Tag Archives: Lawrence O’Donnell

Political Forecasting by Pundits — [VIDEO]

Excellent editorial from Lawrence O’Donnell. Make sure to watch the whole segment till the end.

Posted in Forecasting (Science & Practice), Individual Intelligence - Anti Consensus, Journalism, Politics | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Barack Obama will finish off Hillary Clinton by June 15.

- Lawrence O’Donnell (a leftist journalist –but a good one, whom I appreciate): A senior campaign official and Clinton confidante has told me that there will be a Democratic nominee by June 15. [...] Yes, Clinton spokespersons publicly seem to … Continue reading

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Leading & Lagging Indicators, Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

No blog reaction about Justin Wolfers’ prediction market piece in the WSJ.

Yet. That’s key to see whether his flavor of prediction market journalism (heavily based on a single technique called prediction market event study) can take off. As I said in yesterday’s blog post, even though his work is interesting, he … Continue reading

Posted in Prediction Journalism | Tagged , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Michael Bloomberg for US President??

Michael Bloomberg to run as Independent in 2008 Previous: Under this hypothetical scenario, the money would support a targeted advertising campaign to sell an Electoral College strategy to voters. — The McLaughlin Group (MP4 file): MR. MCLAUGHLIN: Issue Four: Back … Continue reading

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Prediction Markets vs. Political Pundits – 2006 US Senate (GOP control + individual races)

… More exactly TradeSports-InTrade and Iowa Electronic Markets VERSUS The McLaughlin Group (PBS). Reason Magazine writes: Weirdly, the McLaughlin Group, the fustiest of all the talking head shows, had one of the best records this cycle, with Eleanor Clift, Lawrence … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment