Prediction Markets = Collective Forecasting = Collective Intelligence That Predicts

Category Archives: Economics

The Automated Economy — by David Pennock

David Pennock is a now rock star… in India:

- David Pennock’s post on The Automated Economy
- Videos – The Automated Economy

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David Pennock on The Automated Economy

- His post.
It’s the closest I’ll ever be to a rock star. A handful of people wait patiently around me while I try to get to everyone. Eventually the PR folks rescue me and take me to a “high tea” event with Yahoo! Bangalore execs and some recruiting targets.
- Videos – I am downloading them [...]

Eric Zitzewitz wanna bet with Brad DeLong.

Brad DeLong bended Eric Zitzewitz’s ear, and now our Dartmouth padawan wants a bet:
Brad,
The post you refer to is a follow up post to a post in March that does a similar analysis about the S&P 500.
http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/03/02/quantifying-the-nightmare-scenarios/
In that post (linked to in the post about Treasuries) I make the point about the marginal utility of [...]

The “efficient markets” hypothesis is dead.

An interesting piece in this morning’s FT by Gillian Tett.
The Chartered Financial Analyst Institute, which for many years had taught the so-called “efficient markets” hypothesis to thousands of students, asked its members for the first time if they trusted in “market efficiency” – and discovered that more than two-thirds of respondents no longer believed that [...]

Can prediction markets help improve economic forecasts?

Contrary to the suggestion of Hendry and Reade, I don’t think “model averaging” is a useful explanation of what prediction markets do.

The Freakonomics song

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If they stole Robin Hanson’s ideas on prediction markets, does it mean that his ideas are good?

Robin Hanson thinks so.
I would agree. What do you, guys, think?

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Journal of Predictions Markets: Special Issue on Corporate Applications

The current issue of the JPM focuses on the use of prediction and idea markets within firms. The papers stem from the Conference on Corporate Applications of Prediction/Information Markets held at the Kauffman Foundation on 1 November 2007.
The issue aims to provide an introduction to those new to the field as well as to describe [...]

Alex Tabarrok on how ideas trump crises – TED 2009

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Does information economics apply to prediction markets?

Who is Paul Hewitt… and what the hell is “information economics”…!??…

About Paul S. Hewitt, B.Comm, CA
I am a Chartered Accountant with a public practice in Toronto, Canada. While much of my work involves personal and corporate income tax, my practice consults with corporations to improve their business planning processes. I am a graduate of the University of [...]

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