Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: Google Flu Trends

Could Google Have Caught Swine Flu (a.k.a. Mexican Flu, or H1N1) Early?

Flu prediction markets can correct Google Flu Trends.

2 practicing physicians laugh at using collective intelligence for nation-wide flu detection:
[...] Flu Trends tracks almost perfectly with data on influenzalike illnesses that the CDC obtains from doctors’ offices. And as an added bonus, Flu Trends detects outbreaks up to two weeks earlier, when people are still sitting at home sneezing into their keyboards. [...]
But [...]

Google vs. Prediction Markets — Which of the 2 will detect the flu, first?

An Irish research team hopes to make accurate forecasts of key public health indicators.
University College Cork (UCC) School of Medicine + Intrade
Dr Dylan Evans:
Prediction markets are [specialized], small-scale financial markets operated to predict future events. The idea is that the collected knowledge of many people, each with a different perspective, will be more accurate than [...]

Who needs the Iowa Health Prediction Exchange anymore now that we have Google Flu Trends?

- Google Flu Trends
- Iowa Health Prediction Market
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BBC
New York Times
WSJ Health blog
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