Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: basketball

HubDub: “If you sign up a friend and he/she wins a prize, then you win the same prize.”

HubDub – March Madness 2009:
*Prediction Market Technology – Experience March Madness Like Never Before*
March 16th: Anticipation is running high for the 2009 NCAA Division I Men’s
Basketball Championship (popularly known as March Madness) with the first
round tipping off on March 19th.
On the web users can watch all the live action for free on CBSSports.com.
Additionally, there are [...]

In a blow to the French, BetFair choose Bastille Day to premiere the revised version of the bet-matching logic of their prediction markets. — IMPROVEMENT MEANS BETTER LIQUIDITY FOR THEIR EVENT DERIVATIVE TRADERS.

-
BetFair:
Improvements to Betfair’s bet matching logic today, Monday 14th July:
What’s changing?
We’ve improved the code that matches bets. As well as matching backs against lays as we’ve always done, we’ll also try to match your bet against bets on other selections in the market. We‘ll give you an improvement over the price you‘ve requested where possible, [...]

One thing, among plenty of others, that shows me that the big prediction exchanges (InTrade, TradeSports, BetFair, TradeFair) don’t take prediction market journalism seriously

The latest issue of InTrade’s newsletter publishes static charts —not dynamic charts.
If the biggest US-oriented prediction exchange doesn’t get that simple thing, then why would the journalists and bloggers get it?
John Delaney is skilled at sending e-mail insults, but as a web publisher, he is a zero.
The executives at the helm of the big prediction [...]

Only bloggers do link to the prediction markets —mainstream media, like ABC News, never do.

Can NewsFutures Really Predict the Future?
… asks ABC News (4 pages):

[...] NewsFutures creator Emile Servan-Schreiber believes that prediction markets like his are the “future of journalism.” [*] “It gives people the news of today and lets them give you the news of tomorrow in a probabilistic fashion by asking them to take bets on what [...]

Are you a better predictor than John McCain?

Via Bo Cowgill of Google, via Foreign Policy, John McCain:

-
They would do anything to sell politics, these days.
-
Foreign Policy:

It’s a clever marketing ploy by team McCain, but why stop there? Why not have the candidate take positions in predictions markets such as Intrade? Wouldn’t we rather know how prescient Senator McCain is about [...]

Better Pricing for Tournament Prediction Markets

Last year while working out a few thoughts on arbitrage opportunities in basketball tournament prediction markets at Inkling, it occurred to me that the Inkling pricing mechanism was just a little bit off for such applications. The question is whether something better can be done. An answer comes from the folks at Yahoo Research: yes.
Inkling’s [...]

After Predicting an Event Outcome, Does Anticipated Regret Take All of the Fun Out of Watching the Event?

“When people make these predictions, they have this little sliver of doubt – ‘What if I’m wrong?,’” [Stephen] Nowlis says. … The researchers dubbed this emotion “anticipated regret.”
A pair Arizona State University professors, Stephen Nowlis and Naomi Mandel, have research forthcoming in the Journal of Consumer Research in which they claim that predicting an [...]

Secrets of an Inkling Top Trader: Spotting Riskless Arbitrage Opportunities

The following is a lightly edited version of an item initially posted on my blog at Knowledge Problem: Secrets of an Inkling Top Trader: Spotting Riskless Arbitrage Opportunities:
As mentioned previously at the Knowledge Problem, Inkling offers a public play-money prediction market. I stumbled across them a year or so ago, and because I’m interested in [...]

Is Nate Kontny of Inkling Markets… UNE BRUTE EPAISSE???

(Translation not provided.)
Nate Kontny:
[...] Obviously, it’s no fun to have broken ribs. They really kick your ass. It’s also been real trying on my wife who has to do so much because I can’t, like driving or carrying the heavy groceries home. [...] My original plan was to go back to the gym on May [...]

BetFair, Sim Exchange = Vertical Prediction Exchanges, First

The Sim Exchange’s founder (Brian Shiau):
Chris [Masse] speculated on whether the simExchange will become a more generalist exchange, like BetFair, which began as a horseracing market before transforming into a general prediction market.
The simExchange is indeed exploring the possibility of expanding beyond traditional console and PC games, such as the immediately close tangent of downloaded [...]

Search

Post Categories