Tag Archives: definitions

Predicting = Forecasting –> Collective Forecasting = Collective Intelligence That Predicts

Posted on May 26, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

What is the etymology of the word forecasting? forecast (v.) c.1388, “to scheme,” from fore “before” + casten “contrive.” Meaning “predict events” first attested 1494. Previously: Apple dictionary on “predicting” vs “forecasting” Previously: Andrew Gelman on “predicting” vs “forecasting” – … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Explainers, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged Collective Forecasting, collective intelligence that predicts, definitions, Explainers, forecast, Forecasting (Science & Practice), forecasts, predict, predicting, Predictions, Robin Hanson | Leave a comment

Predicting vs. Forecasting

Posted on May 26, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Mark Phillips: QUESTION (from LinkedIn): Forecasting the same as prediction? Which one is more realistic and easier to do? ANSWER: Forecasting is different from predicting. Predicting is much easier but far less accurate. Predicting is when you start making guesses … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Explainers, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged definitions, Explainers, Forecasting (Science & Practice), forecasts, predicting, Predictions | Leave a comment

Prof Andrew Gelman on “predicting” and “forecasting”

Posted on May 26, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Andrew Gelman: I suspect the words have different meanings in different contexts.Â In statistics, “prediction” is often used even when the result has already happened:Â that is, if you have a model, y = f(x) + error, then f(x) is … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Explainers, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged Andrew Gelman, definitions, Explainers, Forecasting (Science & Practice), forecasts, predicting, Predictions | Leave a comment

What Robin Hanson didn’t tell you about “forecasting”

Posted on May 25, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Here is what the Apple Macintosh dictionary says about “predict” (which I went to from “forecast”): THE RIGHT WORD While all of these words refer to telling something before it happens, predict is the most commonly used and applies to … Continue reading →

They had difficulty defining BetFair.

Posted on April 30, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

In 2008, just before the SuperBowl: Betting markets like Betfairâ€™s are a form of prediction market

Posted in Exchanges & Markets | Tagged BetFair, betting exchanges, betting markets, definitions, prediction exchanges, prediction markets | Leave a comment

What is a prediction market? — Definitions & Explainers

Posted on February 2, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Listing of explainers on prediction markets: Yahoo! Answers “prediction markets” â€” “prediction market” Google Answers â€” This service has been decommissioned. “prediction markets” â€” “prediction market” WikiBooks â€” WikiBooks – (English) â€” Search for “prediction markets” WikiNews â€” WikiNews – … Continue reading →

Posted in Resources - References | Tagged betting markets, definitions, event derivative markets, Explainers, prediction markets | Leave a comment

Wanna be famous?

Posted on November 2, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

I have made a simplistic WordPress plugin, which displays quotes about the prediction markets, in the top right corner of the administration panel. You can spot them when you come inside Midas Oracle to write a blog post, or update … Continue reading →

Posted in Midas Oracle Administration, Miscellaneous | Tagged definitions, Pediction Markets Rock, plugins, prediction markets, quotes, WodPress plugins, WordPress | Leave a comment

Prediction Market Definition —updated

Posted on October 4, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Definition – A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Explainers, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged accuracy, betting markets, definitions, event derivative, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Explainers, Forecasting (Science & Practice), forecasting mechanisms, future events, Information Aggregation, information value, objective probabilistic predictions, prediction accuracy, prediction market, prediction market definition, prediction market explainer, prediction markets, Predictions, probabilistic predictions, Robin Hanson, the future | 1 Comment

Jason Ruspini will answer SOME of these CFTC questions. — 12 days left, Jason.

Posted on June 25, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

CFTC – (PDF file): CFTC’s Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts – V. Issues for Comment A. Request for Comment The following questions consider the Commission’s regulatory purview over event contracts, the interests that may appropriately … Continue reading →

Posted in Regulations | Tagged American Enterprise Institute, bet markets, betting markets, binary options, CFTC, commodity futures, commodity futures contracts, commodity options, commodity options contracts, definitions, event contracts, event derivative markets, event derivatives, event futures, event markets, Explainers, futures contracts, futures markets, Jason Ruspini, Porter, prediction markets, real-money prediction markets, retail customers, retail market participants, retail users, Tom W. Bell, Trader, United States Of America, Vernon Smith | 5 Comments

The lawyerly questions that the CFTC are asking to Tom W. Bell

Posted on June 18, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Posted in Regulations | Tagged bet markets, betting markets, binary options, CFTC, commodity futures, commodity futures contracts, commodity options, commodity options contracts, definitions, event contracts, event derivative markets, event derivatives, event futures, event markets, Explainers, futures contracts, futures markets, prediction markets, real-money prediction markets, retail customers, retail market participants, retail users, Tom W. Bell, Trader | 8 Comments

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