The CFTC is going to close the comments in 9 days. We have 9 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges (e.g., InTrade USA or BetFair USA), and counter the puritan and sterile petition organized by the American Enterprise Institute (which has on its payroll Paul Wolfowi

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THE MIDAS ORACLE TAKES:

– CALL TO ACTION: Let&#8217-s fight so that the CFTC allows the FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges to deal with &#8220-event markets&#8221-.

– In the for-profit vs not-for-profit debate, our prediction market luminaries, doctored by Bob, are on the wrong side of the issue.

– The definitive proof that FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges (like BetFair and InTrade) are the best organizers of socially valuable prediction markets (like those on global warming and climate change).

– COMMENTS TO THE CFTC: What to expect from Tom W. Bell and Jason Ruspini

BACKGROUND INFO:

CFTC’s Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts&#8230- notably how they define &#8220-event markets&#8221-, how they are going to extend their &#8220-exemption&#8221- to other IEM-like prediction exchanges, and how they framed their questions to the public. Here are the comments sent to the CFTC.

– The Arnold &amp- Porter lawyer&#8217-s take. &#8212- (PDF file)

The Schulte, Roth &amp- Zabel lawyers&#8217- take. &#8212- (PDF file)

– The Sullivan &amp- Cromwell lawyers&#8217- take. &#8212- (PDF file)

– What Vernon Smith told the CFTC. &#8212- (PDF file)

– Michael Giberson&#8217-s economic take.

– Chris Hibbert&#8217-s libertarian take.

– Tom W. Bell&#8217-s libertarian take.

– Jed Christiansen&#8217-s pragmatic take.

– A young economist rebuts the American Enterprise Institute.

The American Enterprise Institute’s proposals to legalize the real-money prediction markets in the United States of America

APPENDIX:

Paul Wolfowitz&#8217-s profile at the American Enterprise Institute

– How the neo-cons drove the United States of America into the unecessary Iraq war

Voodoo analysis of prediction market contracts

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I wonder if the following is a joke:

Events these past few weeks make an airstrike on Iran more likely. The Intrade contract reinforces this view. While the probability remains moderate at 32%, the chart shows a market that is strengthening.

Here is stock-type technical analysis applied to this contract. There is a large &#8220-cup&#8221- going back to the contract&#8217-s inception. The low was 10 in January of this year. Since then, there is an unmistakeable rise. Following standard technical analysis, the drop from 50 to 10 was 40 points. That gives a calculated resistance level at 30. That level was broken this past week on high volume. This confirms the strength. The 40 level presents the next resistance level.

Price for US/Israeli Overt Air Strike against Iran (Rule 1.8 Applies) at intrade.com

The last post mentioning technical analysis at Midas Oracle contains a joke.