Tag Archives: accuracy
In most cases, the team (including the best predictors) outshines the best predictor working alone.
I had a question about VentureBeat’s statement, and Leslie Fine has answered it.
VentureBeat:
As everyone has known since the modern corporation was invented, employees such as executive assistants or production line managers often have better information and more accurate insight than their management.
CrowdCast’s Leslie Fine:
The claim here is not that the administrator knows more than the [...]
The Accuracy Of Prediction Markets
- A Lesson in Prediction Markets from the Game of Craps – by Paul Hewitt
- Why Public Prediction Markets Fail – by Paul Hewitt
Both articles are required reading for Jed Christiansen and Panos Ipeirotis (alias “Prof Panos”).
Hearthis post
So much for Prof Panos and his data religion
People answer bullshit when polled by Prof Panos and other stats collectors.
Hearthis post
The prediction markets chalk another one up, as Susan Boyle is sent packing.
I have an ongoing disagreement with Prof Panos about how to report a set of expired prediction markets. He claims that one should report “the historic average of similar markets”. That’s important but not urgent. First thing is to report whether one prediction market of interest has failed or succeeded. I have explained that that [...]
Prof Panos hates it when I point to a prediction market “failure”.
Hearthis post
Why reporting on *one* expired prediction market is no fun… when using the scientific approach
Panos Ipeirotis hates it when I report an individual prediction market “failure“. (”Stupidity” is how he labelled it. )
I am a fan of Panos Ipeirotis’s scientific approach on prediction markets. It is all right.
However, I (obviously) won’t use the statistical and probabilistic approach when reporting about the expiry of one (or two) prediction [...]
Prediction markets must have sufficient information completeness to accurately predict outcomes with a reasonable degree of certainty.
Dixit Paul Hewitt.
More tomorrow on this.
Hearthis post
Even when well calibrated, prediction markets can be useless, nevertheless.
Paul Hewitt:
The point of this discussion is that prediction markets should be well-calibrated, but this is not a sufficient condition for their usefulness. They must also provide accurate predictions, with relatively tight distributions. The maximum allowable dispersion of the distribution will depend on the materiality of the forecast error. That is, the prediction [...]
Prediction markets failed miserably at forecasting accurately the American Idol winner.
Aggregating information was not enough to predict the future —this time. Our prediction exchanges won’t issue any statement about it: They will keep it under the rug. When their prediction markets succeed, they brag about it in the media. But when prediction markets fail miserably, it is a deafening silence out there. The “wisdom of [...]
Are prediction markets useful to our global civilization?
Announcement from the Prediction Markets group at LinkedIn:
Hello dear members,
We all love prediction markets. We are [286] on this group. Please, do forward this e-mail to one or two of your friends who love the prediction markets, so they can join us.
http://www.linkedin.com/e/gis/152133
The issues that are up in the air, these days:
- Are prediction markets really [...]
Recent Comments