Betting markets don’t have any mystical power, but they do summarize conventional wisdom pretty well- […]
E-mail confidentially to tell me the names of the economists who over-hype the prediction markets.
…-it is a reasonably active market but atypically a lot of the trade is coming from the DC area when normally we might see trade coming from all the major urban areas.
ADDENDUM: For your information, in Great Britain, sporting insiders (such as athletes or jockeys) who trade on betting exchanges (such as BetFair) are actively monitored.
Augustin Landier is a man of minutiae. He runs a website at his glory that lists any paper, book or editorial he has penned. Except for one.
Our French smart ass co-wrote an Op-Ed in July 2007, titled, “-The mega-crash won’-t happen”- [PDF file]. Just everything in it was wrong, as the authors were defending the same rotten financial mechanisms and lack of regulations that generated the 2008 financial crisis.
Conveniently, this Op-Ed is not listed on his website —-while all the other ones are. Augustin Landier knows only one way to cover his ass —-hide things under the carpet. How courageous.
David Thesmar is a man of minutiae. He runs a website at his glory that lists any paper, book or editorial he has penned. Except for one.
Our French smart ass co-wrote an Op-Ed in July 2007, titled, “-The mega-crash won’-t happen”- [PDF file]. Just everything in it was wrong, as the authors were defending the same rotten financial mechanisms and lack of regulations that generated the 2008 financial crisis.
Conveniently, this Op-Ed is not listed on his website —-while all the other ones are. David Thesmar knows only one way to cover his ass —-hide things under the carpet. How courageous.
In part #2, he speaks about the books he is writing:
Emile Servan-Schreiber is doing a great job of putting prediction markets on the French media scene. (As I type this, he is on French TV.)
2 green-foot French economists (David Thesmar and Augustin Landier) are hyping the prediction markets in the French media, using a non-scientific language (“-predictive markets”-, “-stocks”- *) and few references to hard facts. Their background is not stellar. They penned an Op-Ed in July 2007, titled, “-The mega-crash won’-t happen”- [PDF file].
Of course, one year later, the developed world experienced (and is still experiencing) the worst financial crisis ever. What’-s funny is that, in 2007, our 2 economists-in-chief were hyping the non-regulated credit derivatives that sent us into the depression, and denying the possibility of systemic risk. What a bunch of incompetents.
Emile, please recruit more serious people.
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[*] The good vocabulary is “-prediction markets”-, and “-traded bets”- or “-event derivatives”-.
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