Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: founder

Robin Hanson’s buddy in the Silicon Valley strikes it rich.

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PowerSet sold to the Evil Empire for $100 million.
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UPDATE: Interview.
UPDATE: ValleyWag.
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Barney Pell, then an “Enterpreneur In Residence” for a VC, co-founded PowerSet and became its first CEO —and then moved on to another position at PowerSet. (Barney Pell was probably a minority investor in PowerSet.)
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In a 2005 blog post, comes the explanation on how the [...]

Australian billionaire James Packer, who owns 50% of BetFair Australia (thru PBL), has quit the Church of Scientology.

The Sydney Morning Herald:
However, observers suggest Mr Packer’s expanding casino empire has presented issues difficult to reconcile with Scientologist beliefs. Scientology’s founder, the science fiction author L. Ron Hubbard, denounced gambling. “An obsessive gambler is a psychotic just like a drug addict or an alcoholic,” Hubbard wrote in 1977.
Wikipedia
Old BBC story
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Pikum — A new kind of betting game created and played between friends

Pikum — A new kind of betting game created and played between friends

Have you ever competed with friends on sporting knowledge? Ever made a bet with them on the result of a sporting event? Enjoy playing the office sweepstake or the occasional flutter?
If so, you’ll love Pikum. We’re a social network where you are able [...]

WordPress founder Matt Mullenweg is my hero and so he should be yours.

Interview – MP4 file
Pay attention about what he says on giving away things (free software) and how to monetize that. This 24-year-old CEO is a wise man.
Your browser does not support JavaScript. This media can be viewed at http://www.podtech.net/home/4899/automattics-mullenweg-on-funding-and-futures
Technical Note: You will hear Matt talking about “WordPress.com” and “WordPress.org”. For your information, Midas Oracle is [...]

How political prediction markets save lives

Over the years there has been a lot of talk in this community about how prediction markets could be “socially valuable”. The discussion has often focused on the value of the information and/or predictions that the markets could generate, especially in a political context. Election-based decision markets a la Hanson are thus being held as [...]

Great podcasts on information technology

Random Bits Podcasts – Among others:

Matt Mullenweg, WordPress Founder
Alex King, Designer, Developer, WordPress Guru
Craig Newmark, Craigslist Founder, Community Builder, Entrepreneur
plus many more…

Alex King’s advice to companies:
Don’t let the person who writes the press releases anywhere near the corporate blog.

Are serial entrepreneurs the best to start up brand-new prediction exchanges or prediction software companies?

Don’t we put too much into the “serial entrepreneur” myth?
#1. The founder of RedFin believes that serial entrepreneurs are likely to do worse, not better, than start-up newbies. Guy Kawasaki agrees.
#2. Google’s Melissa Mayer was on CNBC to talk about the You’Re The VC website.

Meet John Nafeh, the HedgeStreet brain.

HedgeStreet:
Dr. John Nafeh – Director
John Nafeh is the Founder of HedgeStreet. He combined his expertise in decision analysis and risk management, his experience guiding Internet-related start-ups, and his vision of an Internet-based mass market for risk-hedging financial instruments [*] to create HedgeStreet. As Managing Director of Pareto Partners, a venture capital fund, Dr. Nafeh has [...]

BetFair results for the year 2007

The Sporting Exchange (BetFair Group) – The BetFair 2007 Annual Review = 2007 Results (ending April 30, 2007) – (PDF file) -
2007 revenue: £185,933,000
2007 group revenue: £181,928,000
2007 gross profit: £143,207,000
2007 EBITDA: £31,968,000
2007 profit: £19,388,000

Edward Wray (Non-Executive Chairman):
I am delighted to be able to report on another year of strong performance for your company. Like-for-like [...]

The Gambit Special Interest Group

Via betting market expert Niall O’Connor, The Gambit Special Interest Group:
Gambit is destined to be intellectual playground for all those in the gaming, gambling and gamebling [???] industries. Initiated by Cass Business School’s Executive MBA alumni, Gareth Wong, founder of GamBond, our aim is to provide a space for networking, mental stimulation and exchange of [...]

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