Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: football

What’s wrong with soccer betting

I have been browsing thru the excellent Smarkets prediction markets on soccer (a.k.a. association football). You have 3 possibilities for betting:
- the home team wins;
- the home team loses;
- there is a draw.
The soccer rules (which allow for a draw) make me uncomfortable for betting on the outcome of a match. How can you assess [...]

Why BetFair does *not* want to share its profits with sports rights holders

Why should bookies be made to share their profit with sports rights holders? Many industries exist because of another without paying profit share, and we actually help sport to fight corruption.
By Mark Davies, managing director of BetFair
This week, the Sports Rights Owners Coalition lobbied the sports minister, Gerry Sutcliffe, for a fee from betting companies. [...]

FanDuel (by HubDub) is launched exclusively thru TechCrunch UK, which is, of course, upbeat on its future. Here’s a more critical take.

HubDub is a huge success in term of Internet popularity (pageviews, time spent on the site, etc.). However, HubDub has no business model, other than trying to get bought up by some bigger fish. Which is why Nigel Eccles and his smart team have devised a social fantasy sport game, FanDuel. Its business model (allowed [...]

The Value of Tom Brady?

New England Patriots’ quarterback Tom Brady suffered a season-ending injury during yesterday’s game with the Kansas City Chiefs. After he left the game and before the extent of the injury was known, the TradeSport’s contract on whether the Pats would win the Super Bowl fell about 5 points (from 21 to 16). Then at about [...]

Excerpts of the BetFair’s answers to their traders’ questions

About the new bet-matching logic:
It’s not clear why you believe that the majority of those customers who use Betfair’s forum are unhappy about the introduction of the improved matching logic. The sport this will most significantly benefit is football [soccer], and there’s nothing we’ve heard from our football customers that would suggest they’re unhappy, nor [...]

In a blow to the French, BetFair choose Bastille Day to premiere the revised version of the bet-matching logic of their prediction markets. — IMPROVEMENT MEANS BETTER LIQUIDITY FOR THEIR EVENT DERIVATIVE TRADERS.

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BetFair:
Improvements to Betfair’s bet matching logic today, Monday 14th July:
What’s changing?
We’ve improved the code that matches bets. As well as matching backs against lays as we’ve always done, we’ll also try to match your bet against bets on other selections in the market. We‘ll give you an improvement over the price you‘ve requested where possible, [...]

BetFair’s brand-new bet matching logic

BetFair:
Betfair Customer Services 06 Jun 15:55
We held a forum Q&A session in March in which we announced that we were working on an improved version of bet matching. This would allow us to match bets across selections, and to match those bets at better prices than requested where possible, as [...]

France will win the Euro 2008 (a European soccer tournament), and BetFair’s URLs suck.

That one is OK: http://soccer.betfair.com/
Those suck because they are not jotted down anywhere, and they are impossible to memorize:
http://www.betfair.com/?oid=4574657
http://www.betfair.com/?oid=4574657&pid=1
http://www.betfair.com/?oid=4574657&pid=2
Bad Internet usability —once again.
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TradeSports bet on Germany.
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NewsFutures
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HubDub
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One thing, among plenty of others, that shows me that the big prediction exchanges (InTrade, TradeSports, BetFair, TradeFair) don’t take prediction market journalism seriously

The latest issue of InTrade’s newsletter publishes static charts —not dynamic charts.
If the biggest US-oriented prediction exchange doesn’t get that simple thing, then why would the journalists and bloggers get it?
John Delaney is skilled at sending e-mail insults, but as a web publisher, he is a zero.
The executives at the helm of the big prediction [...]

BetFair’s new bet-matching logic + BetFair Malta’s trading on the multiples

BetFair:

Bet Matching Forum Q&A Session 19/03/08
Betfair Customer Services 17 Mar 11:50
As announced last week we’ll be hosting a Q&A session on the forum this Wednesday evening (19th March) between 6pm and 7pm (UK Time). The purpose of this Q&A session is to answer questions regarding BetFair’s new bet matching logic. To [...]

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