Yearly Archives: 2008

The BetFair-Fallon debacle cost British taxpayers ?950,000.

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Jesus.

Thank God I don&#8217-t pay my taxes in the UK. I&#8217-d be furious at BetFair and at the British Police.

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NEXT: Has BetFair a little part of responsibility in the collapse of the Kieren Fallon trial?

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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • A second look at HedgeStreet’s comment to the CFTC about “event markets”
  • Since YooPick opened their door, Midas Oracle has been getting, daily, 2 or 3 dozens referrals from FaceBook.
  • US presidential hopeful John McCain hates the Midas Oracle bloggers.
  • If you have tried to contact Chris Masse thru the Midas Oracle Contact Form, I’m terribly sorry to inform you that your message was not delivered to the recipient.
  • THE CFTC’s SECRET AGENDA —UNVEILED.
  • “Over a ten-year period commencing on January 1, 2008, and ending on December 31, 2017, the S & P 500 will outperform a portfolio of funds of hedge funds, when performance is measured on a basis net of fees, costs and expenses.”
  • Meet professor Thomas W. Malone (on the right), from the MIT’s Center for Collective Intelligence.

The managing editor of CNBC.com asks readers whether they should report what the (play-money and real-money) prediction markets say. He is not that hot on the idea -to say the least. Which is why we should develop a blog network on prediction markets -to get rid of the journalists filter and report

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But the &#8220-gambling&#8221- nature puts some journalists off.

Is it just providing information &#8230- or promoting betting action?

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See, that&#8217-s exactly why I want to develop my &#8220-Midas Oracle Project&#8221-.

Classic journalists and classic bloggers will never treat prediction markets with the maximum sophistication they deserve.

Only brand-new blog networks that will specialize in prediction markets will do a good job.

I&#8217-ll provide more details soon.

I hope that some of you will join this project. It should be a collective endeavor.

E-mail me to join.

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Robust, the prediction markets are the best mechanism for aggregating information. Thus, companies should use them for assessing strategy and hedging risks.

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Via Emile Servan-Schreiber of NewsFutures, John Auters in the Financial Times.

[…] This leads to [Justin Wolfers]&#8216- claim that [prediction markets] are the best way to aggregate information. This is true of any given amount of information. Take three economists and make them trade out a market over their predictions for next month&#8217-s inflation number, he suggests, and they will arrive at a more accurate prediction than a poll of the same three economists. In a market, those with stronger conviction (or inside information) can express that conviction- those less confident will not be willing to stake money. […]

Prediction markets remain subject to the same weaknesses as other markets. The principle of &#8220-garbage in, garbage out&#8221- [*] applies. If there is only poor information to aggregate, they will be as wrong as everyone else. […]

It would make sense to incorporate these odds when making investments. […]

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Excellent.

(I don&#8217-t get his micro slam against the wisdom of crowds. Anyway.)

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[*] As explained in the prediction market explainer published on the frontpage of Midas Oracle.

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A historical Robin Hanson fanboy cant believe his hero signed Bobs ill-informed and unwise petition.

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Hal Finney:

My concern is that the small stakes limit of $2,000, the limits on who can operate markets, and the limitations on the scope of markets, will lead to spotty coverage which will preclude a robust evaluation of the merits of prediction markets in general. After all, we have intrade.com already which provides spotty coverage of a number of issues – how much more will this add?

Maybe &#8220-gambling can save science&#8220-, but I don&#8217-t see how these steps would show it.

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Proof that you can be &#8220-high IQ&#8221- and still lack judgment (in small ways).

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P.S.: Over that the micro slam above, I have the highest esteem and respect for Robin Hanson &#8212-a prediction market pioneer.

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Folks, you are reading this within Google Reader, ARENT YOU??

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Best RSS Newsreaders

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How to use the Midas Oracle feeds&#8230-

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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • A second look at HedgeStreet’s comment to the CFTC about “event markets”
  • Since YooPick opened their door, Midas Oracle has been getting, daily, 2 or 3 dozens referrals from FaceBook.
  • US presidential hopeful John McCain hates the Midas Oracle bloggers.
  • If you have tried to contact Chris Masse thru the Midas Oracle Contact Form, I’m terribly sorry to inform you that your message was not delivered to the recipient.
  • THE CFTC’s SECRET AGENDA —UNVEILED.
  • “Over a ten-year period commencing on January 1, 2008, and ending on December 31, 2017, the S & P 500 will outperform a portfolio of funds of hedge funds, when performance is measured on a basis net of fees, costs and expenses.”
  • Meet professor Thomas W. Malone (on the right), from the MIT’s Center for Collective Intelligence.

STEVE LEVITTS FREAKONOMICS HIJACKED BY HACKER – FAMOUS ECONOMICS BLOG TEMPORARILY DEFACED – ANTI-SPORTS BETTING BILE VOICED

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Freakonomics, the famous blog on economics, is powered by WordPress, which is known [*] to have grave security vulnerabilities. Yesterday, a dangerous hacker managed to get access to their blogging software, and published an opinion on the regulation of prediction markets, which represents the total opposite of what Steve Levitt believes in. No doubt the hacker (who signed as &#8220-The Australopithecus&#8220-) will get caught by the Police. No doubt Steve Levitt will get out of his torpor soon and re-establish the truth. We will then give airtime to Steve Levitt&#8217-s arguments, on Midas Oracle. We&#8217-re with you, doctor Levitt.

[*] I know that for a fact. Midas Oracle was hijacked yesterday by a dangerous hacker who signed as &#8220-The Barbecue&#8221-. I&#8217-m not responsible for what he said.

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Bob can play the pipe.

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The Pied Piper of Hamelin

Pied Piper with Children

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • A second look at HedgeStreet’s comment to the CFTC about “event markets”
  • Since YooPick opened their door, Midas Oracle has been getting, daily, 2 or 3 dozens referrals from FaceBook.
  • US presidential hopeful John McCain hates the Midas Oracle bloggers.
  • If you have tried to contact Chris Masse thru the Midas Oracle Contact Form, I’m terribly sorry to inform you that your message was not delivered to the recipient.
  • THE CFTC’s SECRET AGENDA —UNVEILED.
  • “Over a ten-year period commencing on January 1, 2008, and ending on December 31, 2017, the S & P 500 will outperform a portfolio of funds of hedge funds, when performance is measured on a basis net of fees, costs and expenses.”
  • Meet professor Thomas W. Malone (on the right), from the MIT’s Center for Collective Intelligence.

The Midas Oracle Project

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Einstein

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  1. the richer and most technically sophisticated form of prediction market journalism
  2. a very popular form of prediction market journalism

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Sounds like a too lofty dual goal- your feeling is right. My idea is to find an adequation between this (too) lofty dual goal and the class of organizations that could fund that. I have had a crazy idea, which I submitted to MG and some others, and it might not be that crazy after all. In the coming days, I&#8217-ll reach out to more Midas Oracle people.

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Besides informing you of my intention, the purpose of this post is to create the &#8220-Midas Oracle Project&#8221- category and tag. Stay tuned&#8230-

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ABC 20/20 – A good (but servile) explainer on the wisdom of crowds and the prediction markets

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ABC 20/20 featuring InTrade – (May 9, 2008)

Foretelling The Future: Online Prediction Markets &#8212- (4 pages in all)

ABC video

YouTube video

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  1. Not a single word about InTrade-TradeSports fucking up its traders during the North Korea Missile episode.
  2. Although James Surowiecki is a great thinker overall, I&#8217-m not happy he served InTrade&#8217-s past forecasting successes in absolute terms &#8212-and not in terms of probabilities. That shows James Surowiecki can&#8217-t be the ultimate leader of the field of prediction markets. Robin Hanson, Justin Wolfers, Koleman Strumpf, Eric Zitzewitz, or even Emile Servan-Schreiber, would have not made that mistake.
  3. All prediction markets are not created equal. Spot that they go too far, saying terrorism prediction markets or earthquake prediction markets could serve a societal purpose. That is complete bullshit. That is pure hype. As I said yesterday, an analyst should check whether a given prediction market is really able of aggregating important information. Just because John Delaney wants to create a betting market to get money doesn&#8217-t mean that that given prediction market will be able to give sound forecasts. Otherwise, we would have prediction markets about future lottery outcomes and we would make a fortune out of that. :-D
  4. Spot that they put the emphasis on the easy translation between the 0&#8211-100 prices and the 0&#8211-100 probabilities. That puts BetFair&#8217-s model (based on those damn digital/decimal odds) out of the picture.

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