My concern is that the small stakes limit of $2,000, the limits on who can operate markets, and the limitations on the scope of markets, will lead to spotty coverage which will preclude a robust evaluation of the merits of prediction markets in general. After all, we have intrade.com already which provides spotty coverage of a number of issues – how much more will this add?
Maybe “-gambling can save science“-, but I don’-t see how these steps would show it.
Proof that you can be “-high IQ”- and still lack judgment (in small ways).
P.S.: Over that the micro slam above, I have the highest esteem and respect for Robin Hanson —-a prediction market pioneer.