Monthly Archives: January 2010

In spite of Robin Hanson’s pumping them up, very few companies use enterprise prediction markets.

Posted on January 22, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

- McKinsey: While respondents tell us that tapping expert knowledge from outside is their top priority, few report deploying prediction markets to harvest collective insights from these external networks. #FAIL

Posted in Business, Cases, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Mike Robb’s blog on PR, media, betting exchanges, and other British things (mint sauce on red meat, etc.)

Posted on January 22, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

http://crowdedvoice.com/ When he is not reading Midas Oracle, Mike Robb works at BetFair on the Right2Bet campaign —as you all know.

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The relative advantage of prediction markets (over conventional means of forecasting, namely polls and statistical models) is remarkably… SMALL.

Posted on January 22, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

Sharad Goel: In a new study, Daniel Reeves, Duncan Watts, Dave Pennock and I compare the performance of prediction markets to conventional means of forecasting, namely polls and statistical models. Examining thousands of sporting and movie events, we find that … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Market Efficiency), Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Social betting In Italy –> vedrete.it

Posted on January 21, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

I am told that vedrete.it is similar to nostradamical.com, with a stricter method, though: they don’t show results in advance; they ask twice to predict, one before knowing the results, one just after, to learn the differences.

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Patrick Young Spotting Of The Month — Monaco Edition

Posted on January 21, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

Capital Market Revolution, a decade later — by Patrick Young (InTrade co-founder) In Monaco — February 4th, 2010

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Vernon Smith is bullish on event derivative markets (a.k.a. prediction markets).

Posted on January 21, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

Vernon Smith (via): So far as new applications of derivatives markets I think one possibility is we may see more people making, creating derivatives markets, betting markets on policy, public policy outcomes. We’ve already seen that with regard to the … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Financial Markets | Tagged , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Give your e-mail address to BetFair… to win an Apple iPod Touch 8GB — MAYBE.

Posted on January 21, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

The Right2Bet Competition Giveaway P.S.: I am participating in this contest.

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Jim Rogers on commodities, the commodity bubble, gold, the gold bubble, crude oil, the crude oil bubble, China, the China bubble — etc.

Posted on January 21, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

Via Joe Weisenthal:

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BetFair, explain to me how this crazy video will help legalize the real-money prediction markets in foreign countries.

Posted on January 21, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

The “Right To Bet” campaign:

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Regulations | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

France will soon block access to the BetFair and InTrade websites.

Posted on January 21, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

Gambling operators that are not be licensed by France will have their web access blocked for the French public. The license would require that servers be located within French territory. France = Communist China

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Betting, Exchanges & Markets, Gambling, Regulations | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment