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Conditional Likelihood Loss — Redux

- Nate Silver: 0.6032 – InTrade: 0.3699 – HubDub: 0.2237 HubDub beats both InTrade and Nate Silver.

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

A Mystery Wrapped In A Riddle Inside An Enigma

How come HubDub managed to get it right, when all the major prediction exchanges (BetFair, HSX, InTrade, NewsFutures, and even Nate Silver) all saw Mickey Rourke? – 81st Academy Awards: Who will win the Oscar for Best Actor?

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , | 5 Comments

InTrade DOT NET — www.intrade.net

This post is a very short review of their new website. I might publish a deeper review, later on. The log line is that InTrade CEO John Delaney has ingested all the innovations that HubDub has brought to the prediction … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Exchanges & Markets, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments

The best blogs on prediction markets

CFM: Blogs Midas Oracle: Links – Send me your blog URL, if you write on prediction markets —and I’ll Include it in the list (maybe ). The new kid on the block is The Quantified Pundit. Great blog name. Bookmark … Continue reading

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BetFair would be better off getting inspiration from Google.

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