Tag Archives: Bob Barr
Analysis of Barr and Nader 2008 Intrade contracts
I’ve used the Bob Barr contracts at Intrade to poke fun at the totally unrealistic expectations of Libertarian Party advocates (a couple times at Midas Oracle), so here’s a brief (and completely amateur) analysis of those contracts (and Nader contracts), post-election.
You may need to click on each chart to see the whole thing.
The probability of [...]
Bob Barr markets
Reason, a libertarian periodical, writes that the Bob Barr effect is “confirmed.” Because Obama’s campaign manager says it is.
Yes, pathetically a pro-market publication heeds the remarks of a political operative rather than markets that say Bob Barr will not make an impact.
Admittedly we have very little signal from prediction markets and lots of noise from [...]
Bob Barr candidacy fails market test.
Yesterday at about 5:30PM EDT the Libertarian Party (U.S.) nominated ex-Congressperson Bob Barr for U.S. President. Barr’s nomination does not appear to have been certain — it took five rounds of voting, including two rounds where he tied for first and one in which in placed second.
So what do the relevant prediction markets make of [...]
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