Daily Archives: June 25, 2008

The definitive proof that FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges (like BetFair and InTrade) are the best organizers of socially valuable prediction markets (like those on global warming and climate change).

Posted on June 25, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Last year, I said that the BetFair prediction markets on global warming would fail. I said: My prediction is that the first two BetFair Global Warming prediction markets (HSBC Investable Climate Change Index and ECX CFI Futures Contract) will fail … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Regulations | Tagged American Enterprise Institute, BetFair, CFTC, climate change, event derivative markets, event derivatives, global warming, HSBC, InTrade, laws, prediction markets, Regulations, United States | 5 Comments

Fairness Doctrine prediction markets

Posted on June 25, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Time for InTrade to reinstate those. -

Posted in Analysis (Market Proposals), Politics | Tagged event derivative markets, event derivatives, Fairness Doctrine, InTrade, prediction markets | Leave a comment

2 MILLION TRADES LATER: Inkling’s play-money prediction markets are accurate —too.

Posted on June 25, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- So, just like flipping a coin, if Inkling told you something has a 15% probability of coming true, you can’t just look at one outcome (i.e. one coin flip). You need to look at multiple scenarios where Inkling said … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged accuracy, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Inkling, inkling markets, play-money prediction markets, prediction markets | Leave a comment

Web Forums on Prediction Markets

Posted on June 25, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Web Forums on Prediction Markets – (Web “fora”, more exactly. For those who took Latin in High School.) – Prediction Exchange Forums BetFair BetFair Asia TradeSports InTrade InTrade @ Get Satisfaction HubDub @ Get Satisfaction NewsFutures Foresight Exchange Inkling Markets … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Resources - References | Tagged COM, event derivative markets, Event Derivative Trading, event derivatives, High School, Hollywood Stock Exchange, Inkling, ORG, prediction markets, Punter's Lounge, Tom Next, Traders Laboratory, Vegas Advisor, web fora, web forums | Leave a comment

Jason Ruspini will answer SOME of these CFTC questions. — 12 days left, Jason.

Posted on June 25, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

CFTC – (PDF file): CFTC’s Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts – V. Issues for Comment A. Request for Comment The following questions consider the Commission’s regulatory purview over event contracts, the interests that may appropriately … Continue reading →

Posted in Regulations | Tagged American Enterprise Institute, bet markets, betting markets, binary options, CFTC, commodity futures, commodity futures contracts, commodity options, commodity options contracts, definitions, event contracts, event derivative markets, event derivatives, event futures, event markets, Explainers, futures contracts, futures markets, Jason Ruspini, Porter, prediction markets, real-money prediction markets, retail customers, retail market participants, retail users, Tom W. Bell, Trader, United States Of America, Vernon Smith | 5 Comments

QUIZZ OF THE DAY: Which blog is the most open minded?

Posted on June 25, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

“Robin Hanson” site:freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com –> 8 results Freakonomics site:overcomingbias.com –> 16 results -

Posted in Miscellaneous | Tagged Freakonomics, Overcoming Bias, prediction markets, Robin Hanson, Steve Levitt | Leave a comment

Prediction Markets TV — Will the controversial but indispensable Max Keiser (ex-HSX) stay true to his purpose, or will he f*** it up?

Posted on June 25, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- Previously: VIDEO: Max Keiserâ€™s attempt at predicting the future â€”subjectively – External Link: Max Keiser blogs at the Huffington Post. -

Posted in Resources - References | Tagged Max Keiser, Prediction Markets TV | Leave a comment

My New York Times

Posted on June 25, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Midas Oracle gets plenty of hits from this news / feed aggregator: http://my.nytimes.com/ . Has any of you tried that service? -

Posted in Information Technology | Tagged My New York Times, New York Times | Leave a comment

What’s the best gift?

Posted on June 25, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Yesterday evening, NBC News had a segment on oil vouchers. Today, Felix Salmon points to lottery tickets. -

Posted in Economics | Tagged Felix Salmon, gifts, lottery tickets, NBC, oil vouchers | Leave a comment

COMMENTS TO THE CFTC: What to expect from Tom W. Bell and Jason Ruspini

Posted on June 25, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

For those who are just surfacing from an Afghan cave: Tom W. Bell is a law professor at Chapman University (in California) and Jason Ruspini is a Wall Street professional (in New York). – It seems that both will, independently … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Regulations | Tagged American Enterprise Institute, California, CFTC, Chapman University, event contracts, event derivative markets, event derivatives, event markets, for-profit prediction exchanges, Iraq, Jason Ruspini, law professor, laws, New York, not-for-profit prediction exchanges, Paul Wolfowitz, Porter, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, Regulations, Tom W. Bell, United States Of America, US Supreme Court, Vernon Smith, Wall Street, young economist | 9 Comments

Daily Archives: June 25, 2008

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