Tag Archives: California

Oops.

Written by Chris F. Masse on November 7, 2008 — 2 Comments

Look at the right end of the chart:
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Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities | Also tagged America, gay marriage, InTrade, prediction markets, United States Of America, US politics

Enterprise Prediction Markets = The wisdom of crowds comes to the enterprise.

Written by Chris F. Masse on October 29, 2008 — 2 Comments

Here are short excerpts of the Forrester report on enterprise prediction markets and companies that provide software for enterprise prediction markets.
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The Forrester executive summary:
The “wisdom of crowds” is capturing the attention of corporate strategists across the globe, and, as a result, many are now looking to prediction markets — speculative markets in which traders collectively [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Cases, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Consulting, Exchanges & Markets, Explainers | Also tagged A. Huberman, - Bernardo Huberman, Adam, Adam Siegel, Alberta, Bernardo A. Huberman, Bernd Ankenbrand, Boston Consulting Group, Calgary, Canada, Center for Energy Commerce, CEO, Charles R. Plott, Chicago, Chris Hibbert, Client Resource Center, Collective Intelligence, corporate prediction markets, David Perry, David Shahar, Director, EDS, Elad Amir, Emile Servan-Schreiber, ENERGY ECONOMIST, energy policy, enterprise prediction markets, Exago, Forrester, France, George Mason University, George Tziralis, Germany, Google, Greece, Hollywood Stock Exchange, HP Services & HP Labs, IBM, Illinois, Information Dynamics Lab, IntelliMarket Systems, internal prediction markets, Israel, Justin Wolfers, Kansas, Kay-Yut Chen, Ken Kittlitz, KPMG, L.A., Littal Shemer Haim, Maryland, Maurice Balick, Michael Giberson, Microsoft, Nashville, Nathan Kontny, Noam Danon, Oliver Bernhard Pedersen, Paris, Pedro Da Cunha, Pennsylvania, Peter Gollowitsch, Portugal, prediction market consultants, Prediction Market Software, prediction markets, private prediction markets, R. Plott, - Charles Plott, Rawls College of Business, Robin Hanson, Software architect / , Zocalo, project manager, software for prediction markets, Tennessee, Texas, Texas Tech University, United States, University of Kansas, University of Pennsylvania's Wharton Business School, Virginia, Virtual Specialist, VP Business development, VP R&D, wisdom of crowds, Yahoo!

Science comes to the rescue of the “leading academics” suffering lapses of memory —those who, on Monday, signed on to be on the board of the Prediction Market Industry Association, which is supposed to lobby for the legalization of InTrade’s real-money prediction markets in the United States of America —and, on the next Tuesday, signed Bob’s puritan and sterile petition.

Written by Chris F. Masse on July 17, 2008 — Leave a Comment

CX717 = “memory pills”
US scientists have invented a pill that can boost memory.
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Invented by Dr Gary Lynch from the University of California.
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John Delaney (CEO of InTrade) – (InTrade PDF file – CFTC PDF file):
Nearly all leading academics, not known for their attraction to unanimity, have publicly supported event markets. A great majority of these academics [...]

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Humor, Science | Also tagged CEO, CX717, Gary Lynch, George Mason University, Humor, InTrade, John Delaney, Justin Wolfers, memory lapses, memory loss, memory pills, Pennsylvania, Prediction Market Industry Association, prediction markets, Robin Hanson, United States Of America, University of California, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School

COMMENTS TO THE CFTC: What to expect from Tom W. Bell and Jason Ruspini

Written by Chris F. Masse on June 25, 2008 — 9 Comments

For those who are just surfacing from an Afghan cave: Tom W. Bell is a law professor at Chapman University (in California) and Jason Ruspini is a Wall Street professional (in New York).
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It seems that both will, independently of each other, write to the CFTC about the legalization of the “event markets” (here are the [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Regulations | Also tagged American Enterprise Institute, CFTC, Chapman University, event contracts, event derivative markets, event derivatives, event markets, for-profit prediction exchanges, Iraq, Jason Ruspini, law professor, laws, New York, not-for-profit prediction exchanges, Paul Wolfowitz, Porter, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, Regulations, Tom W. Bell, United States Of America, US Supreme Court, Vernon Smith, Wall Street, young economist

Let Prediction Markets Fight Terrorism.

Written by Tom W. Bell on June 23, 2008 — 22 Comments

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)’s recent request for comments about the regulation of prediction markets includes a number of specific questions. I am not sure whether I will manage to write up answers to all of them before the July 7 deadline, but question in particular—question 14—has attracted my attention. The CFTC [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Regulations | Also tagged anthropologist, Arizona, CFTC, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Jed Christiansen, laws, Pentagon, prediction markets, public relations problem, real-money prediction markets, Regulations, would-be terrorist

The best research papers on prediction markets

Written by Chris F. Masse on June 11, 2008 — Leave a Comment

As seen by Andreas Graefe…
IIF’s SIG on Prediction Markets
Research Papers
Basics
Several studies explain the concept of prediction markets and provide useful summaries of the method, e.g.
- Spann, M. & Skiera, B. (2003). Internet-based Virtual Stock Markets for Business Forecasting, Management Science, 49, 1310-1326. [Full text]
- Wolfers, J. & Zitzewitz, E. (2006). Prediction Markets in [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Market Efficiency), Analysis (Meta), Economics, Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Resources - References | Also tagged academic papers, academic research, American Magazine, Andreas Graefe, betting exchange, betting markets, California Institute of Technology, cellular telephone, Delphi, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Google, Hanson, Hewlett-Packard, Hollywood Stock Exchange, IEEE Intelligent Systems, International Journal of Forecasting, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Journal of Political Economy, National Football League, NEC Research Institute, No.1131, North Carolina, OSCAR, Pasadena, Pennock, Porter, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, Research, the field, University of North Carolina, Web Market Games

The best researchers on prediction markets

Written by Chris F. Masse on June 4, 2008 — Leave a Comment

CFM: Scholars
Check that CFM page for updates. And contact me so I can make additions to the list. (I’ll then re-publish that updated list on Midas Oracle.)
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Michael Abramowicz – Michael B. Abramowicz – (Law School, George Washington University, Washington, D.C., U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
Bernd H. Ankenbrand – Bernd Ankenbrand – (Lecturer, Witten/Herdecke [...]

Posted in People, Resources - References | Also tagged Adam, Adam Meirowitz, Administration, American Enterprise Institute, Anderson School, Andrew Leigh, Anita Elberse, Anthony M. Kwasnica, Arizona, Australia, Australian National University, Austria, Becker Center, Bernardo A. Huberman, Bernd H. Ankenbrand, Bernd Skiera, Bilkent University, British Columbia, Business, C. Schelling, - Thomas Schelling, California Institute of Technology, Canada, Centre Nationale, Change, Chapman University, Charles A. Holt, Charles F. Manski, Charles Holt, Charles R. Plott, Chicago, Chief Economist, Chris Hibbert, Collective Intelligence, College of Arts and Sciences, College of Business, College of Business Administration, College of Management, Connecticut, corporate prediction markets, D. Hamilton, - James Hamilton, D.C., Daniel Reeves, Dartmouth College, David M. Pennock, David Paton, David Porter, dean, Denmark, Department of Computer Science, Department of Economics, Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Department of Insurance and Real Estate, Department of Politics, Director, Division of Humanity and Social Sciences, e-commerce, E. Litan, - Robert Litan, Economic Science Institute, Economics Department, Emile Servan-Schreiber, enterprise prediction markets, Eric Crampton, Eric W. Zitzewitz, Eric Zitzewitz, Erik Snowberg, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Executive Director, F. Manski, - Charles Manski, Florida, Forrest Nelson, France, Friedrich August Von Hayek, Frontier Research Center for Global Change, Gary William Flake, George Mason University, George R. Neumann, George Washington University, Gerhard Ortner, Germany, Goethe University, Google, Graduate School, H. Ankenbrand, - Bernd Ankenbrand, Hal R. Varian, Harvard Business School, Harvard University, Henry B. Tippie College of Business, HP Labs, IIT Center for Financial Markets, Illinois, Illinois Institute of Technology, information aggregation tool, Information Dynamics Lab, Information Services & Process Innovation Lab, internal prediction markets, Iowa, J. Arrow, - Kenneth Arrow, James Annan, James D. Hamilton, James Surowiecki, Japan, John O. Ledyard, Joyce Berg, Joyce E. Berg, Justin J. Wolfers, Justin Wolfers, Kansas, Kansas City, Kauffman Foundation, Kay-Yut Chen, Keith Gamble, Keith Jacks Gamble, Kellogg, Kenneth J. Arrow, Kentucky, L. Savage, - Sam Savage, Lance Fortnow, Lance J. Fortnow, law school, Lecturer, LEEPS, LEEPS laboratory, Leighton Vaughan-Williams, Leslie R. Fine, London Business School, Los Angeles, M. Kwasnica, - Anthony Kwasnica, M. Todd Henderson, manager, Marco Ottaviani, Martin Spann, Maryland, Massachusetts, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, McCormick School of Engineering, Michael Abramowicz, Michael B. Abramowicz, Michael Gorham, Michael P. Wellman, Michael Wellman, Michigan, Micro-Economic and Social Systems, Microsoft, Missouri, MIT, MIT Center, New Jersey, New York, New York City, New Zealand, Nicolas Lambert, North Carolina, Northwestern University, Norwestern University, Nottingham Trent University, Nottingham University, Paris, Paul C. Tetlock, Paul Milgrom, Paul W. Rhode, Penn State University, Pennsylvania, Peter Norman Sorensen, Philip E. Tetlock, Philip Tetlock, prediction markets, Princeton University, Principal Research Scientist, private prediction markets, Professor, professors, R. Varian, - Hal Varian, Rahul Sami, Recherche Scientifique, Reg-Markets Center, Research School of Social Sciences, researchers, Richard Borghesi, Richard Roll, Robert E. Litan, Robert Forsythe, Robert J. Shiller, Robert W. Hahn, Robin D. Hanson, Robin Hanson, Russ Ray, Ryan Oprea, Sam L. Savage, San Diego, San Marcos, Santa Cruz, Sauder School of Business, Saul Levmore, scholars, School of Business, School of Information, School of Management, School of Public Affair, Sciences, Social Computing Lab, software architect, Stanford University, Steve Levitt, Steven D. Levitt, Steven Levitt, Stuart School of Business, technology, Texas, Texas State University, Thomas A. Rietz, Thomas C. Schelling, Thomas Gruca, Thomas S Gruca, Thomas W. Malone, Thomas W. Ross, Todd A. Proebsting, Todd Proebsting, Tom Malone, Tom W. Bell, Tracy Mullen, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States, University of Applied Sciences, University of Arizona, University of British Columbia, University of California at Los Angeles, University of Canterbury, University of Chicago, University of Copenhagen, University of Iowa, University of Kansas, University of Louisville, University of Maryland, University of Michigan, University of North Carolina, University of Passau, University of Pennsylvania, University of South Florida, University of Texas at Austin, University of Virginia, Vancouver, Vernon L. Smith, Vice President for Research and Policy, Virginia, W. Flake - Gary Flake, W. Rhode, - Paul Rhode, W. Ross, - Thomas Ross, Washington, Werner Antweiler, Wharton Business School, Witten, Witten/Herdecke University, Yahoo! Research Labs, Yale University, Zocalo Project Manager

Short list of the economics labs researching on prediction markets

Written by Chris F. Masse on May 30, 2008 — Leave a Comment

Labs
(with thanks to Chris Hibbert of Zocalo)
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Iowa Electronic Markets – (IEM) – (Henry B. Tippie College of Business, University of Iowa, Iowa, U.S.A.)
Interdisciplinary Center for Economic Science – (ICES) – (George Mason University, Virginia, U.S.A.)
Economic Science Institute – (ESI) – (Chapman University, California, U.S.A.)
HP Labs – (Hewlett-Packard, Palo Alto, California, U.S.A.)
Laboratory for Experimental Economics and [...]

Posted in Economics, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Resources - References | Also tagged Cambridge, Center for Prediction Markets, Chapman University, Chris Hibbert, Collective Intelligence, Cologne, Economic Science Institute, Economics, event derivative markets, event derivatives, George Mason University, Germany, Google, Henry B. Tippie College of Business, Hewlett-Packard, HP Labs, Interdisciplinary Center for Economic Science, Iowa, Knowledge Lab, laboratories, Laboratory for Economics Management and Auctions, Laboratory for Experimental Economics and Political Science, labs, Massachusetts, Microsoft, MIT Center, Mountain View, National Chengchi University, Palo Alto, Pasadena, Penn State University, Pennsylvania, prediction markets, Redmont, Research, Taiwan, United States, University of Iowa, University of Virginia, Vecon Lab, Virginia, Washington, Yahoo!, Yahoo! Research Labs

Where to find advice on how to set up your enterprise prediction markets

Written by Chris F. Masse on May 29, 2008 — Leave a Comment

Consultants
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Inkling – URL: Inkling Markets – (Chicago, Illinois, U.S.A.)

Adam Siegel — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
Nathan Kontny

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NewsFutures – (Maryland, U.S.A. & Paris, France, E.U.)

Emile Servan-Schreiber — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
Maurice Balick

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Xpree – (U.S.A.)

Mat Fogarty — Post Archives at Midas Oracle

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HP Services – HP Labs – (U.S.A.)

Predicting the future –with games — Introductory article
Information Dynamics [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Consulting | Also tagged A. Huberman, - Bernardo Huberman, Adam, Adam Siegel, Alberta, American Enterprise Institute, Bernardo A. Huberman, Bernd Ankenbrand, BPH Technologies, Calgary, Canada, CEO, Charles R. Plott, Chicago, Chris Hibbert, consultancy firms, consultants, Consulting, consulting firms, corporate prediction markets, D.C., David Perry, David Shahar, Director, Durham, economic tools, Elad Amir, Emile Servan-Schreiber, energy, ENERGY ECONOMIST, energy policy, enterprise prediction markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, France, George Mason, George Tziralis, Germany, Google, Greece, Hollywood Stock Exchange, HP Labs, Illinois, Information Dynamics Lab, IntelliMarket Systems, internal prediction markets, Israel, Jed Christiansen, Justin Wolfers, Kansas, Kay-Yut Chen, Ken Kittlitz, L.A., Littal Shemer Haim, London, Maryland, Maurice Balick, Michael Giberson, Mikael Edholm, Nashville, Nathan Kontny, Noam Danon, North Carolina, Oliver Bernhard Pedersen, Paris, Pennsylvania, Peter Gollowitsch, prediction market consultants, prediction markets, private prediction markets, R. Plott, - Charles Plott, Raleigh, Robert Hahn, Robert Wilburn, Robin Hanson, Software architect / , Zocalo, project manager, Tennessee, United Kingdom, United States, Virginia, VP Business development, VP R&D, Washington

John McCain’s grumpy old pal writes to Bo Cowgill’s boss.

Written by Chris F. Masse on May 20, 2008 — Leave a Comment

Joe Lieberman:
May 19, 2008
Dr. Eric Schmidt
Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer
Google, Inc.
1600 Amphitheatre Parkway
Mountain View, CA 94043
Dear Dr. Schmidt:
YouTube is being used to share videos produced by al-Qaeda and other Islamist terrorist groups. The purpose of this letter is to request that Google implement its own policy against this offensive material, remove these [...]

Posted in Ethics, Politics, The Internet | Also tagged Afghanistan, Al Qaeda, Ansar al-Islam, Board and Chief Executive Officer, chairman, Chairman of the Board, Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer, Department of State, Eric Schmidt, Foreign Terrorist, Google, Homegrown Terrorist, Internet campaign, Iraq, Iraq war, Islamist terrorist, islamists, Joe Lieberman, John McCain, Joseph I. Lieberman, law enforcement, media campaign, Mountain View, multi-tiered online media operation, online content, Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs, terrorists, United States, YouTube

Tag Archives: California

Oops.

Enterprise Prediction Markets = The wisdom of crowds comes to the enterprise.

COMMENTS TO THE CFTC: What to expect from Tom W. Bell and Jason Ruspini

Let Prediction Markets Fight Terrorism.

The best research papers on prediction markets

Short list of the economics labs researching on prediction markets

Where to find advice on how to set up your enterprise prediction markets

John McCain’s grumpy old pal writes to Bo Cowgill’s boss.

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