Tag Archives: Florida

Will Florida vote for Barack Obama or John McCain?

Here’s a quick roundup of the state polls and of the prediction markets… for the state of Florida. Data were taken around 1:00 pm —this Friday, October 31, 2008. – #1. PREDICTION MARKETS – InTrade: Florida will vote Barack Obama. … Continue reading

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2008 US electoral college: What I am betting on.

PollTrack: – I like the way they color this electoral college map —with 5 colors only (simplicity is good). It is very clear and usable, I believe. You can see 6 states in gray (“too close to call”). I am … Continue reading

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Spikes

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Are we witnessing manipulation attempts on the Florida prediction market at InTrade?

Florida went blue around 8:51 PM, on September 26, 2008… for a brief period of time: – The Democratic side: – Tip via Lance Fortnow – Previously:Is InTrade being manipulated? – UPDATE: See Jason Ruspini’s expert analysis in the comment … Continue reading

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All the prediction market webpages of all the (real-money or play-money) prediction exchanges should be indexed forever by the search engines (e.g., Google) —just like HudDub’s ones are.

NewsFutures’ prediction market webpages aren’t. The “Michigan Florida NewsFutures” query should have landed me on their prediction market webpage about whether “some delegates from FL or MI will be seated at the Democratic Convention.“ – Alas, NewsFutures does not maintain … Continue reading

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What InTrade CEO John Delaney told the CFTC about “event markets” (prediction markets)

John Delaney (CEO of InTrade) – (InTrade PDF file – CFTC PDF file): July 4th 2008 The Commodity Futures Trading Commission Three Lafayette Centre 1155 21st Street NW Washington, DC 20581 U.S.A. Attention: Office of the Secretariat RE: “Concept Release … Continue reading

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The best researchers on prediction markets

CFM: Scholars Check that CFM page for updates. And contact me so I can make additions to the list. (I’ll then re-publish that updated list on Midas Oracle.) – Michael Abramowicz – Michael B. Abramowicz – (Law School, George Washington … Continue reading

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WEB EXCLUSIVE: What Vernon Smith told the CFTC about the social utility of the event derivative markets —the so-called “prediction markets”

Professor Vernon Smith (2002 Nobel Laureate, Economics) —PDF file: 1. On oversight: I suggest that initially this function be entirely limited to a monitoring and data archive function. Such information should be available for experimental, econometric, finance and other research … Continue reading

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75,000 people turned out to hear Barack Obama at Waterfront Park, Portland, Oregon, U.S.A.

- Oregon’s Democratic Primary – InTrade – BetFair – Kentucky’s Democratic Primary – InTrade – BetFair – NewsFutures Some delegates from FL or MI will be seated at the Democratic Convention. © NewsFutures – First look at individual states for … Continue reading

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Only bloggers do link to the prediction markets —mainstream media, like ABC News, never do.

Can NewsFutures Really Predict the Future? … asks ABC News (4 pages): [...] NewsFutures creator Emile Servan-Schreiber believes that prediction markets like his are the “future of journalism.” [*] “It gives people the news of today and lets them give … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Journalism | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments