Tag Archives: accuracy

New Hampshire prediction markets screwed up political forecasting in 2008. Will they be right this time? — [CHARTS]

Posted on January 10, 2012 by Chris F. Masse

The political prediction markets got the Democratic race wrong in New Hampshire, last time. More here. – New Hampshire – The Democrats – The Hillary Clinton event derivative was expired to 100. – New Hampshire – The Republicans – The … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged 2008 New Hampshire Presidential Primary, 2008 US presidential elections, accuracy, Barack Obama, betting markets, Collective Intelligence, democrats, event derivative markets, event derivatives, events, Hillary Clinton, idea futures, indicators, John McCain, New Hampshire, polls, prediction markets, US presidential elections, US primaries, wisdom of crowds | 1 Comment

Accuracy vs Precision — [VIDEO]

Posted on December 15, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Posted in Science | Tagged accuracy, precision | Leave a comment

Prediction markets are unable to accurately predict long-term outcomes, and they have poor records for accuracy and reliability, all of which are crucial for enterprise adoption.

Posted on January 12, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Paul Hewitt: – How far in advance can prediction markets make accurate predictions? – How will we know the point in time when a prediction is ‘accurate’? – Why are there wildly different predictions of the same outcome in different … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Market Efficiency), Analysis (Meta), Exchange & Market Designs, Exchange Liquidity, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged accuracy, bets, Betting, betting exchanges, betting markets, bettors, efficiency, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, event derivatives, information completeness, Paul Hewitt, precision, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, reliability, traders | Leave a comment

Paul Krugman Makes a Boo Boo.

Posted on March 23, 2010 by Paul Hewitt

In Paul Krugman’s blog entry, Done, at 4:39pm (EDT) on March 21, 2010, he commented: “OK, nothing is sure in this world. Intrade is still giving Obamacare a 2.2% chance of failing, â€¦” He was talking about the InTrade market … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Market Transaction Costs, Politics | Tagged accuracy, betting markets, event derivative markets, InTrade, odds, Paul Krugman, prediction markets, probabilities, US politics | 4 Comments

What has been the best InTrade prediction market ever? Has the ObamaCare prediction market at InTrade been “ahead of the commentary”?

Posted on March 16, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

Jason Ruspini (who feels that the health care reform proposal might well be adopted) wanna feedback from you, folks. Which InTrade prediction market(s) has/have been ahead of the Press (rather than the other way around)? What is/are the best (most … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Predictions - Forecasts | Tagged accuracy, betting markets, event derivative markets, health care reform, InTrade, ObamaCare, Politics, prediction markets, US politics | 3 Comments

Truth in Advertising – Meet Prediction Markets

Posted on March 14, 2010 by Paul Hewitt

Most published papers on prediction markets (there aren’t many) paint a wildly rosy picture of their accuracy. Perhaps it is because many of these papers are written by researchers having affiliations with prediction market vendors. Robin Hanson is Chief Scientist … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged accuracy, betting markets, David Pennock, enterprise prediction markets, event derivative markets, prediction markets | Leave a comment

Why you should never trust David Pennock when he brags about the accuracy of his predictions

Posted on March 14, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

He cherry-picks positive outcomes in hindsight, and he measures probabilistic predictions categorically and in isolation. Don’t be fooled by any “research scientist”.

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Economics, Humor, Prediction Post-Mortem, Science | Tagged accuracy, forecasts, Humor, Predictions, probabilities | 5 Comments

OSCARS 2010: Did Justin Wolfers brag too much and too loudly? — [RELATIVE ACCURACY DEPARTMENT]

Posted on March 10, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

Jason (a Freakonomics reader): You are giving yourself WAY too much credit. Siskel and Ebert successfully predict these awards 100% year after year. This isnâ€™t a difficult thing to predict. Predicting something like the NCAA tourney, that would be an … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Post-Mortem | Tagged accuracy, betting markets, event derivative markets, Justin Wolfers, Oscars 2010, prediction markets, relative accuracy | Leave a comment

Ray Kurzweil (Robin Hanson’s guru) got his 1999-2009 predictions … all wrong.

Posted on January 6, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

- Michael Anissimov: Kurzweilâ€™s Failed 2009 Predictions – More at the Next Big Future — (an excellent blog) UPDATE

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Inventions & Innovations | Tagged accuracy, forecasts, post-mortem predictions, Prediction Post-Mortem, Predictions, Ray Kurzweil | 2 Comments

How the prediction market industry lied to the media (and the public, YOU) about Hewlett-Packard’s pilot tests regarding enterprise prediction markets

Posted on December 4, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Paul Hewitt on the Hewlett-Packard (HP) prediction markets: Another tried-and-true method is to repeat a statement over-and-over until it becomes a â€œfactâ€. The best example of this, regarding prediction markets, is the claim that they are â€œprovenâ€ by virtue of … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Prediction Post-Mortem | Tagged accuracy, betting markets, Collective Forecasting, enterprise prediction markets, event derivative markets, Hewlett-Packard, HP, prediction markets | Leave a comment

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