Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: Congress

What InTrade CEO John Delaney told the CFTC about “event markets” (prediction markets)

John Delaney (CEO of InTrade) – (InTrade PDF file – CFTC PDF file):
July 4th 2008
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Three Lafayette Centre
1155 21st Street NW
Washington, DC 20581
U.S.A.
Attention: Office of the Secretariat
RE: “Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts”
To Whom it May Concern:
It is an honour for me as Chief Executive Officer of Intrade [...]

What I think of Robin Hanson’s comment to the CFTC… and what I think about his slam at TradeSports-InTrade, BetFair-TradeFair, and HedgeStreet.

Overall, his input is very brainy.
It’s a major contribution to the general discussion about prediction markets.
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Please, allow me to disagree on one thing he said.
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Robin Hanson:
One proposed distinguishing criteria includes the size of an individual trader’s stake, and the number of traders. The Iowa Electronic Markets are limited on both of these parameters. Such limits [...]

My response to the CFTC on event contracts

Here is my response to the CFTC’s “Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts.” I appreciate this opportunity to help in working towards regulated prediction markets in the US, and I thank the Commissioners for it.
Given the political implications of the rise in commodity prices, this is not the best environment in [...]

Malta Lotteries And Gaming Authority: the non-regulating regulator

The Malta Lotteries And Gaming Authority is the governmental body whose job it is to oversee and regulate all gambling operations located in Malta. The 2004 Remote Gaming Regulations represents the governing legislation, and it includes the following encouraging clause:
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The Authority may order the suspension or cancellation of a license if…the license holder has failed [...]

“To someone like me who trades professionally and also ran for Congress a few years back, InTrade is a marriage made in heaven.”

Via Fabian John (Financial Services Consultant)
Speculative Trading with Binary Options – by Kurt Eckhardt
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How the CFTC is going to rule on the legality of “event markets”

Psstt… Wanna know in advance what the CFTC is going to decide about “event markets”?…
Simple… Read closely their “concept release”… You can spot the seeding of their future ruling…
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CFTC – (PDF file):
CFTC’s Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts
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By enacting the CFMA, Congress sought “to promote innovation for futures and derivatives and [...]

CFTC’s Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts

CFTC – (PDF file):
CFTC’s Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts
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SUMMARY:
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (Commission or CFTC) is soliciting comment on the appropriate regulatory treatment of financial agreements offered by markets commonly referred to as event, prediction, or information markets. \1\ For ease of reference and to avoid classification issues, these [...]

The American Enterprise Institute’s proposals to legalize real-money prediction markets in the United States of America

The Promise of Prediction Markets – by Kenneth J. Arrow, Robert Forsythe, Michael Gorham, Robert Hahn, Robin Hanson, John O. Ledyard, Saul Levmore, Robert Litan, Paul Milgrom, Forrest D. Nelson, George R. Neumann, Marco Ottaviani, Thomas C. Schelling, Robert J. Shiller, Vernon L. Smith, Erik Snowberg, Cass R. Sunstein, Paul C. Tetlock, Philip E. Tetlock, [...]

The CFTC safe-harbor option for event markets

The recommendation for safe-harbor of a group of influential economists to the CFTC aims squarely at the 4(c)3(K)* clause of the Commodity Exchange Act. The CFTC may approve a public interest exemption under 4(c) provided that the affected contracts are traded only between “appropriate persons”. 4(c)3(k) is the only qualification that would accommodate “retail” [...]

Is the promise of prediction markets in the United States best explored in limited, small stakes markets under a CFTC safe harbor declaration?

I haven’t turned up the latest edition of Science magazine mentioned yesterday by Chris F. Masse, but a version of the Science article “The Promise of Prediction Markets“, is available from the AEI Center for Regulatory and Market Studies (find link to article on this page).
The first thing of note is that the extensive list [...]

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