Tag Archives: Mechanism Designs

David Pennock on Predictalot — [LINK]

Posted on March 25, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

… in Freakonomics.

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchange & Market Designs, Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets, Mechanism Designs | Tagged bets, Betting, betting markets, David Pennock, event derivative markets, event derivatives, exchange designs, Freakonomics, market designs, Mechanism Designs, Predictalot, prediction markets | Leave a comment

CrowdCast = market mechanism = binary spreads with a market maker

Posted on July 20, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Leslie Fine (CrowdCast Chief Scientist) to me: Actually, our mechanism is a market, it’s just not a stock market. We use an automated market maker to efficiently price every bet, adjust crowd beliefs, and price an interim sell. In essence, … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Collective Forecasting, Exchange & Market Designs, Exchanges & Markets, Market Makers (Automated), Mechanism Designs | Tagged automated market makers, betting markets, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence, collective intelligence that predicts, CrowdCast, event derivative markets, Leslie Fine, market designs, market makers, market mechanisms, markets, Mechanism Designs, prediction markets | 2 Comments

CrowdCast = Collective Forecasting = Collective Intelligence That Predicts

Posted on June 25, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

The fine people at CrowdCast (Mat Fogarty and Leslie Fine) are finally out today with their brand-new, no-trading, collective forecasting mechanism. The purpose is to aggregate information across one organization so as to generate the most objective business forecasts. The … Continue reading →

Posted in Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Consulting, Exchanges & Markets, Mechanism Designs, Software | Tagged Betting, betting markets, Collective Forecasting, collective intelligence mechanisms, corporate prediction markets, CrowdCast, employee intelligence, enterprise intelligence, enterprise prediction markets, event derivative markets, forecasting, information aggregation, information aggregation mechanisms, internal prediction markets, Leslie Fine, market designs, Market Scoring Rules, Mechanism Designs, MSR, polling, prediction markets, private prediction markets, trading, Xpree | 3 Comments

Why CrowdCast ditched Robin Hanson’s MSR as the engine of its IAM software

Posted on April 29, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

- Leslie Fine of CrowdCast: Chris, As Emile points out, in 2003 I started experimenting with (and empirically validating) alternatives to the traditional stock-market metaphor that will be more viable in corporate settings. We found the level of confusion and … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Mechanism Designs | Tagged Betting, Collective Forecasting, collective intelligence mechanisms, corporate prediction markets, CrowdCast, enterprise prediction markets, information aggregation, internal prediction markets, Leslie Fine, market designs, Market Scoring Rules, Mechanism Designs, MSR, polling, prediction markets, private prediction markets, Robin Hanson, trading, Xpree | Leave a comment

Smarter exchange mechanisms

Posted on March 3, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

The Pennock interpretation.

Posted in Finance, Mechanism Designs | Tagged David Pennock, exchange mechanisms, market designs, market mechanisms, Mechanism Designs | Leave a comment

CDA, MSR, the automated market makers, and the human market makers

Posted on September 17, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Posted in Exchange & Market Designs, Exchanges & Markets, Market Makers (Automated), Market Makers (Human), Mechanism Designs, Midas Oracle Archives | Tagged automated market makers, betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, HubDub, market designs, Market Scoring Rules, Mechanism Designs, MSR, play-money prediction markets, prediction markets, Robin Hanson, zigzagging | Leave a comment

Nigel Eccles (the CEO of HubDub) and Robin Hanson (the inventor of MSR) have some explaining to make about the extreme zigzagging of the Barack Obama event derivative (in blue on this static compound chart). Look at the right end of the chart.

Posted on September 13, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- UPDATE: Nigel Eccles: There was a bug in that chart which is now fixed. However the excess volatility is still there. The problem is that our early markets were created with a liquidity parameter which was too low. That … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Data), Analysis (Meta), Exchange & Market Designs, Exchanges & Markets, Market Makers (Automated), Market Makers (Human), Market Prices & Probabilities, Mechanism Designs, Software | Tagged automated market makers, betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, HubDub, market designs, Market Scoring Rules, Mechanism Designs, MSR, play-money prediction markets, prediction markets, Robin Hanson, zigzagging | 15 Comments

BetFair traders are getting ready for the BOOM.

Posted on July 23, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

BetFair: [...] weâ€™ll be enabling the new matching process on soccer match odds markets, tennis match odds markets and greyhound win markets taking place on the UK exchange shortly. – Previously: BetFair’s new bet-matching logic…. (endorsed by Giberson International Incorporated). … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchange & Market Designs, Exchanges & Markets, Mechanism Designs | Tagged bet matching, bet matching logic, bet-matching engine, bet-matching process, bet-matching system, BetFair, Giberson International Incorporated, market designs, Market Liquidity, matching bets, matching trades, Mechanism Designs, prediction markets, soccer, tennis, trading engine, United Kingdom | 5 Comments

How BetFair stole Bastille Day from the French —and how Ed Murray became BetFair’s best friend (NOT A HOAX).

Posted on July 15, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- Michael Giberson (professor of economics and chairman of our scientific advisory board): Actually, I would expect the change to improve liquidity, but the real surprise for Ed Murray is that other than his liquidity argument, I pretty much agree … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchange & Market Designs, Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Mechanism Designs | Tagged Bastille Day, bet matching, bet matching logic, bet-matching engine, bet-matching process, bet-matching system, BetFair, chairman, market designs, Market Liquidity, matching bets, matching trades, Mechanism Designs, Michael Giberson, prediction markets, professor of economics, professor of economics and chairman, Trader, trading engine | 29 Comments

In a blow to the French, BetFair choose Bastille Day to premiere the revised version of the bet-matching logic of their prediction markets. — IMPROVEMENT MEANS BETTER LIQUIDITY FOR THEIR EVENT DERIVATIVE TRADERS.

Posted on July 14, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- BetFair: Improvements to Betfairâ€™s bet matching logic today, Monday 14th July: Whatâ€™s changing? Weâ€™ve improved the code that matches bets. As well as matching backs against lays as weâ€™ve always done, weâ€™ll also try to match your bet against … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Exchange & Market Designs, Exchanges & Markets, Explainers, Market Liquidity, Mechanism Designs | Tagged basketball, Bastille Day, bet matching, bet matching logic, bet-matching engine, bet-matching process, bet-matching system, BetFair, boxing, cricket, football, Germany, horse racing, ice hockey, manager, market designs, Market Liquidity, matching bets, matching trades, Mechanism Designs, Oxford, Player, prediction markets, Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer, RugBY League, Rugby Union, Sheffield, snooker, soccer, Spain, tennis, trading engine, Volleyball | 3 Comments

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