Tag Archives: idea futures

New Hampshire prediction markets screwed up political forecasting in 2008. Will they be right this time? — [CHARTS]

Posted on January 10, 2012 by Chris F. Masse

The political prediction markets got the Democratic race wrong in New Hampshire, last time. More here. – New Hampshire – The Democrats – The Hillary Clinton event derivative was expired to 100. – New Hampshire – The Republicans – The … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged 2008 New Hampshire Presidential Primary, 2008 US presidential elections, accuracy, Barack Obama, betting markets, Collective Intelligence, democrats, event derivative markets, event derivatives, events, Hillary Clinton, idea futures, indicators, John McCain, New Hampshire, polls, prediction markets, US presidential elections, US primaries, wisdom of crowds | 1 Comment

Robin Hanson: My best idea was prediction markets.

Posted on June 29, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Robin Hanson‘s auto-biography (i.e., how Our Master Of All Universes views HimSelf): – Robin Hanson: Do you find it hard to summarize yourself in a few words? Me too. But I love the above quote. I have a passion, a … Continue reading →

Posted in Collective Decision Making, Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets, History, People | Tagged academia, academics, auto-biographies, betting markets, biographies, bios, Collective Decision Making, Collective Forecasting, collective intelligence that predicts, economic science, Economics, economists, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecasting, forecasts, George Mason Univeristy, idea future markets, idea futures, idea futures markets, Our Master Of All Universes, Policy Analysis Market, predicting, prediction markets, Predictions, professors, research scientists, researchers, Robin Hanson, scholars, tenure, universities | 3 Comments

In futarchy, the decisions are coercive.

Posted on June 5, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

And that makes some people uncomfortable. The debate on Robin Hanson’s idea futures (prediction markets, decision-aid markets, decision markets, futarchy, etc.) is spreading from Overcoming Bias to other blogs. Here is Robin Hanson: Nick, I never said there are prediction … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Collective Decision Making, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Inventions & Innovations | Tagged Collective Decision Making, Collective Forecasting, decision markets, decision-aid markets, event derivative markets, futarchy, idea futures, information aggregation, prediction markets, Robin Hanson | Leave a comment

ROBIN HANSON CENSORS A CONTRADICTOR.

Posted on June 2, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

As I undertand it, Robin Hanson has deleted a comment from “Dan” (someone who sided with Eric R. Weinstein), for the simple reason (to be confirmed) that Dan’s comment was 900 words long —much longer than the 500-word limit that … Continue reading →

Posted in Ethics, Prediction Journalism | Tagged betting markets, Eric R. Weinstein, Eric Weinstein, event derivative markets, idea futures, Overcoming Bias, prediction markets, Robin Hanson | Leave a comment

Traded bets — a la Robin Hanson

Posted on June 2, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

“g” commenting on Robin Hanson’s blog: the main point of the transaction [i.e., a contract floated on a market] is that it happens in a framework set up to enable third parties to extract information from the bets made. The … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets, Inventions & Innovations | Tagged betting markets, Collective Forecasting, event derivative markets, event derivatives, idea futures, prediction markets, Robin Hanson, traded bets | Leave a comment

If they stole Robin Hanson’s ideas on prediction markets, does it mean that his ideas are good?

Posted on May 27, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Robin Hanson thinks so. I would agree. What do you, guys, think?

Posted in Collective Forecasting, Economics, Exchanges & Markets, Inventions & Innovations | Tagged idea futures, prediction markets, Robin Hanson | Leave a comment

Flawed New Hampshire polls = Non-accurate New Hampshire prediction markets

Posted on April 28, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

The most comprehensive analysis ever conducted of presidential primary polls: “a handful of methodological missteps and miscalculations combined to undermine the accuracy of predictions about presidential primary winners in New Hampshire and three other states.” Via Mister the Great Research … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Leading & Lagging Indicators, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged 2008 New Hampshire Presidential Primary, 2008 US presidential elections, accuracy, Barack Obama, Collective Intelligence, democrats, Hillary Clinton, idea futures, indicators, John McCain, New Hampshire, polls, prediction markets, US presidential elections, US primaries, wisdom of crowds | 2 Comments