Daily Archives: May 2, 2008

Folks, yesterday, I forgot to link to the PDF file posted by the CFTC (their concept release, how snobbish). Download it, and read it -well discuss it later, here. No need to rush an opinion, we have about 2 months to make up our collective mind. Lets have it open.

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Via professor Eric Zitzewitz of Dartmouth, the CFTC announcement.

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CFTC&#8217-s Concept Release – (PDF file)

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InTrade&#8217-s John Delaney&#8217-s message to the prediction market crowd.

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Midas Oracle authors (and that includes PMIA&#8217-s Emile Servan-Schreiber) can post their views, here, if they wish &#8212-or link externally to their own blog, if they wish.

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David Pennock has published a comment that rebuts mine.

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One comment, over there.

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Finally, I&#8217-m searching for a co-author, or a bunch of co-authors, who share my views, and would like to submit a short e-mail to the CFTC, before the end of June, 2008.

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Ask anybody who suffered the recent bloodletting at HedgeStreet: CFTC regulation can impose crushing burdens. It has nearly driven that innovative business into the ground.

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That was Tom W. Bell, of course. And 5 months after Tom W. Bell&#8217-s pronouncement, HedgeStreet v1 ate the bullet and bellied up.

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Doctor Pennock, isn&#8217-t &#8220-pragmatism&#8221- to take into perspective the hard facts povided by:

  1. the bankruptcy of the CFTC-regulated HedgeStreet v1,
  2. and the insolent health of the UK Gambling Commission-regulated BetFair?

Shouldn&#8217-t the &#8220-pragmatists&#8221- draw lessons from all that?

Or will the the &#8220-pragmatists&#8221- ignore the hard facts?

Of, yeah, please, let&#8217-s display &#8220-pragmatism&#8221-.

Back in your court, doc.

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Here&#8217-s Tom W. Bell&#8217-s old take that prediction markets fall outside of the CFTC&#8217-s jurisdiction.

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I try to only follow electoral races in highly digested form -that is, thru the lens of the political prediction markets.

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Excellent formulation by Mike Linksvayer.

Tells a lot about the usage of the prediction market probablities, and how we should market them to people. BetFair, InTrade and TradeSports, are you listening?

I check prices at Intrade most days, which gives me a more accurate and much more concise status update than any amount of time spent reading or watching commentary.

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Mike Smithson says that one impersonator (that is, someone pretending to be Mike Smithson) published comments on the PoliticalBetting.com thread about the London political elections, giving false exit poll information, in order to influence the betting prices (which I understand, partially, at least

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Starting now, his blog will only publish comments from already approved commenters &#8212-comments from brand-new commenters will have to be manually approved.

We have had this procedure in place on Midas Oracle for some time, now.

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