Interviewees often say that since there are more sellers than buyers, the sellers get to determine the price. That logic usually yields an answer between 90 and 91. That’-s exactly wrong. “-They’-re not thinking about what’-s going on in the real world,”- says Rubczyk. In reality, when there are more sellers than buyers, the price falls. So the next sale would probably be in the mid- to low 80s.
“-Some candidates would say you can’-t answer that question, because there’-s no formula,”- says Rusczyk. “-If that makes their heads explode, that’-s a problem.”-
What would our Jason Ruspini have answered to that quiz?
Insider trading is one of the wicked problems, perhaps. Intrade is about providing the best predictive information. If insiders have information, then getting that information reflected in the market increases the quality of the information. I know this is not the conventional view concerning insider trading, and I am not arguing wholesale adoption or acceptance of insider trading. But we all know that, in the real world, insiders trade on inside information. We have even had markets on insider trading. Our view is to get the best information available into the market while we make sure there is some fair protection for outsiders.
As I said, the problem is that this view is very unpopular among event derivative traders.