economics’s Matthew Partridge: The intelligence and security community also has mixed views. John F McCreary, the Chief Analysis Officer for KGS Security, who had a senior role at the United … Continue reading

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The PoliticalBetting.com Appreciation Society @ FaceBook

The PoliticalBetting.com Appreciation Society @ FaceBook For Mike Smithson’s fanboys.

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Mike Smithson’s Political Betting is a success.

- Quality content. (I strongly disliked his coverage of the US primaries, though.) – A popular blog. – A vibrant community, who comments and meets. – A PageRank of 6/10 —probably en route to 7/10. – 776 feed subscribers at … Continue reading

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Clueless Mike Smithson is betting that Barack Obama will take Hillary Clinton on the Democratic ticket.

Wouarf. He will lose his bet. -

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Opening one’s mouth to say nothing

I am a big fan of Mike Smithson (Political Betting .com) usually, but his Op-Ed is the lamest thing I have ever read. Key finding of our British political pundit: check out reliable, primary, advanced indicators (i.e., good pollsters), and … Continue reading

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Mike Smithson says that one “impersonator” (that is, someone pretending to be Mike Smithson) published comments on the PoliticalBetting.com thread about the London political elections, giving false exit poll information, in order to influence the “betting prices” (which I understand, partially, at least, if not fully, as the BetFair and Betdaq prices).

Starting now, his blog will only publish comments from already approved commenters —comments from brand-new commenters will have to be manually approved. We have had this procedure in place on Midas Oracle for some time, now. -

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Londoners (among them many faithful Midas Oracle readers) go voting today. Spot, in the first chart, that British political betting expert Mike Smithson serves some (IMPLIED) PROBABILITIES EXPRESSED IN PERCENTAGES to his readers —and not those fu***ng fractional odds, or those equally fu***ng digital / decimal odds.

- Boris Johnson, next mayor of London: – RELATED: BetFair’s “percentage vote share” prediction markets are illiquid, alas. – BetFair blog’s London page — Tabloid style. I don’t like it much. I think politics should be treated more seriously. Mike … Continue reading

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BBC’s coverage of politics is dull like taxes, death and German sausages.

- – I’d go further than Mike Smithson (a British political betting blogger, and a former BBC News journalist). Not just US media. US blogs are vastly superior to UK blogs. Prediction market journalism manufactured in America will be highly … Continue reading

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Once again, a BetFair spin doctor misunderstands the prediction market approach.

Via Niall O’Connor, the Cyprus Mail (citing BetFair spin doctor Michael Robb): Political markets are different to sports markets because the people betting have an interest in the subject such as academics, journalists, people who work at it in their … Continue reading

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“I am much more aligned with InTrade than you are, Chris.”

That came from a margin trader [*] and prediction market blogger. Well, if you practice (amateur or professional) journalism (which blogging is), then I don’t see how you can be interesting to your audience if you are “aligned” with one … Continue reading

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