Tag Archives: Gordon Brown
Hubdub Hot Predictions This Week
Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week – and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.
World
The complete tragedy of Air France Flight 447 may never be known, but [...]
The British prime minister will leave office this month —dixit the BetFair traders.
Gordon Brown to leave office before the end of June 2009:
Addendum: To the despair of both Prof Panos and Wiser Than The Crowd, here is a link back to the recent “failures” of the prediction markets.
Excerpts of the BetFair’s answers to their traders’ questions
About the new bet-matching logic:
It’s not clear why you believe that the majority of those customers who use Betfair’s forum are unhappy about the introduction of the improved matching logic. The sport this will most significantly benefit is football [soccer], and there’s nothing we’ve heard from our football customers that would suggest they’re unhappy, nor [...]
A big YES to insider trading on prediction markets
Mike Smithson publishes info showing UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s decision to call off a general election was known to some bettors before that decision was made public. And he concludes:
One of the risks of political betting is that at times you can be gambling against those who are “in the know”. There’s nothing illegal [...]
Yes, Virginia, BetFair does organize socially valuable prediction markets in UK politics.
Mike Smithson’s effort is paying off. Here are the BetFair political prediction markets:
Cabinet Exit Dates
Chancellor
Foreign Secretary
Home Secretary
Cabinet Specials
Next Chancellor
Next Foreign Secretary
Next Home Secretary
Next Prime Minister
Leader Exit Dates
David Cameron
Gordon Brown
Next General Election
Election Date
Most Seats
Overall Majority
Party Leaders
Next Lib Dem Leader
The prediction exchanges (betting exchanges) that organize the most socially valuable prediction markets are InTrade and PopSci PPX, [...]
We won’t have any UK political elections anytime soon.
Wall Street Journal $$$:
Prime Minister Gordon Brown ruled out calling an early election Saturday, ending weeks of speculation that he would soon seek a stronger mandate from the electorate.
Mike Smithson of PolitcalBetting.com will have to be patient.
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BetFair – December 2007 or Earlier
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UPDADE: For Mike Smithson, Gordon Brown lacks sincerity…
How does a spread-betting exchange work?
Mike Smithson explains to you how to speculate on SpreadFair with regards to the next Gordon Brown re-election. (Beware, British traders. Spread betting is very risky.)
United Kingdom / Great Britain – Chancellor of the Exchequer: Alistair Darling
BetFair prediciton market on the next Chancellor is settled.
Winner: Alistair Darling
Alistair Darling – Wikipedia – BBC
Chancellor of the Exchequer = Secretary of Treasury
Previous: UNITED KINGDOM: Who will be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer after Gordon Brown?
United Kingdom Politics – Next Labour Leader
BetFair prediction market settled
Winner: Gordon Brown
UNITED KINGDOM: Who will be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer after Gordon Brown?
Alistair Darling – Wikipedia – BBC
Chancellor of the Exchequer = Secretary of Treasury
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