Tag Archives: George Gallup

Prediction markets compete against GROUPS of experts.

Posted on December 18, 2006 by Chris F. Masse

From Anthony Townsend’s Confab notes (cited for the third time, I should pay him royalties): But as Adam Siegel, IFTF’s partner at Inkling pointed out, there are 3 main reasons why prediction markets fail: #1. People don’t understand the concept … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce | Tagged Adam Siegel, Anthony Townsend, David Perry, George Gallup | Leave a comment

Historical prediction markets: Kudos to Koleman Strumpf and Paul Rhode

Posted on November 7, 2006 by Chris F. Masse

Excerpted at CFM and cited here, the NewsWeek article (heavily featuring professor Justin Wolfers and consultant David Perry) is a very good read. The driving force behind the WSXâ€”betting on election outcomesâ€”is nothing new. Even though the first organized markets … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, History | Tagged Abraham Lincoln, consultant, David Perry, Deep Throat, George Gallup, heavily featuring professor, Justin Wolfers, Koleman Strumpf, New York, NewsWeek, Paul Rhode Excerpted, Paul Rhode, prediction markets, the New York Times, USD, Wall Street, Washington | 2 Comments

Faulty polls screw up the political prediction markets. – REDUX – The “no polls” case, now.

Posted on October 26, 2006 by Chris F. Masse

Two days ago, I stated brashly that political prediction markets aggregate the polls, mainly. (Mike Linksvayer nuanced my propos, in the comment area.) GOP Keeps Senate, Loses House, Betting Site Says. – [US political prediction markets] – by Ronald Kessler … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, History | Tagged George Gallup, Koch professor, Koch professor of economics, Koleman S. Strumpf, Mike Linksvayer, New York, Paul W. Rhode, professor of economics, Republican Party, Ronald Kessler, Senate, the New York Times, United States, University of Kansas School of Business, Wall Street | Leave a comment

Faulty polls screw up the political prediction markets.

Posted on October 24, 2006 by Chris F. Masse

In today’s soapbox: Yet it turns out that in 2002, IEM markets indicated that Republicans would lose the house. Which we now know is wrong. They were pretty consistent in their 2004 presidential prediction, however. I recall that Surowiecki discussed … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged David Perry, George Gallup, Iowa, Paul Gomme, predictive market-generated technology, Senate | 3 Comments

Tag Archives: George Gallup

Prediction markets compete against GROUPS of experts.

Historical prediction markets: Kudos to Koleman Strumpf and Paul Rhode

Faulty polls screw up the political prediction markets. – REDUX – The “no polls” case, now.

Faulty polls screw up the political prediction markets.

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