Tag Archives: Congress
What I think of Robin Hanson’s comment to the CFTC… and what I think about his slam at TradeSports-InTrade, BetFair-TradeFair, and HedgeStreet.
Overall, his input is very brainy.
It’s a major contribution to the general discussion about prediction markets.
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Please, allow me to disagree on one thing he said.
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Robin Hanson:
One proposed distinguishing criteria includes the size of an individual trader’s stake, and the number of traders. The Iowa Electronic Markets are limited on both of these parameters. Such limits [...]
My response to the CFTC on event contracts
Here is my response to the CFTC’s “Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts.” I appreciate this opportunity to help in working towards regulated prediction markets in the US, and I thank the Commissioners for it.
Given the political implications of the rise in commodity prices, this is not the best environment in [...]
The CFTC safe-harbor option for event markets
The recommendation for safe-harbor of a group of influential economists to the CFTC aims squarely at the 4(c)3(K)* clause of the Commodity Exchange Act. The CFTC may approve a public interest exemption under 4(c) provided that the affected contracts are traded only between “appropriate persons”. 4(c)3(k) is the only qualification that would accommodate “retail” [...]
Is the promise of prediction markets in the United States best explored in limited, small stakes markets under a CFTC safe harbor declaration?
I haven’t turned up the latest edition of Science magazine mentioned yesterday by Chris F. Masse, but a version of the Science article “The Promise of Prediction Markets“, is available from the AEI Center for Regulatory and Market Studies (find link to article on this page).
The first thing of note is that the extensive list [...]
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