Tag Archives: market designs

David Pennock on Predictalot — [LINK]

… in Freakonomics.

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchange & Market Designs, Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets, Mechanism Designs | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

CrowdCast = market mechanism = binary spreads with a market maker

Leslie Fine (CrowdCast Chief Scientist) to me: Actually, our mechanism is a market, it’s just not a stock market. We use an automated market maker to efficiently price every bet, adjust crowd beliefs, and price an interim sell. In essence, … Continue reading

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CrowdCast = Collective Forecasting = Collective Intelligence That Predicts

The fine people at CrowdCast (Mat Fogarty and Leslie Fine) are finally out today with their brand-new, no-trading, collective forecasting mechanism. The purpose is to aggregate information across one organization so as to generate the most objective business forecasts. The … Continue reading

Posted in Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Consulting, Exchanges & Markets, Mechanism Designs, Software | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments

Why CrowdCast ditched Robin Hanson’s MSR as the engine of its IAM software

- Leslie Fine of CrowdCast: Chris, As Emile points out, in 2003 I started experimenting with (and empirically validating) alternatives to the traditional stock-market metaphor that will be more viable in corporate settings. We found the level of confusion and … Continue reading

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Smarter exchange mechanisms

The Pennock interpretation.

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The pros and cons of HubDub

Ari Garber Nigel, please do contact Ari to give him additional info he might be interested in. [INSTANT UPDATE: Already done. ] Best wishes to Ari in his pursuit for better understanding the prediction markets. And Ari is welcome on … Continue reading

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3-outcome prediction markets

Our good doctor Servan-Schreiber is not as smart as he thinks he is. Let me explain. The great thing that NewsFutures has introduced to the world is prediction markets with perfectly symmetrical opposite outcomes. It is either white or black, … Continue reading

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Criticism about InTrade’s prediction markets on the InTrade prediction markets

- Manipulation? – Logical flaw? – ADDED BONUS: Additional thought on arbitrage. UPDATE: The HubDub PM on who will win the 2nd debate.

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CDA, MSR, the automated market makers, and the human market makers

Posted in Exchange & Market Designs, Exchanges & Markets, Market Makers (Automated), Market Makers (Human), Mechanism Designs, Midas Oracle Archives | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Nigel Eccles (the CEO of HubDub) and Robin Hanson (the inventor of MSR) have some explaining to make about the extreme zigzagging of the Barack Obama event derivative (in blue on this static compound chart). Look at the right end of the chart.

- UPDATE: Nigel Eccles: There was a bug in that chart which is now fixed. However the excess volatility is still there. The problem is that our early markets were created with a liquidity parameter which was too low. That … Continue reading

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Data), Analysis (Meta), Exchange & Market Designs, Exchanges & Markets, Market Makers (Automated), Market Makers (Human), Market Prices & Probabilities, Mechanism Designs, Software | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | 15 Comments