Tag Archives: Michael Abramowicz

Decision markets will one day revolutionize governance, both public and private…

Posted on June 9, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

That’s the blurb that Robin Hanson wrote up for “Predictocracy“, Michael Abramowicz’s book. I don’t believe a single word of it. If prediction markets and decision-aid markets were so powerful, we would have had the evidence under our very nose, … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Collective Decision Making, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Politics | Tagged betting markets, Collective Decision Making, conditional prediction markets, decision making, decision-aid markets, event derivative markets, Michael Abramowicz, prediction markets, Predictocracy, Robin Hanson | 6 Comments

Third Workshop on Prediction Markets, July 9 in Chicago

Posted on July 1, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

The Third: July 9th, 2008 – 1:25pm Opening Remarks – 1:30 – 2:20pm: Session 1: Practical Applications and Experiences – Speaker: Emile Servan-Schreiber (1:30-1:45pm) Keys to successful implementation of an internal corporate prediction market (Emile Servan-Schreiber) – Speaker: Todd Henderson … Continue reading →

Posted in Events & Meetings | Tagged Abe Othman, Andreas Graefe, Benoit Delbecq, Chicago, Clemens van Dinther, David Ubilava, Delphi, Emile Servan-Schreiber, Eric Zitzewitz, George Tziralis, Hajime Mizuyama, Ivan Corwin, J. Scott Armstrong, Justin Wolfers, Kenneth A. Foster, meetings, Michael Abramowicz, Nominal Groups, Panos Ipeirotis, prediction markets, Prediction Markets Compared, speaker, Stefan Luckner, Stefan Stathel, Third Workshop on Prediction Markets, Todd H. Kuethe, Todd Henderson, Todd Kuethe, United States | Leave a comment

CFTC’s Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts

Posted on June 17, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

CFTC – (PDF file): CFTC’s Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts – SUMMARY: The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (Commission or CFTC) is soliciting comment on the appropriate regulatory treatment of financial agreements offered by markets commonly … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Regulations | Tagged 202.418.5521, 202.418.5578, AEI-Brookings Joint Center, American Enterprise Institute, bet markets, betting markets, binary options, Bruce Fekrat, by-products, Capper, catastrophe single event insurance option contracts, CFTC, Chicago Board Of Trade, commodity futures, commodity futures contracts, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, commodity options, commodity options contracts, Congress, cottonseed oil, crude oil, D.C., David A. Stawick, definitions, Director, Division of Market Oversight, Eric W. Zitzewitz, event contracts, event derivative markets, event derivatives, event futures, event markets, Explainers, futures contracts, futures markets, governor, Hal R. Varian, House Committee on Agriculture, House-Senate Conference Committee, InTrade, Iraq, Jason Ruspini, Justin Wolfers, laws, legalization, livestock products, Michael Abramowicz, Michael Gorham, natural gas, office, particular candidate for political office, particular presidential candidate, Paul C. Tetlock, Paul Wolfowitz, peanut oil, Porter, prediction markets, predictive tools, producer, real-money prediction markets, Regulations, retail customers, retail market participants, retail users, Robert W. Hahn, Secretary, Senate, Senate Committee on Agriculture and Forestry, South Carolina, soybean oil, Special Counsel, specific candidate, specific farmer, the New York Times, The University of Iowa, Three Lafayette Centre, Tom W. Bell, Trader, United States, United States Of America, University of Iowa Departments of Accounting and Economics, University's College of Business Administration, USD, Valencia, Vernon Smith, Washington, West Coast, young economist | 24 Comments

The best researchers on prediction markets

Posted on June 4, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

CFM: Scholars Check that CFM page for updates. And contact me so I can make additions to the list. (I’ll then re-publish that updated list on Midas Oracle.) – Michael Abramowicz – Michael B. Abramowicz – (Law School, George Washington … Continue reading →

Posted in People, Resources - References | Tagged Adam, Adam Meirowitz, Administration, American Enterprise Institute, Anderson School, Andrew Leigh, Anita Elberse, Anthony M. Kwasnica, Arizona, Australia, Australian National University, Austria, Becker Center, Bernardo A. Huberman, Bernd H. Ankenbrand, Bernd Skiera, Bilkent University, British Columbia, Business, C. Schelling - Thomas Schelling, California, California Institute of Technology, Canada, Centre Nationale, Change, Chapman University, Charles A. Holt, Charles F. Manski, Charles Holt, Charles R. Plott, Chicago, Chief Economist, Chris Hibbert, Collective Intelligence, College of Arts and Sciences, College of Business, College of Business Administration, College of Management, Connecticut, corporate prediction markets, D. Hamilton - James Hamilton, D.C., Daniel Reeves, Dartmouth College, David M. Pennock, David Paton, David Porter, dean, Denmark, Department of Computer Science, Department of Economics, Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Department of Insurance and Real Estate, Department of Politics, Director, Division of Humanity and Social Sciences, e-commerce, E. Litan - Robert Litan, Economic Science Institute, Economics Department, Emile Servan-Schreiber, enterprise prediction markets, Eric Crampton, Eric W. Zitzewitz, Eric Zitzewitz, Erik Snowberg, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Executive Director, F. Manski - Charles Manski, Florida, Forrest Nelson, France, Friedrich August Von Hayek, Frontier Research Center for Global Change, Gary William Flake, George Mason University, George R. Neumann, George Washington University, Gerhard Ortner, Germany, Goethe University, Google, Graduate School, H. Ankenbrand - Bernd Ankenbrand, Hal R. Varian, Harvard Business School, Harvard University, Henry B. Tippie College of Business, HP Labs, IIT Center for Financial Markets, Illinois, Illinois Institute of Technology, information aggregation tool, Information Dynamics Lab, Information Services & Process Innovation Lab, internal prediction markets, Iowa, J. Arrow - Kenneth Arrow, James Annan, James D. Hamilton, James Surowiecki, Japan, John O. Ledyard, Joyce Berg, Joyce E. Berg, Justin J. Wolfers, Justin Wolfers, Kansas, Kansas City, Kauffman Foundation, Kay-Yut Chen, Keith Gamble, Keith Jacks Gamble, Kellogg, Kenneth J. Arrow, Kentucky, L. Savage - Sam Savage, Lance Fortnow, Lance J. Fortnow, law school, Lecturer, LEEPS, LEEPS laboratory, Leighton Vaughan-Williams, Leslie R. Fine, London Business School, Los Angeles, M. Kwasnica - Anthony Kwasnica, M. Todd Henderson, manager, Marco Ottaviani, Martin Spann, Maryland, Massachusetts, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, McCormick School of Engineering, Michael Abramowicz, Michael B. Abramowicz, Michael Gorham, Michael P. Wellman, Michael Wellman, Michigan, Micro-Economic and Social Systems, Microsoft, Missouri, MIT, MIT Center, New Jersey, New York, New York City, New Zealand, Nicolas Lambert, North Carolina, Northwestern University, Norwestern University, Nottingham Trent University, Nottingham University, Paris, Paul C. Tetlock, Paul Milgrom, Paul W. Rhode, Penn State University, Pennsylvania, Peter Norman Sorensen, Philip E. Tetlock, Philip Tetlock, prediction markets, Princeton University, Principal Research Scientist, private prediction markets, Professor, professors, R. Varian - Hal Varian, Rahul Sami, Recherche Scientifique, Reg-Markets Center, Research School of Social Sciences, researchers, Richard Borghesi, Richard Roll, Robert E. Litan, Robert Forsythe, Robert J. Shiller, Robert W. Hahn, Robin D. Hanson, Robin Hanson, Russ Ray, Ryan Oprea, Sam L. Savage, San Diego, San Marcos, Santa Cruz, Sauder School of Business, Saul Levmore, scholars, School of Business, School of Information, School of Management, School of Public Affair, Sciences, Social Computing Lab, software architect, Stanford University, Steve Levitt, Steven D. Levitt, Steven Levitt, Stuart School of Business, technology, Texas, Texas State University, Thomas A. Rietz, Thomas C. Schelling, Thomas Gruca, Thomas S Gruca, Thomas W. Malone, Thomas W. Ross, Todd A. Proebsting, Todd Proebsting, Tom Malone, Tom W. Bell, Tracy Mullen, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States, University of Applied Sciences, University of Arizona, University of British Columbia, University of California at Los Angeles, University of Canterbury, University of Chicago, University of Copenhagen, University of Iowa, University of Kansas, University of Louisville, University of Maryland, University of Michigan, University of North Carolina, University of Passau, University of Pennsylvania, University of South Florida, University of Texas at Austin, University of Virginia, Vancouver, Vernon L. Smith, Vice President for Research and Policy, Virginia, W. Flake - Gary Flake, W. Rhode - Paul Rhode, W. Ross - Thomas Ross, Washington, Werner Antweiler, Wharton Business School, Witten, Witten/Herdecke University, Yahoo! Research Labs, Yale University, Zocalo Project Manager | Leave a comment

Predictocracy Book Review

Posted on March 8, 2008 by Alex Kirtland

I did a modest review of Michael Abramowicz’s new book: Predictocracy: Market Mechanisms for Public and Private Decision Making. You can read it here. In short, interesting, in an odd sort of way, yet worth the read. ~alex UsableMarkets

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Meta), Resources - References | Tagged decision making, Michael Abramowicz, Predictocracy, Private | 1 Comment

The 45-degree Line

Posted on January 30, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Via Steve Roman, Michael Abramowicz.

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets | Tagged Michael Abramowicz | Leave a comment

Predictocracy = Market Mechanisms for Public and Private Decision Making

Posted on January 28, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Robin Hanson: [...] The main problem with using [Michael] Abramowicz’s book as a “technical manual”, however, is that he’s never actually seen, much less touched, most of the blocks he describes. His conclusions are not supported or tested by math … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Collective Decision Making, Collective Forecasting, Economics, Politics | Tagged Collective Decision Making, Decision Making Robin Hanson, decision making, decision markets, decision-aid markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, futarchy, market web, Michael Abramowicz, prediction markets, Predictocracy, Private, Robin Hanson, web address | 2 Comments

Second Workshop on Prediction Markets – San Diego, California, U.S.A. – June 12, 2007

Posted on June 10, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

Second Workshop on Prediction Markets – San Diego, California, U.S.A. – June 12, 2007 — 8:30 â€“ 8:35 Opening remark 8:35 â€“ 9:30 Amit Gandhi, “Rational Expectations at the Racetrack : Testing Expected Utility Using Prediction Market Prices” (20 min) … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Events & Meetings | Tagged Amit Gandhi, Bernd H. Ankenbrand, California, Chris Hibbert, Daniel M. Reeves, David M. Pennock, David Perry, Dirk Glienke, Electronic Arts, Emile Servan-Schreiber, Eric Zitzewitz, Erik Snowberg, John O. Ledyard, Lance Fortnow, Matthew Fogarty, Michael Abramowicz, Michael Gebauer, Michael Wellman, Natasha Foutz, Paul J. Healy, prediction markets, Rahul Sami, Rica Gonen, Ricardo Serrano-Padial, Robin D. Hanson, Russell Anderson, San Diego, Stanford University, Stanko Dimitrov, Stefan Luckner, Steven Gjerstad, United States, University of Chicago, Wolfgang Jank, Yiling Chen | Leave a comment

The methodology of prediction market event study â€” Multiple Causes Edition — REDUX

Posted on February 14, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

Keith Jacks Gamble on Michael Abramowicz’s Gamble on Gambling on Keith Jacks Gambleâ€™s Super Bowl Analysis Highlights: I agree that the simultaneity problem and the anticipation problem are confounding factors in assessing a player’s contribution to his team’s chance of … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Data), Analysis (Meta) | Tagged Chicago Bears, coach, director at Protrade, football, Indianapolis Colts, Jim Sorgi, Keith Jacks Gamble, Kevin Garnett, Michael Abramowicz, Peyton Manning, Player, Reggie Wayne, research director, Rex Grossman, Robert Merton, Super Bowl, Tom Brady | 1 Comment

Predictocracy: Market Mechanisms for Public and Private Decisionmaking — THE MARKET WEB

Posted on February 13, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

Predictocracy: Market Mechanisms for Public and Private Decisionmaking – by Michael Abramowicz – 2007-xx-xx – (fall) Chapter: The Market Web – (towards the end of the book) — Michael Abramowicz: If prediction markets should become commonplace, decisionmakers might link to … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta) | Tagged Bo Cowgill, computer software, David Pennock, Decisionmaking, Google, market web, Michael Abramowicz, Microsoft, observer, Private, real estate, software engineer, subsidized individual market web providers, Todd Proebsting, WEB Predictocracy, Yahoo! | 5 Comments

Tag Archives: Michael Abramowicz

Meta

Recent Posts