Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: businesses

CrowdCast CEO Mat Fogarty on how his company is helping businesses make better-informed decisions [VIDEO]

Good questions, good answers:
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External Links:
- CrowdCast
- CFO Prediction Market
- Matt Fogarty’s twitter – [Midas Oracle's twitter]
Previously:
- CrowdCast = Collective Forecasting = Collective Intelligence That Predicts
- CrowdCast = market mechanism = binary spreads with [...]

Do businesses need enterprise prediction markets?

Competitive advantage can be obtained either by differentiation or by low cost. Enterprise prediction markets certainly don’t foster the innovation process, and they are surely not the cheapest forecasting tool. EPMs require special software, the hiring of consultant(s), the participation of all, and a budget for the prizes. EPMs are costly, and they take time [...]

Enterprise prediction markets have *no* benefits for businesses.

Paul Hewitt:
My review of the literature and case studies (that have been published) indicates that prediction markets have improved the accuracy of forecasts, but the improvements have not been great enough to encourage widespread (or even minimal) acceptance. Furthermore, these studies like to average their results over a number of markets, disguising the fact that [...]

How vendors are scuttling the field of enterprise prediction markets —and the prediction market industry, as a whole

The danger of vendor conferences without any editorial line: It backfires against the whole prediction markets industry —big time.

I warned my readers many times against the vendor conferences organized by the San Francisco man. He is so desperate that he invites anybody who will pronounce the word “prediction” and “markets” in the same paragraph. Many [...]

The Economist: The enterprise prediction markets are flopping, big time.

An uncertain future – A novel way of generating forecasts has yet to take off. – by The Economist – 2009-02-26
- But although they have spread beyond early-adopting companies in the technology industry, they have still not become mainstream management tools. Even fervent advocates admit much remains to be done to convince sceptical managers of [...]

What is a prediction market? What is the utility of enterprise prediction markets?

Consensus Point:
First, every market price is a prediction. Think of a familiar securities market such as a stock market. The price of a company’s stock is a forecast of the value of future dividend payments. A bond price is a forecast of the value of a defined set of interest payments, based on factors such [...]

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