Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: Google Trends

Could Google Have Caught Swine Flu (a.k.a. Mexican Flu, or H1N1) Early?

Written by Chris F. Masse on April 30, 2009 — 1 Comment
Posted in Forecasting (Science & Practice), The Internet | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Predicting the Present with Google Trends

Written by Chris F. Masse on April 10, 2009 — Leave a Comment

Predicting the Present with Google Trends – (PDF file) – by Al Varian et al.
Google Trends + Google Insights For Search
Via Prof Levitt
Previously: Flu predictions based on querying behavior (on Google and Yahoo!) are somewhat less impressive than simply looking to the recent past of flu levels.

Posted in Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Forecasting (Science & Practice), The Internet | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Flu prediction markets can correct Google Flu Trends.

Written by Chris F. Masse on December 15, 2008 — 1 Comment

2 practicing physicians laugh at using collective intelligence for nation-wide flu detection:
[...] Flu Trends tracks almost perfectly with data on influenzalike illnesses that the CDC obtains from doctors’ offices. And as an added bonus, Flu Trends detects outbreaks up to two weeks earlier, when people are still sitting at home sneezing into their keyboards. [...]
But [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Market Proposals), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Humor, Information Technology, Inventions & Innovations, Science | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Google vs. Prediction Markets — Which of the 2 will detect the flu, first?

Written by Chris F. Masse on December 3, 2008 — 4 Comments

An Irish research team hopes to make accurate forecasts of key public health indicators.
University College Cork (UCC) School of Medicine + Intrade
Dr Dylan Evans:
Prediction markets are [specialized], small-scale financial markets operated to predict future events. The idea is that the collected knowledge of many people, each with a different perspective, will be more accurate than [...]

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Philanthropy, Resources - References, Science | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Google Trends, as seen by Jason Carver

Written by Chris F. Masse on November 21, 2008 — Leave a Comment

That smart young man (well, smarter than I am, at least) configured Google Trends so we can make comparisons between TradeSports, InTrade, BetFair and the keyword “prediction markets”.
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With BetFair:

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Without BetFair:

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Posted in Exchanges & Markets | Also tagged , , , ,

Google Trends of TradeSports, InTrade, BetFair, and “prediction markets”

Written by Chris F. Masse on November 20, 2008 — 2 Comments

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Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce | Also tagged , , ,

Who needs the Iowa Health Prediction Exchange anymore now that we have Google Flu Trends?

Written by Chris F. Masse on November 13, 2008 — 1 Comment

- Google Flu Trends
- Iowa Health Prediction Market
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BBC
New York Times
WSJ Health blog
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Posted in Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Information Technology | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Monitor the web traffic of TradeSports.com, InTrade.com, BetFair.com, Betdaq.com, NewsFutures.com, HubDub.com, etc. —thanks to Google Trends.

Written by Chris F. Masse on June 20, 2008 — Leave a Comment

Via Matt Cutts
Google Trends for Websites
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TradeSports.com
InTrade.com
BetFair.com
Betdaq.com
NewsFutures.com
HubDub.com
etc.
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UPDATE: Click on this SAI story to have the laugh of your life…!!!…
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Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Information Technology, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce, The Internet | Also tagged , , ,

Spot the red line. The future of prediction market journalism is on blogs —not on dead-tree media. (((Well, all dead-tree media have blogs, now.)))

Written by Chris F. Masse on May 11, 2008 — Leave a Comment
Posted in Prediction Journalism | Also tagged , , , , , , , , ,

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