Tag Archives: Emile Servan-Scheiber
Prediction markets are forecasting tools of convenience that feed on advanced indicators.
Why were the political prediction markets so wrong about Barak Obama and Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire?
…asks Slate’s Daniel Gross —via Mister Usability (Alex Kirtland), who needs to go and get his own gravatar.
So, I’ve been watching the action in one of the political futures markets this evening, Intrade. And the action in this prediction [...]
Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Leading & Lagging Indicators, Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Journalism
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Also tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Alex Kirtland, Barack Obama, Barak Obama, BetFair, business professor, Chris Masse, Dan Gross, Daniel Gross, Donald Luskin, economist, Emile Servan-Schreiber, event derivative markets, event derivatives, experts, failure, fiasco, forecasting tool of convenience, Forrest Nelson, France, Hillary Clinton, InTrade, Iowa, Justin Wolfers, Markos Moulitsas, Michael Giberson, New Hampshire, NewsFutures, Niall O'Connor, Pennsylvania, Politics, polls, prediction markets, pundits, Robin Hanson, success, The Netherlands, the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, ultimate forecasting tool, United States, US elections, US politics, US President, US presidential elections, western Europe
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