Tag Archives: Federal Bureau of Investigation

FaceBook acts as a de facto information gathering source for US intelligence agencies such as NSA, CIA and FBI. — [VIDEO]

More.

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Could the FBI seize InTrade’s domain name and kill the real-money prediction markets? — [SOLUTION]

- Pokerstars, Full Tilt & Absolute Poker shut down by FBI. SOLUTION: – Firefox Add-on ‘Undoes’ U.S. Government Domain Seizures. – MAFIAA Fire extension for FireFox. – Seized gambling sites should be added in their list.

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J. Edgar Hoover asked the FBI to track Josephine Baker’s movements around the world because of a row she had in a NYC restaurant with a columnist who was Hoover’s best friend. – [VIDEO]

What a pig.

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Did Bin Laden speculate on the US airline stock derivatives (shorting them) between September 6, 2001 (date when he learned the timing of the attacks), and September 11, 2001 (date of the 4 attacks)?

- Via Mat Fogarty of Xpree Unusual Option Market Activity and the Terrorist Attacks of September 11, 2001 – by Allen M. Poteshman – 2006 Options traders, corporate managers, security analysts, exchange officials, regulators, prosecutors, policy makers, and—at times—the public … Continue reading

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchanges & Markets, Finance | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments

The war against online gambling

On 14 November 2007, in a statement made before the House of Representatives Committee on the Judiciary concerning internet gambling, Catherine Hanaway, the Unites States Attorney for the Eastern District of Missouri stated: It is the Department’s view, and that … Continue reading

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August 6, 2001: Bin Laden Determined to Strike in US.

Note: This blog post is filed in the “forecasting” and “accuracy” categories. — New York Times – Anonymous Editorial: [...] The Bush team was so busy in 2001 trying to upend America’s global relationships according to a neo-conservative agenda that … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Forecasting (Science & Practice), History, Politics | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Robin Hanson should have written to the New York Times’ public editor.

2000–2003 US DoD’s DARPA‘s IAO’s FutureMAP–Policy Analysis Market project Here’s the New York Times news article on PAM , titled Pentagon Prepares A Futures Market On Terror Attacks. [Wrong. It was a prediction exchange on Mid-East issues. Market-generated predictions are … Continue reading

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Libertarian reflections on the Sopranos and prediction markets

The final episode really brought home to me how the coercive power of the government is not that far off from the power of the Mafia. Before I get into that, I found it interesting that the HBO franchise saw … Continue reading

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I. Lewis “Scooter” Libby is expected to learn his sentence in the CIA leak case.

Wall Street Journal: The former White House aide was convicted of obstruction of justice, perjury and lying to the FBI earlier this year. No prediction markets on his sentence. I. Lewis “Scooter” Libby Pardon: — UPDATE: 30 months in prison

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , , | 1 Comment

AMERICAN PREDICTION MARKET BLOGGER WHO WENT INTO HIDING AFTER THE PASSING OF THE INTERNET GAMBLING PROHIBITION AND ENFORCEMENT ACT HAS RESUSCITATED HIS BLOG.

SmartCrowd will publish a “prediction market index”. Without InTrade, which is illegal in the US. “Paul” (the blogger) is terrorized by the perspective of being arrested by the FBI for publishing a hot link to an offshore (Irish) prediction exchange. … Continue reading

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