Category Archives: Exchange & Market Designs

A Multi-Agent Prediction Market Based on Boolean Network Evolution — [PAPER]

Posted on September 13, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

A Multi-Agent Prediction Market Based on Boolean Network Evolution – PDF file.

Posted in Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Economics, Exchange & Market Designs, Exchanges & Markets, Mechanism Designs | Tagged bets, Betting, betting markets, boolean network, event derivative markets, event derivatives, prediction markets | Leave a comment

David Pennock on Predictalot — [LINK]

Posted on March 25, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

… in Freakonomics.

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchange & Market Designs, Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets, Mechanism Designs | Tagged bets, Betting, betting markets, David Pennock, event derivative markets, event derivatives, exchange designs, Freakonomics, market designs, Mechanism Designs, Predictalot, prediction markets | Leave a comment

PREDICTALOT IS THE LARGEST PREDICTION EXCHANGE CREATED BY NUMBER OF OUTCOMES (9.2 QUINTILLION). — [LINK]

Posted on March 15, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

http://predictalot.yahoo.com/ Predictalot on FaceBook. David Pennock: I believe it’s the largest prediction market created by number of outcomes (9.2 quintillion). We’re approximating a #P-hard problem to get the odds. More here. I believe v0.3 is faster and easier to use … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchange & Market Designs, Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets, Mechanism Designs | Tagged bets, Betting, betting exchanges, betting markets, David Pennock, derivative exchanges, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, event derivatives, exchanges, FaceBook, futures exchanges, March Madness, play-money betting markets, play-money prediction markets, Predictalot, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, Yahoo! | Leave a comment

Trading on Inkling’s prediction markets – [VIDEO]

Posted on January 20, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

More.

Posted in Exchange & Market Designs, Exchanges & Markets, Explainers, Market Makers (Automated), Market Trading, Mechanism Designs | Tagged Betting, betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Finance, Financial Markets, Inkling, inkling markets, play-money prediction markets, prediction markets, trading | Leave a comment

Prediction markets are unable to accurately predict long-term outcomes, and they have poor records for accuracy and reliability, all of which are crucial for enterprise adoption.

Posted on January 12, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Paul Hewitt: – How far in advance can prediction markets make accurate predictions? – How will we know the point in time when a prediction is ‘accurate’? – Why are there wildly different predictions of the same outcome in different … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Market Efficiency), Analysis (Meta), Exchange & Market Designs, Exchange Liquidity, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged accuracy, bets, Betting, betting exchanges, betting markets, bettors, efficiency, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, event derivatives, information completeness, Paul Hewitt, precision, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, reliability, traders | Leave a comment

David Pennock wants you to believe that InTrade needs Robin Hanson’s automated market maker.

Posted on July 10, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

“Our market maker automatically adjusts its level of liquidity depending on trading volume. Prices start off very responsive and, as volume increases, liquidity grows, obviating the need to somehow guess the ‘right’ level before trading even starts.”

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Exchange & Market Designs, Exchanges & Markets, Market Makers (Automated), Market Trading, Mechanism Designs, Research, Software | Tagged automated market maker, automated market makers, betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, InTrade, Pennock, Prediction Market Software, prediction markets, Robin Hanson, software for prediction markets | 1 Comment

What’s different about Predictalot?

Posted on June 25, 2010 by David Pennock

A predictalot user asked: What’s the difference between predict a lot y Bolsa de predicciones? they have the same things or at least very similar. ?Are you the same? They have predictions, groups, events etc. the only difference is the … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Betting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Economics, Exchange & Market Designs, Exchange Genesis, Exchange Liquidity, Exchanges & Markets, Inventions & Innovations, Market Makers (Automated), Market Prices & Probabilities, Research | Tagged David Pennock, forecasting, forecasts, Predictalot, predicting, Predictions | 1 Comment

Dear MO reader: Why you should try Predictalot

Posted on March 16, 2010 by David Pennock

Why should you try Predictalot? Gamers: Make almost any prediction you can think of about March Madness, the NCAA men’s basketball tournament. Sports fans: Check the crowd’s odds: Is St. Mary’s the next Cinderella? Economists: Play with a true combinatorial … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Betting, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Economics, Exchange & Market Designs, Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets, Inventions & Innovations, Market Makers (Automated), Mechanism Designs, Research, Software, Sports | Tagged Betting, betting markets, David Pennock, event derivative markets, gaming, Predictalot, prediction markets, Sports | Leave a comment

Predictalot = combinatorial prediction markets (a la Robin Hanson)

Posted on March 5, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

Predictalot David Pennock explains Predictalot.

Posted in Exchange & Market Designs, Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets, Market Makers (Automated), Mechanism Designs | Tagged betting exchanges, betting markets, combinatorial prediction markets, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, Predictalot, prediction exchanges, prediction markets | 1 Comment

Smarkets better than BetFair and InTrade

Posted on February 21, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

Smarkets now allows you to set your own odds in the format of your choice — percentages, fractions, decimals, or American odds. External Link: Smarkets

Posted in Exchange & Market Designs, Exchanges & Markets, Inventions & Innovations, Software | Tagged BetFair, decimals, fractions, InTrade, odds, percentages, Prediction Market Software, probabilities, Smarkets, software for prediction markets, TradeSports | Leave a comment

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