Tag Archives: basketball

HubDub: “If you sign up a friend and he/she wins a prize, then you win the same prize.”

Posted on March 16, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

HubDub – March Madness 2009: *Prediction Market Technology – Experience March Madness Like Never Before* March 16th: Anticipation is running high for the 2009 NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Championship (popularly known as March Madness) with the first round tipping … Continue reading →

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In a blow to the French, BetFair choose Bastille Day to premiere the revised version of the bet-matching logic of their prediction markets. — IMPROVEMENT MEANS BETTER LIQUIDITY FOR THEIR EVENT DERIVATIVE TRADERS.

Posted on July 14, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- BetFair: Improvements to Betfair’s bet matching logic today, Monday 14th July: What’s changing? We’ve improved the code that matches bets. As well as matching backs against lays as we’ve always done, we’ll also try to match your bet against … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Exchange & Market Designs, Exchanges & Markets, Explainers, Market Liquidity, Mechanism Designs | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments

One thing, among plenty of others, that shows me that the big prediction exchanges (InTrade, TradeSports, BetFair, TradeFair) don’t take prediction market journalism seriously

Posted on May 15, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

The latest issue of InTrade’s newsletter publishes static charts —not dynamic charts. If the biggest US-oriented prediction exchange doesn’t get that simple thing, then why would the journalists and bloggers get it? John Delaney is skilled at sending e-mail insults, … Continue reading →

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Only bloggers do link to the prediction markets —mainstream media, like ABC News, never do.

Posted on April 2, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Can NewsFutures Really Predict the Future? … asks ABC News (4 pages): [...] NewsFutures creator Emile Servan-Schreiber believes that prediction markets like his are the “future of journalism.” [*] “It gives people the news of today and lets them give … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Journalism | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments

Are you a better predictor than John McCain?

Posted on March 18, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Via Bo Cowgill of Google, via Foreign Policy, John McCain: – They would do anything to sell politics, these days. – Foreign Policy: It’s a clever marketing ploy by team McCain, but why stop there? Why not have the candidate … Continue reading →

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Better Pricing for Tournament Prediction Markets

Posted on January 14, 2008 by Michael Giberson

Last year while working out a few thoughts on arbitrage opportunities in basketball tournament prediction markets at Inkling, it occurred to me that the Inkling pricing mechanism was just a little bit off for such applications. The question is whether … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchanges & Markets, Inventions & Innovations, Market Makers (Automated) | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

After Predicting an Event Outcome, Does Anticipated Regret Take All of the Fun Out of Watching the Event?

Posted on June 10, 2007 by Michael Giberson

“When people make these predictions, they have this little sliver of doubt – ‘What if I’m wrong?,’” [Stephen] Nowlis says. … The researchers dubbed this emotion “anticipated regret.” A pair Arizona State University professors, Stephen Nowlis and Naomi Mandel, have … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Psychology | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Secrets of an Inkling Top Trader: Spotting Riskless Arbitrage Opportunities

Posted on May 9, 2007 by Michael Giberson

The following is a lightly edited version of an item initially posted on my blog at Knowledge Problem: Secrets of an Inkling Top Trader: Spotting Riskless Arbitrage Opportunities: As mentioned previously at the Knowledge Problem, Inkling offers a public play-money … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Market Trading | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 14 Comments

Is Nate Kontny of Inkling Markets… UNE BRUTE EPAISSE???

Posted on April 29, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

(Translation not provided.) Nate Kontny: [...] Obviously, it’s no fun to have broken ribs. They really kick your ass. It’s also been real trying on my wife who has to do so much because I can’t, like driving or carrying … Continue reading →

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BetFair, Sim Exchange = Vertical Prediction Exchanges, First

Posted on March 4, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

The Sim Exchange’s founder (Brian Shiau): Chris [Masse] speculated on whether the simExchange will become a more generalist exchange, like BetFair, which began as a horseracing market before transforming into a general prediction market. The simExchange is indeed exploring the … Continue reading →

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