Tag Archives: Florida

Will Florida vote for Barack Obama or John McCain?

Written by Chris F. Masse on October 31, 2008 — Leave a Comment

Here’s a quick roundup of the state polls and of the prediction markets… for the state of Florida.
Data were taken around 1:00 pm —this Friday, October 31, 2008.
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#1. PREDICTION MARKETS
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InTrade: Florida will vote Barack Obama.

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HubDub: Florida will vote Barack Obama.
Who will win Florida in the 2008 Presidential Election?
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BetFair: Florida will vote for Barack Obama.

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#2. [...]

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Prices & Probabilities | Also tagged 2008 US presidential elections, Barack Obama, BetFair, HubDub, InTrade, John McCain, polls, prediction markets, US politics, US presidential elections

2008 US electoral college: What I am betting on.

Written by Chris F. Masse on October 29, 2008 — Leave a Comment

PollTrack:

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I like the way they color this electoral college map —with 5 colors only (simplicity is good). It is very clear and usable, I believe. You can see 6 states in gray (“too close to call”). I am heavily betting on Barack Obama for Florida and North Carolina. There will be a good payoff, next [...]

Posted in Analysis (Market Calls), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Leading & Lagging Indicators, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Also tagged 2008 US presidential elections, betting markets, electoral college, event derivative markets, HubDub, InTrade, North Carolina, polls, PollTrack, prediction markets, US politics

Spikes

Written by Chris F. Masse on September 29, 2008 — Leave a Comment

Posted in Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Also tagged 2008 US presidential elections, InTrade, manipulations, manipulations attempts, prediction markets, US presidential elections, Virginia

Are we witnessing manipulation attempts on the Florida prediction market at InTrade?

Written by Chris F. Masse on September 27, 2008 — 7 Comments

Florida went blue around 8:51 PM, on September 26, 2008… for a brief period of time:

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The Democratic side:

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Tip via Lance Fortnow
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Previously:Is InTrade being manipulated?
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UPDATE: See Jason Ruspini’s expert analysis in the comment area.
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Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Market Trading | Also tagged 2008 US presidential elections, InTrade, manipulations, manipulations attempts, prediction markets, US presidential elections

All the prediction market webpages of all the (real-money or play-money) prediction exchanges should be indexed forever by the search engines (e.g., Google) —just like HudDub’s ones are.

Written by Chris F. Masse on August 25, 2008 — Leave a Comment

NewsFutures’ prediction market webpages aren’t. The “Michigan Florida NewsFutures” query should have landed me on their prediction market webpage about whether “some delegates from FL or MI will be seated at the Democratic Convention.“

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Alas, NewsFutures does not maintain webpages about expired contracts:

Actually, the “market specified” did exist —but Emile and his team decided that old [...]

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce, Internet Usability | Also tagged Democratic convention, Democratic delegates, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Google Search, Google Web Search, HubDub, Intenet usability, Michigan, NewsFutures, Politics, prediction markets, Search Engine Optimization, Search Engines, SEO, US politics

What InTrade CEO John Delaney told the CFTC about “event markets” (prediction markets)

Written by Chris F. Masse on July 16, 2008 — 3 Comments

John Delaney (CEO of InTrade) – (InTrade PDF file – CFTC PDF file):
July 4th 2008
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Three Lafayette Centre
1155 21st Street NW
Washington, DC 20581
U.S.A.
Attention: Office of the Secretariat
RE: “Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts”
To Whom it May Concern:
It is an honour for me as Chief Executive Officer of Intrade [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Regulations | Also tagged 202.418.5521, 4th of July, ABC, Acting Chairman, American Enterprise Institute, Andy Serwer, Arthur Levitt Jr., Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Bloomberg, Brookings Joint Centre, Bush, Cato Institute, CEO, CFTC, Charles Noussair, Chicago, Chicago Tribune, Chief Executive Officer, CNN, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Congress, David Leonhardt, David Paton, David Pennock, de facto leader, Economics Reporter, economist, energy, Eric Zitzewitz, Erik Snowberg, European Central Bank, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, event derivatives, evet derivatives, federal government, Federal Reserve System, Fortune, Frankfurt, general public use, George Mason University, governor, HDDVD, Important Mission, InTrade, InTrade CEO, Ireland, Ivy League College, Jason Ruspini, John Delaney, Justin Wolfers, KING, Koleman Strumpf, Lafayette Centre, laws, Leighton Vaughan-Williams, London, managing editor, Marco Ottaviani, Mark J. Perry, Mark Perry, media businesses, Michigan, naturaldisaster, New York, North Korea, Paul Tetlock, prediction exchanges, Prediction Market Limited, prediction markets, President, price discovery information, Professor, professor of economics, Ray Disc, real-money prediction markets, Regulations, Reuters, Richmond, Robert Mugabe, Robin Hanson, Saddam Hussein, Secretary, Securities and Exchange Commission, Stephen Dubner, the Financial Times, The Los Angles Times, the New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, the Washington Post, TIME MAGAZINE, Toshiba, traded bets, U.S. Department of Energy, United States, United States Navy, University of Michigan-Flint, University of Westminster Business School, US government, USD, Wall Street Journal, Walt Lukken, What InTrade, White House, Yoshiaki Arata

The best researchers on prediction markets

Written by Chris F. Masse on June 4, 2008 — Leave a Comment

CFM: Scholars
Check that CFM page for updates. And contact me so I can make additions to the list. (I’ll then re-publish that updated list on Midas Oracle.)
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Michael Abramowicz – Michael B. Abramowicz – (Law School, George Washington University, Washington, D.C., U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
Bernd H. Ankenbrand – Bernd Ankenbrand – (Lecturer, Witten/Herdecke [...]

Posted in People, Resources - References | Also tagged Adam, Adam Meirowitz, Administration, American Enterprise Institute, Anderson School, Andrew Leigh, Anita Elberse, Anthony M. Kwasnica, Arizona, Australia, Australian National University, Austria, Becker Center, Bernardo A. Huberman, Bernd H. Ankenbrand, Bernd Skiera, Bilkent University, British Columbia, Business, C. Schelling, - Thomas Schelling, California, California Institute of Technology, Canada, Centre Nationale, Change, Chapman University, Charles A. Holt, Charles F. Manski, Charles Holt, Charles R. Plott, Chicago, Chief Economist, Chris Hibbert, Collective Intelligence, College of Arts and Sciences, College of Business, College of Business Administration, College of Management, Connecticut, corporate prediction markets, D. Hamilton, - James Hamilton, D.C., Daniel Reeves, Dartmouth College, David M. Pennock, David Paton, David Porter, dean, Denmark, Department of Computer Science, Department of Economics, Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Department of Insurance and Real Estate, Department of Politics, Director, Division of Humanity and Social Sciences, e-commerce, E. Litan, - Robert Litan, Economic Science Institute, Economics Department, Emile Servan-Schreiber, enterprise prediction markets, Eric Crampton, Eric W. Zitzewitz, Eric Zitzewitz, Erik Snowberg, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Executive Director, F. Manski, - Charles Manski, Forrest Nelson, France, Friedrich August Von Hayek, Frontier Research Center for Global Change, Gary William Flake, George Mason University, George R. Neumann, George Washington University, Gerhard Ortner, Germany, Goethe University, Google, Graduate School, H. Ankenbrand, - Bernd Ankenbrand, Hal R. Varian, Harvard Business School, Harvard University, Henry B. Tippie College of Business, HP Labs, IIT Center for Financial Markets, Illinois, Illinois Institute of Technology, information aggregation tool, Information Dynamics Lab, Information Services & Process Innovation Lab, internal prediction markets, Iowa, J. Arrow, - Kenneth Arrow, James Annan, James D. Hamilton, James Surowiecki, Japan, John O. Ledyard, Joyce Berg, Joyce E. Berg, Justin J. Wolfers, Justin Wolfers, Kansas, Kansas City, Kauffman Foundation, Kay-Yut Chen, Keith Gamble, Keith Jacks Gamble, Kellogg, Kenneth J. Arrow, Kentucky, L. Savage, - Sam Savage, Lance Fortnow, Lance J. Fortnow, law school, Lecturer, LEEPS, LEEPS laboratory, Leighton Vaughan-Williams, Leslie R. Fine, London Business School, Los Angeles, M. Kwasnica, - Anthony Kwasnica, M. Todd Henderson, manager, Marco Ottaviani, Martin Spann, Maryland, Massachusetts, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, McCormick School of Engineering, Michael Abramowicz, Michael B. Abramowicz, Michael Gorham, Michael P. Wellman, Michael Wellman, Michigan, Micro-Economic and Social Systems, Microsoft, Missouri, MIT, MIT Center, New Jersey, New York, New York City, New Zealand, Nicolas Lambert, North Carolina, Northwestern University, Norwestern University, Nottingham Trent University, Nottingham University, Paris, Paul C. Tetlock, Paul Milgrom, Paul W. Rhode, Penn State University, Pennsylvania, Peter Norman Sorensen, Philip E. Tetlock, Philip Tetlock, prediction markets, Princeton University, Principal Research Scientist, private prediction markets, Professor, professors, R. Varian, - Hal Varian, Rahul Sami, Recherche Scientifique, Reg-Markets Center, Research School of Social Sciences, researchers, Richard Borghesi, Richard Roll, Robert E. Litan, Robert Forsythe, Robert J. Shiller, Robert W. Hahn, Robin D. Hanson, Robin Hanson, Russ Ray, Ryan Oprea, Sam L. Savage, San Diego, San Marcos, Santa Cruz, Sauder School of Business, Saul Levmore, scholars, School of Business, School of Information, School of Management, School of Public Affair, Sciences, Social Computing Lab, software architect, Stanford University, Steve Levitt, Steven D. Levitt, Steven Levitt, Stuart School of Business, technology, Texas, Texas State University, Thomas A. Rietz, Thomas C. Schelling, Thomas Gruca, Thomas S Gruca, Thomas W. Malone, Thomas W. Ross, Todd A. Proebsting, Todd Proebsting, Tom Malone, Tom W. Bell, Tracy Mullen, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States, University of Applied Sciences, University of Arizona, University of British Columbia, University of California at Los Angeles, University of Canterbury, University of Chicago, University of Copenhagen, University of Iowa, University of Kansas, University of Louisville, University of Maryland, University of Michigan, University of North Carolina, University of Passau, University of Pennsylvania, University of South Florida, University of Texas at Austin, University of Virginia, Vancouver, Vernon L. Smith, Vice President for Research and Policy, Virginia, W. Flake - Gary Flake, W. Rhode, - Paul Rhode, W. Ross, - Thomas Ross, Washington, Werner Antweiler, Wharton Business School, Witten, Witten/Herdecke University, Yahoo! Research Labs, Yale University, Zocalo Project Manager

WEB EXCLUSIVE: What Vernon Smith told the CFTC about the social utility of the event derivative markets —the so-called “prediction markets”

Written by Chris F. Masse on May 26, 2008 — 10 Comments

Professor Vernon Smith (2002 Nobel Laureate, Economics) —PDF file:
1. On oversight: I suggest that initially this function be entirely limited to a monitoring and data archive function. Such information should be available for experimental, econometric, finance and other research scholars to study. If new regulatory rules governing rights to take action (“property rights”) are needed [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Economics, Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Regulations | Also tagged American Enterprise Institute, bet exchanges, betting exchanges, betting markets, CFTC, Economics, event derivative markets, event derivatives, event futures markets, Finance, Iowa, Iraq, Jason Ruspini, laws, Paul Wolfowitz, Porter, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, private institutional design, Professor, Regulations, Tom W. Bell, United States Of America, Vernon Smith, young economist

75,000 people turned out to hear Barack Obama at Waterfront Park, Portland, Oregon, U.S.A.

Written by Chris F. Masse on May 19, 2008 — 2 Comments

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Oregon’s Democratic Primary
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InTrade

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BetFair

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Kentucky’s Democratic Primary
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InTrade

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BetFair

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NewsFutures
Some delegates from FL or MI will be seated at the Democratic Convention.

© NewsFutures
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First look at individual states for the 2008 US presidential elections
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2008 US Presidential Election Winner – Individual

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2008 US Presidential Elections

Source: Dynamic, compound prediction market charts from InTrade
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Next US President

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Winning Party

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Female President?

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Democratic Candidate

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Republican Candidate

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Source: [...]

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Also tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Barack Obama, BetFair, Democratic candidate, Democratic party, democrats, Hillary Clinton, InTrade, Kentucky, meta forecasting tools, Montana, NewsFutures, Oregon, Politics, Portland, prediction market journalism, prediction markets, President, Republican candidate, United States, US elections, US politics, US President, US presidential elections, USD, Waterfront Park, web links, Will Be Democratic, Winning Party

Only bloggers do link to the prediction markets —mainstream media, like ABC News, never do.

Written by Chris F. Masse on April 2, 2008 — 4 Comments

Can NewsFutures Really Predict the Future?
… asks ABC News (4 pages):

[...] NewsFutures creator Emile Servan-Schreiber believes that prediction markets like his are the “future of journalism.” [*] “It gives people the news of today and lets them give you the news of tomorrow in a probabilistic fashion by asking them to take bets on what [...]

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Journalism | Also tagged ABC, average player, basketball, Bet 2 Give, Bet2Give, Emile Servan-Schreiber, event derivative markets, event derivatives, golf, Hockey, Journalism, mainstream media, Microsoft, Mike Linksvayer, NewsFutures, Player, prediction market journalism, prediction markets, soccer, sports, prediction markets, tennis, Yahoo!

Tag Archives: Florida

Will Florida vote for Barack Obama or John McCain?

2008 US electoral college: What I am betting on.

Spikes

Are we witnessing manipulation attempts on the Florida prediction market at InTrade?

All the prediction market webpages of all the (real-money or play-money) prediction exchanges should be indexed forever by the search engines (e.g., Google) —just like HudDub’s ones are.

What InTrade CEO John Delaney told the CFTC about “event markets” (prediction markets)

WEB EXCLUSIVE: What Vernon Smith told the CFTC about the social utility of the event derivative markets —the so-called “prediction markets”

75,000 people turned out to hear Barack Obama at Waterfront Park, Portland, Oregon, U.S.A.

Only bloggers do link to the prediction markets —mainstream media, like ABC News, never do.

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