Reason, a libertarian periodical, writes that the Bob Barr effect is “-confirmed.”- Because Obama’-s campaign manager says it is.
Yes, pathetically a pro-market publication heeds the remarks of a political operative rather than markets that say Bob Barr will not make an impact.
Admittedly we have very little signal from prediction markets and lots of noise from political operatives, so writing about the latter makes for easier journalism.
There are now Intrade contracts on Barr’-s share of the popular vote. Perhaps they’-ll provide a little more signal, but I don’-t have high hopes for reasonable trading volume —- or for libertarian politicos embracing markets when the message of market prices might not correspond to their hallucinations.
(Your post is funny at the end.)
The real question is:
– Will the Bob Barr effect annihilate the Ralph Nader effect?
[…] to poke fun at the totally unrealistic expectations of Libertarian Party advocates (a couple times at Midas Oracle), so here’s a brief (and completely amateur) analysis of those contracts (and Nader […]