Prediction Markets = Collective Forecasting = Collective Intelligence That Predicts

Tag Archives: bloggers

*Years* later, the BetFair blogs are still *not* taking off.

- Google PageRank of Betting @ BetFair: 5 / 10.
- Google PageRank of BetFair Predicts: 4 / 10.
- Number of feed subscribers at Google Reader for Betting @ BetFair: 29.
- Number of feed subscribers at Google Reader for BetFair Predicts: 17.
All this in spite of the 45 part-time writers and the SEO experts (or so [...]

A new glimpse into the revamped Overcoming Bias

Robin Hanson:
Chris, Eliezer was not “purged.” He requested to have his old posts moved to Less Wrong. No one else has made any similar request.
Eliezer was not “expelled”; he choose to move in order to build a community at Less Wrong using fancy comment karma software. The folks who wrote software for his new site [...]

What makes a good blog, and how much can you value a popular blog?

So, how does our Master Of All Universes justify his expelling of his co-bloggers?
Overcoming Bias began in November ‘06 as a group blog on the general theme of how to move our beliefs closer to reality, in the face of our natural biases such as overconfidence and wishful thinking, and our bias to believe we [...]

Robin Hanson has overhauled his (ex-group) blog.

- Overcoming Bias is now a solo blog. (His conspirators are now grouped at Less Wrong.)
- His blog is on with a new webhost, and is probably not powered by TypePad anymore —I highly suspect WordPress. – (He should have chosen WordPress from day one, instead of listening sheepishly to his GMU acolyte. [...]

Why BetFair and InTrade as media can’t be trusted

TechCrunch:
As a consumer, when’s the last time you read an advertorial and walked away inspired or informed?
Never.
And this is my version of the question:
As a consumer, when’s the last time you read a post by BetFair Predicts and walked away inspired or informed?
Never, as for moi. Do give your answer in the comments. Commercial companies [...]

Both Google and the FTC will monitor the credibility of your prediction market blog.

Google already assesses the reputation of blogs with its PageRank system (and the 199 other parameters that its algorithm computes). Now, we are learning that the FTC will go at it and monitor whether the bloggers who receive $$$ from commercial organizations do disclose that to their readers. In our field, it would apply to:

The [...]

Wiser Than James Surowiecki

In my previous post, I made an attempt at piercing the real identity of “Wiser Than The Crowd”… … Here is his reply:
Thanks for the link. Though I’m flattered that my writing is good enough to confuse someone into thinking that I work for the New Yorker, I really am a neuroscientist doing [...]

Making money on the spreading (or taming) of H1N1

For info, see our good friend “Caveat Bettor”, which is the pseudonym of a savvy New York-based financial expert —who made no mystery of his real identity to moi (I won’t tell).
See also “Wiser Than The Crowd”, which is probably the pseudonym of a very smart financial expert, financial entrepreneur and prolific book author —with [...]

The 80 Best WordPress Plugins

The 80 Best WordPress Plugins
All of them have been tested extensively by me on my 2 blogs.

Hearthis post

Blogging Against The Hype

I have been blogging a lot about the damage done by some Ivory Tower economic professors and some commercial practitioners who exaggerate the benefits of the prediction markets. (Some people are not very happy with what I said. ) The Gartner consultants have a word for that —”hype”. Hyping is defined as the [...]

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