Tag Archives: market web

Predictocracy = Market Mechanisms for Public and Private Decision Making

Robin Hanson: [...] The main problem with using [Michael] Abramowicz’s book as a “technical manual”, however, is that he’s never actually seen, much less touched, most of the blocks he describes. His conclusions are not supported or tested by math … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Collective Decision Making, Collective Forecasting, Economics, Politics | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Predictocracy: Market Mechanisms for Public and Private Decisionmaking — THE MARKET WEB

Predictocracy: Market Mechanisms for Public and Private Decisionmaking – by Michael Abramowicz – 2007-xx-xx – (fall) Chapter: The Market Web – (towards the end of the book) — Michael Abramowicz: If prediction markets should become commonplace, decisionmakers might link to … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis (Meta) | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments

The methodology of prediction market event study — Multiple Causes Edition

Michael Abramowicz on Keith Jacks Gamble’s Super Bowl Analysis Highlights: But there are at least two reasons to be skeptical of this approach as a general way of assessing player contributions: (1) The simultaneity problem. Football is a team sport, … Continue reading

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Data), Analysis (Meta) | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments