HubDubs Nigel Eccles thumbs his nose at Nate Silver.
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Yearly Archives: 2009
John Stewart unloads on CNBCs Jim Cramer.
The Daily Show With Jon StewartM – Th 11p / 10cCNBC Gives Financial Advice
Daily Show Full Episodes
Important Things With Demetri MartinPolitical Humor
Joke of the Day
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The Daily Show With Jon StewartM – Th 11p / 10cJim Cramer Unedited Interview Pt. 1
Daily Show Full Episodes
Important Things w/ Demetri MartinPolitical Humor
Jim Cramer
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The Daily Show With Jon StewartM – Th 11p / 10cJim Cramer Unedited Interview Pt. 2
Daily Show Full Episodes
Important Things w/ Demetri MartinPolitical Humor
Jim Cramer
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The Daily Show With Jon StewartM – Th 11p / 10cJim Cramer Unedited Interview Pt. 3
Daily Show Full Episodes
Important Things w/ Demetri MartinPolitical Humor
Jim Cramer
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UPDATE: Jim Cramer on John Stewart
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The attacker was from Nashville, Tennesse.
Yesterday, I explained to you in great details how the attacker tried to incriminate NewsFutures by creating the illusion that the 2 websites denigrating me were webhosted by NewsFutures —-a forged Reverse IP Lookup gave this false impression. Today, I would like to investigate the hypothesis the IP addresses of the attacker.
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First ever comment from “-The Colonel”-:
Why are you so quick to assume that the sum total of that company’s employees is only those listed in the press release? Consensus Point is a vast and glowing network of neurons and axons, spanning a veritable galaxy of prediction market technology. Surely there must be artists, coders, schemers, evil geniuses, dolts, and assorted scribblers involved in such a breathtaking endeavor.
http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/02/17/linda-rebrovick-consensus-point/#comment-23404
74.165.154.224
http://whois.domaintools.com/74.165.154.224
BellSouth – Nashville
Second comment from The Colonel (who, for the first time, uses the link to chrismasse.com under his byline):
http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/03/04/google-inkling-markets-is-ranked-much-higher-than-consensus-point/#comment-23565
68.52.155.14
http://whois.domaintools.com/68.52.155.14
ComCast – Nashville
Defending the “-chief scientist”-:
http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/03/04/the-prediction-market-consultants-who-matter-and-the-others-who-dont/#comment-23567
98.211.0.48
http://whois.domaintools.com/98.211.0.48
ComCast – Murfreesboro (a suburb of Nashville, Tennesse)
[UPDATE: The president of the company indeed lives in Murfreesboro, see the bottom of that page.]
Telling Chris Masse’-s opinion is worthless.
http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/03/04/google-inkling-markets-is-ranked-much-higher-than-consensus-point/#comment-23583
68.52.155.14
http://whois.domaintools.com/68.52.155.14
ComCast – Nashville
His further comments (after that Niall O’-Connor has step up in the browl):
http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/03/06/chris-f-masse-is-a-fraud/#comment-23623
67.207.137.220
http://whois.domaintools.com/67.207.137.220
BellSouth – San Diego
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NEXT: Dave, was it *you*?
NEXT: Who did it?
You can have fun and earn easy money on HubDub… if you know who did it… or if you think that he/she will get away with it.
The 6 little things David Pennock didnt tell you about the Prediction Market Institute
– #1. – It is not such a great idea to call it a “-prediction market institute”-, for the reasons that it excludes the non-market mechanisms and the other collective intelligence mechanisms. (See Daniel’-s comment on the Pennock blog, here.) That said, it should focus on prediction markets —-do you feel the nuance, doc?
– #2. – It shall not be a pure academic endeavor. It shall be a mix between academics, exchange operators, and other participants in the field of prediction markets. The term “-applied research”- conveys it. It is “-applied”- in the sense that it is not research eggheads bottling up in yet another Ivory Tower. The outputs of this PMI should be useful for the prediction exchanges and the software vendors.
– #3. – One of the purpose of regrouping the prediction market forces into a grand consortium would be to seek external alliances with some foundations, think tanks or educational organizations that might share our ideology —-yes, I said “-ideology”-.
– #4. – It is not such a great idea to set up our own organization from scratch. It is more pragmatic to seek out the creation of a “-unit”- or “-department”- within an already existed organization that has a larger purpose than ours —-for instance, one focused on “-derivatives”-, “-wisdom of crowds”-, “-digital business”-, “-knowledge management”-, “-forecasting”-, or whatever meta keyword you can think of and that encompasses the prediction markets and their cousin mechanisms.
– #5. – It shall have a clear strategy, game plan, and way to assess the results.
– #6. – It shall have David Pennock on top. That guy is our common denominator. He is our most sociable element. He never slammed anyone. (The only time he went on being bombastic is when, being a boy, he told his mother, “-I don’-t like broccolis, they taste like fractals.”-)
It was *not* San Francisco-based Mat Fogarty who did it… He was too busy making money.
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The attacker was probably someone with too much time on his hands —-a prediction market vendor who can’-t sell…- or another idle prediction market person.
Another day… and yet another lie from the BetFair SEO artists…
The BetFair SEO artists (and other “-social media consultants”-) would say just say *anything* and do *anything* to get a blogger to link to betting.betfair.com. Including a falsification. Here is what they e-mailed me:
[…] betting.betfair.com. You may or may not have seen the site before, but basically it’s a big sports blog with about 45 writers […!!!…] doing useful previews, tips and analysis from lots of different sports. It’s an excellent site and one which has received recognition from the Soccerlens awards.
Soccerlens.com (big football blog) described betting.betfair.com as “-head and shoulders above the rest in terms of providing useful betting advice to their readers”-. […]
It is not exactly true.
Here is what Soccer Lens really says (look up the last line in bold):
Best Football Betting Site of 2008
Readers’ Choice: OLBG.
Online Betting Guide (OLBG) is a comprehensive resource for football betting and one of the most popular betting sites around.
Runner Up: Betfair.
Editors’ Choice: OLBG.
We’ve discussed this before – not all the top sites on football betting were included in the nominations. Of those that were, OLBG (and Betfair) stood head and shoulders above the rest in terms of providing useful betting advice to their readers.
Runner Up: Betfair.
The winner for this category (for best soccer betting blog) was OBLG —-it was both the readers’- choice and the editors’- choice.
The BetFair blog came second —-in both the readers’- choice and the editors’- choice.
So it is just a lie to say that:
Soccerlens.com (big football blog) described betting.betfair.com as “-head and shoulders above the rest in terms of providing useful betting advice to their readers”-.
The truth is rather:
Soccerlens.com (big football blog) described OBLG as “-head and shoulders above the rest in terms of providing useful betting advice to their readers”-.
How to set Reverse IP Lookup to anything that you like (or dislike, should I say, in this case)… including a NewsFutures server that does not exist in reality…!!!…
Dear readers,
Now is time to give you some background information about last week’-s incident. As you all know, somebody was irked by what I said about the EPM software vendors and set up, not one, but two websites denigrating moi.
#1. I don’-t care if someone makes a fool of moi. I am fair game. Plus, it gives a laughing opportunity to the Chief Economist of Midas Oracle, because it is revenge for my making fool of him when he is so wrong about the article in The Economist or else (follow the HubDub link given by Mike Linksvayer).
#2. My big concern with that attack is that it might well come from somebody I know —-and who has always had the kindest words for me (including last week). So, that person might well be a hypocrite, and my trust in him (and his prediction market company, if any) will be wiped out, if my suspicion is confirmed.
#3. My secondary concern is that that attacker (who might well be a prediction market software vendor or a disgruntled employee) tried to put the blame on NewsFutures (both a prediction market software vendor and a public prediction exchange) for the 2 websites (”-Chris F. Masse is a Fraud”-, and “-Overcoming Midas”-). Just after that the 2 websites were discovered (by one innocent reader, who simply followed the web link posted by a commenter, “-The Colonel”-), many people e-mailed me to tell that I should do a “-reverse IP lookup“- to find out who is behind…- I did…- The result was “-dev24.newsfutures.com”-. I was very surprised to see NewsFutures involved in this attack, and I sent the link to Emile Servan-Schreiber, who, first, expressed astonishment, and then forwarded the link to his CTO (Maurice Balick, some of you know him very well), who is a computer whiz and a master of “-The Internets”- —-as would say former president George W. Bush. 
It turned out that:
– NewsFutures sent a “-cease and desist”- letter to the webhost of these 2 websites. Here is a very short excerpt of the NewsFutures letter:
That IP address provides a Reverse-ARP record containing dev24.newsfutures.com. However, we own the domain newsfutures.com and we have never authorized anyone to setup this fake RARP record.
– In the meantime, following the brouhaha made on Midas Oracle when the IP address of The Colonel was revealed, the attacker cleared the RARP record during the night so that it no longer pointed to NewsFutures (the non-existent dev24.newsfutures.com address).
– There are other technical and legal developments to this case, but I am not at liberty to talk further.
– However, I would like to explain to you how it was possible to put the blame on NewsFutures…- even though Emile and his team had nothing to do with this attack.
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The Reverse IP Lookup is so easy to fudge that it’-s totally meaningless. It’-s something that prediction market people should know about, so that, in the future, they would not be fooled into drawing conclusions from this kind of “-evidence”-.
To understand how one could fraudulently make a reverse IP lookup point to a newsfutures.com domain, Emile and Maurice bought a $20 slice on the webhost where the chrismasse.com and overcomingmidas.com websites were hosted. The hosting service then lets you set the “-reverse DNS”- to any URL that you like, and within a few seconds the Reverse IP Lookup tool on iWebTools will point to the URL that you chose. As an example (and as a blink-blink sign to Mike Giberson and Mike Linksvayer), Emile and Maurice made the IP point to “-dev24.midasoracle.org”-.
Try it: http://www.iwebtool.com/reverse_ip?domain=67.23.8.251
CONCLUSION: Someone tried to incriminate NewsFutures (and fuck with our readers’- mind) by setting up these agressive websites and having the Reverse IP Lookup point to a fake NewsFutures URL.
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UPDATE:
Did the attacker try to pin it on, not just one, but *two* prediction market software vendors?
http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/03/13/did-the-attacker-try-to-pin-it-on-not-just-one-but-two-prediction-market-software-vendors/
InTrades Accounts and Balance Sheets – 2007 and 2008
This material is available on: http://www.cro.ie/ .
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2007
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2008
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There might be a slight discrepancy between the accounts and the balance sheet. If you, too, spot it, then publish a comment just below, and we will share our thoughts. (Please, do not publish any negative comment that can be legally reprehensible.)
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I have obscured the personal addresses of these 2 persons:
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The European Union has ruled that betting and gambling is *NOT* an economic activity to which internal market rules on freedom to provide services should apply.
– “-MEPs yesterday (10 March) overwhelmingly rejected the idea of creating an EU single market for online gambling, backing member states’- right to decide on market liberalisation.”-