Mat Fogarty | Midas Oracle .ORG

You know what I thought when I first saw that picture (little Fogarty planted next to Master Of Credit Alan Greenspan)?… I thought, well, it’s about time that the prediction market industry does the “product endorsement by celebrity” marketing thing. BetFair premiered that with John McCririck.

Chris F. Masse August 14th, 2008

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TV-famous horse racing pundit: John McCririck.

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Tags: Alan Greenspan, BetFair, corporate prediction markets, enterprise prediction markets, event derivative markets, Humor, internal prediction markets, John McCririck, Mat Fogarty, prediction markets, private prediction markets, product endorsement by celebrity, Xpree

Look at the inconsistency between the two faces. Mat Fogarty is jubilant like if he had just stolen a big client from Inkling. Alan Greenspan, on the other hand, has a constipated look that conveys that he is fed up with all those conference co-speakers asking him out for a photo op.

Chris F. Masse August 13th, 2008

Tags: Alan Greenspan, corporate prediction markets, enterprise prediction markets, event derivative markets, Humor, internal prediction markets, Mat Fogarty, prediction markets, private prediction markets, Xpree

What prediction market software improvement did Alan Greenspan suggest to Xpree’s Mat Fogarty?

Chris F. Masse August 13th, 2008

Tags: Alan Greenspan, corporate prediction markets, enterprise prediction markets, event derivative markets, internal prediction markets, Mat Fogarty, prediction markets, private prediction markets, Xpree

The best presentations from the world’s best conference on enterprise prediction markets —ever

Chris F. Masse June 10th, 2008

Awesome slides in bold.

Brought to you by Koleman Strumpf (circa November 2007):

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Henry Berg, Microsoft <slides>
Discussant: Robin Hanson (George Mason Department of Economics) <slides>
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Christina Ann LaComb, GE (The Imagination Market; abstract is free, text is gated) <slides>
Discussant: Marco Ottaviani (Kellogg School of Management, Management and Strategy) <slides>
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Dawn Keller, Best Buy (Best Buy’s TAGTRADE Market) <slides>
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Bo Cowgill, Google (Putting Crowd Wisdom to Work) <slides>
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Jim Lavoie, Co-Founder and CEO, Rite-Solutions <slides>
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David Perry, Co-Founder and President, Consensus Point <slides>
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Mat Fogarty, Founder and CEO, Xpree Inc <slides>

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Tom W. Bell, Chapman University School of Law <slides>

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Tags: Best Buy, Bo Cowgill, Christina Ann LaComb, Consensus Point, corporate prediction markets, David Perry, Dawn Keller, enterprise prediction markets, GE, General Electric, Google, Henry Berg, internal prediction markets, Jim Lavoie, Koleman Strumpf, Marco Ottaviani, Market Scoring Rules, Mat Fogarty, Microsoft, MSR, private prediction markets, Rite-Solutions, Robin Hanson, Xpree

Innovation Mechanism = Voting Mechanism + Prediction Market Mechanism

Chris F. Masse May 7th, 2008

Xpree’s Mat Fogarty (responding to Jed Christiansen, even though Jed didn’t talk to him but to Emile Servan-Schreiber —argh, kids, today, interrupting adults’ conversations ):

We have had success combining voting to rank the ideas, then prediction markets to analyze the potential of the top ranked ideas. The phrasing in the prediction market needs to be quite specific, if we invested in idea A, how long would it take to get to market? how much would we sell in the first year? If the company does not invest in idea A, then the money bet in the market is returned to the user.

With long development cycles this can be challenging as it requires keeping the market active until ship, or for the sales estimate, one year after ship.

Of course, you could use a preference market - but this has issues of information cascades and rewarding of group think.

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Xpree

Here’s the Xpree stuff which Mat is talking about.

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Tags: corporate prediction markets, enterprise prediction markets, innovation, internal prediction markets, Jed Christiansen, Mat Fogarty, Open Innovation Markets, private prediction markets, vote, voting, Xpree

“Xpree, the leader in prediction market forecasting technology for corporations”

Chris F. Masse March 21st, 2008

I like Mat Fogarty and Xpree, I think they bring new and needed forecasting competency to the field of prediction markets, but I think that this statement is untrue and thus its author looks a bit childish. I can’t believe that Mat Fogarty would output such a statement. To say that Xpree is “the leader” in this industry segment is like saying that The Dallas Morning News is the biggest newspaper on Earth.

REPLACE IT WITH: …”Xpree, the most innovative [*] supplier of prediction market forecasting technology for corporations”… that would be closer to the truth… and less subject to controversy… and ridicule.

[*] See rhe comments.

UPDATE: Mat Fogarty changed it for “Xpree, the most awesome prediction market forecasting technology for corporations”.

Tags: Mat Fogarty, Xpree