Tag Archives: forecasting tool of convenience
Why collecting and synthesizing the dispersed available information?
Sean Park (after a long, boring introduction to the subject):
[...] The ‘failure’ of New Hampshire was the result of primarily two factors:
It wasn’t a failure. No market is always right. More importantly markets reflect the information available to and the interests of their participants. Basically markets are very efficient mechanisms (I would claim the most [...]
InTrade is no psychic —but what if that bit of truth is systematically said BEFORE, as opposed to AFTER.
David Leonhart in his New York Times blog, last week:
The political prediction markets just went through their version of the dot-com bubble. [...]
Intrade’s odds have had a very good forecasting record over the last few years, having correctly called every Senate race in 2006, every state in the 2004 presidential election and all but one [...]
Can the prediction markets survive without the over-selling from John Delaney and his little fanboys?
Emile Servan-Schreiber:
[...] The classic first line of defense in these cases is to remind people that market “predictions” are really just probabilities, so any one outcome cannot invalidate the approach. The argument is sound and backed up by loads of data. But it would of course be much more convincing if we, as an industry, [...]
Prediction markets are forecasting tools of convenience that feed on advanced indicators.
Why were the political prediction markets so wrong about Barak Obama and Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire?
…asks Slate’s Daniel Gross —via Mister Usability (Alex Kirtland), who needs to go and get his own gravatar.
So, I’ve been watching the action in one of the political futures markets this evening, Intrade. And the action in this prediction [...]
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