Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: Iowa Health Prediction Market

The Iowa Health Prediction Market is usable for the probability seekers.

Written by Chris F. Masse on April 29, 2009 — Leave a Comment

Iowa Health Prediction Market
Swine Influenza Prediction Markets
I like how they use icons, and the way they display probabilities on that page. It is clear, and we can get the info real quick.
Emile tells me that IHPM was developed with NewsFutures source code, but customized by them.

Posted in Exchanges & Markets | Also tagged , , , , , ,

Flu prediction markets can correct Google Flu Trends.

Written by Chris F. Masse on December 15, 2008 — 1 Comment

2 practicing physicians laugh at using collective intelligence for nation-wide flu detection:
[...] Flu Trends tracks almost perfectly with data on influenzalike illnesses that the CDC obtains from doctors’ offices. And as an added bonus, Flu Trends detects outbreaks up to two weeks earlier, when people are still sitting at home sneezing into their keyboards. [...]
But [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Market Proposals), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Humor, Information Technology, Inventions & Innovations, Science | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Google vs. Prediction Markets — Which of the 2 will detect the flu, first?

Written by Chris F. Masse on December 3, 2008 — 4 Comments

An Irish research team hopes to make accurate forecasts of key public health indicators.
University College Cork (UCC) School of Medicine + Intrade
Dr Dylan Evans:
Prediction markets are [specialized], small-scale financial markets operated to predict future events. The idea is that the collected knowledge of many people, each with a different perspective, will be more accurate than [...]

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Philanthropy, Resources - References, Science | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Who needs the Iowa Health Prediction Exchange anymore now that we have Google Flu Trends?

Written by Chris F. Masse on November 13, 2008 — 1 Comment

- Google Flu Trends
- Iowa Health Prediction Market
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BBC
New York Times
WSJ Health blog
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Posted in Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Information Technology | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

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