Will Twitter Rule the World?
Rising along side of the social networking revolution, Twitter, the short message and microblogging service, has become nearly as popular as social network sites like Facebook. With China blocking Twitter on the anniversary of Tienanmen Square, and Time magazine publishing a “-how-to,”- it’-s fair to say that Twitter is now a global mainstream phenomenon.
Join us at the eLab eXchange and judge which ideas have the greatest potential for using Twitter as global a marketing tool.
The eLab eXchange is up and running again with new markets and more to come on a regular basis!
Spring is the traditional home buying season and many real estate professionals are predicting a significant “-spring bounce.”- Will it happen? Try your hand at predicting the rise (or fall) in web traffic to 5 popular real estate search sites.
If you haven’t visited us lately, come back and see what we’ve got for you to judge: http://elabexchange.com.
Judge right and you can win $25 and have a chance to win the quarterly mega-prize.
Hope to see you soon,
Lawrence D. Wright, Ph.D.
Research Associate, UCR eLab eXchange
The eLab eXchange has just opened “-The Web of Misery,”- a competitive forecasting tournament hosted by Newsfutures, with 10 markets that reflect new online indicators of economic distress. Come and give it your best shot – forecast just how bad you think the economy is going to get in the next few months! One of the markets is reproduced above.
During periods of economic hardship, conventional wisdom suggests that some people tend to increase their level of certain behaviors, for example, they may “-cling to guns or religion,”- or perhaps turn to alcohol or gambling in an attempt to relieve any pressures they may be feeling about a “-rough patch.”- Additionally, the skyrocketing costs of food, health care and gas, not to mention the real estate downturn, suggest that, in general, many consumers will become more careful about how they spend their hard-earned dollars.
The Web of Misery captures 10 of these behaviors and let’-s consumers forecast their impact. You can try your hand at judging the impact of the economic slowdown at eLab eXchange today!
Previous blog posts by Donna Hoffman:
- The eLab eXchange Has Some Fun With Online Shopping This Holiday Season.
- The Consumer Behavior of Prediction Markets
Is anyone aware of any research (scholarly or industry-based) examining bias in prediction markets, including how consumers form judgments in prediction markets and the extent of bias in those judgments.
In fact, I’d be interested in any research that looks at prediction markets from the consumer’s perspective. For example, are there any papers that rigorously examine the psychology of why prediction markets have the potential to be more accurate than other forms of forecasting? I’-m aware of papers that look at the design, incentives, management, manipulation and regulatory issues, and I’-ve seen some discussion of the cognitive biases (drawing on behavioral decision theory) that can arise (e.g. assimilation-contrast bias), but I haven’-t seen anything that looks at things from the consumer behavior theory perspective.
One interesting thing about the eLab eXchange (currently featuring “-non-trading prediction markets”-) is that we can use it to test some theories about how consumer judgments are influenced by other consumers (as opposed to the heuristics they might use to make judgments or the cognitive biases that influence their judgments) and about how these judgments can be influenced by various market feedback mechanisms we can set up.
Before we start designing some experiments, I want to make sure we’re not reinventing the wheel.
I’d be grateful for any pointers to research in this area.
Feel free to email me at firstname.lastname@example.org