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Tag Archives: elections
BetFair (a prediction exchange) + ComRes (a pollster)
They are jointly operating a new website, focused on the next UK general election: http://www.electionpredict.com/ As of today, the British GOP is set to win. We’ll see.
Republican Scott Brown has become the Senator-elect from Massachusetts.
Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics
Tagged election, elections, InTrade, Martha Coakley, Massachusetts, Nate Silver, Politics, prediction market, prediction markets, Scott Brown, Ted Kennedy, United States Senate, US politics, US Senate
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Massachusetts special election: Nate Silver knowns nothing. —REDUX
Nate Silver: There are many assumptions in this model which may not be valid []. Although I believe that these are generally a fairly well-balanced set of assumptions relative to the universe of possible assumptions (i.e. alternate sets of assumptions … Continue reading
Massachusetts special election: Nate Silver knowns nothing.
6 scenarios United States Senate special election in Massachusetts, 2010
How much betting will we see?
There is almost always a huge run-up in betting activity on prediction markets right before and during an event (this is equally true for sports as well as elections). In my posting about this over at Betfair’s new blog, I … Continue reading
Londoners (among them many faithful Midas Oracle readers) go voting today. Spot, in the first chart, that British political betting expert Mike Smithson serves some (IMPLIED) PROBABILITIES EXPRESSED IN PERCENTAGES to his readers —and not those fu***ng fractional odds, or those equally fu***ng digital / decimal odds.
- Boris Johnson, next mayor of London: – RELATED: BetFair’s “percentage vote share” prediction markets are illiquid, alas. – BetFair blog’s London page — Tabloid style. I don’t like it much. I think politics should be treated more seriously. Mike … Continue reading
Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics
Tagged Bath, BetFair, Boris Johnson, Bristol, decimal odds, digital odds, elections, event derivative markets, event derivatives, fractional odds, Google, Ken Livingstone, London, mayor, Mike Robb, Mike Smithson, New York Times, percentages, prediction markets, probabilities
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