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Tag Archives: forecasting tool of convenience
Why collecting and synthesizing the dispersed available information?
Sean Park (after a long, boring introduction to the subject): [...] The ‘failure’ of New Hampshire was the result of primarily two factors: It wasn’t a failure. No market is always right. More importantly markets reflect the information available to … Continue reading →
Posted in Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce
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Tagged accuracy, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecasting tool of convenience, information collecting tools, New Hampshire, over-selling, prediction market industry, prediction markets, Sean Park, United States
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InTrade is no psychic —but what if that bit of truth is systematically said BEFORE, as opposed to AFTER.
David Leonhart in his New York Times blog, last week: The political prediction markets just went through their version of the dot-com bubble. [...] Intrade’s odds have had a very good forecasting record over the last few years, having correctly … Continue reading →
Posted in Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce
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Tagged accuracy, David Leonhart, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecasting tool of convenience, InTrade, John McCain, New Hampshire, New York Times, prediction markets, probabilities, Rudolph W. Giuliani, Senate, United States
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Can the prediction markets survive without the over-selling from John Delaney and his little fanboys?
Emile Servan-Schreiber: [...] The classic first line of defense in these cases is to remind people that market “predictions†are really just probabilities, so any one outcome cannot invalidate the approach. The argument is sound and backed up by loads … Continue reading →
Prediction markets are forecasting tools of convenience that feed on advanced indicators.
Why were the political prediction markets so wrong about Barak Obama and Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire? …asks Slate’s Daniel Gross —via Mister Usability (Alex Kirtland), who needs to go and get his own gravatar. So, I’ve been watching the … Continue reading →
Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Leading & Lagging Indicators, Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Journalism
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Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Alex Kirtland, Barack Obama, Barak Obama, BetFair, business professor, Chris Masse, Dan Gross, Daniel Gross, Donald Luskin, economist, Emile Servan-Scheiber, Emile Servan-Schreiber, event derivative markets, event derivatives, experts, failure, fiasco, forecasting tool of convenience, Forrest Nelson, France, Hillary Clinton, InTrade, Iowa, Justin Wolfers, Markos Moulitsas, Michael Giberson, New Hampshire, NewsFutures, Niall O'Connor, Pennsylvania, Politics, polls, prediction markets, pundits, Robin Hanson, success, The Netherlands, the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, ultimate forecasting tool, United States, US elections, US politics, US President, US presidential elections, western Europe
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