The secret feed that Jed Christiansen doesn’t want you to fetch
Chris F. Masse May 12th, 2008
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His comment feed URL is:
- http://mercury-rac.disqus.com/c/975/comments.rss
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Archive for the tag 'Jed Christiansen'
Using enterprise prediction markets too early in the innovation process is BAD.
Chris F. Masse May 11th, 2008
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I don’t think that prediction markets need to be the incentive.
I think that when it comes to generating ideas, you need to be as open and inclusive as possible. The process should allow anyone that submits or helps develop an idea to share in any rewards from that idea. Once it’s developed, then it can move to a stage where you can do forecasting via a prediction market.
Using a prediction market too early can do two things:
1- Poor forecasting due to social influence.
2- Limit revolutionary new ideas. It’s too easy to short an idea that looks strange, when in fact it looks odd because it’s revolutionary. The idea process should foster and develop ideas, not make them compete against each other.
I’m glad to have sparked a little discussion here.
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Previously: Innovation Mechanism = Voting Mechanism + Prediction Market Mechanism
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Sphere: Related ContentInnovation Mechanism = Voting Mechanism + Prediction Market Mechanism
Chris F. Masse May 7th, 2008
Xpree’s Mat Fogarty (responding to Jed Christiansen, even though Jed didn’t talk to him but to Emile Servan-Schreiber 
—argh, kids, today, interrupting adults’ conversations ):
We have had success combining voting to rank the ideas, then prediction markets to analyze the potential of the top ranked ideas. The phrasing in the prediction market needs to be quite specific, if we invested in idea A, how long would it take to get to market? how much would we sell in the first year? If the company does not invest in idea A, then the money bet in the market is returned to the user.
With long development cycles this can be challenging as it requires keeping the market active until ship, or for the sales estimate, one year after ship.
Of course, you could use a preference market - but this has issues of information cascades and rewarding of group think.
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Here’s the Xpree stuff which Mat is talking about.
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Sphere: Related ContentFRIGHTENING: Jed Christiansen’s prediction market blog was briefly overtaken by web spammers, who inserted invisible links to their commercial sites so as to game the Google PageRank system.
Chris F. Masse April 17th, 2008
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I wonder how that could have happened, and what IT was involved for that trick.
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Sphere: Related ContentYouTube Videos on Prediction Markets
Chris F. Masse April 3rd, 2008
I have created a “Prediction Market Videos” category in my “Links” page. I have listed there the InTrade and the Jed Christiansen webspots at YouTube.
Any other link(s) to suggest, folks?
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Jed Christiansen: What is a prediction market?
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Jed Christiansen: How can I use a prediction market for my business?
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Sphere: Related ContentWhat they need: How to use prediction markets correctly so as to forecast socially relevant future outcomes
Chris F. Masse November 6th, 2006
From the always-excellent Business Innovation Insider blog…
Addendum: Oops!… Jed Christiansen, in his comment below, reminds me that I forgot to credit the original blogger.
Sphere: Related Content
