Daily Archives: March 17, 2008

BetFair will answer some of Ed Murrays questions on Wednesday evening, March 19, 2008, between 6pm and 7pm (UK Time).

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Forum Q&amp-A Session

Betfair Customer Services 17 Mar 11:21

As announced last week we’ll be hosting a Q&amp-A session on the forum this Wednesday evening (19th March) between 6pm and 7pm (UK Time). The purpose of this Q&amp-A session is to answer questions regarding Betfair’s new bet matching logic. To help us get through as many questions as possible you can send them in advance to [email protected]. Unfortunately it is not possible for us to respond to each email individually but we will attempt to answer all questions raised via the live Q&amp-A session.

We realise that customers would appreciate the chance to have questions answered on other topics too, but we want to focus this initial session on just the new bet matching logic to ensure that we answer as many questions as possible. For those customers who have questions for Betfair that aren’t related to this topic we’ll be reintroducing regular forum Q&amp-A sessions over the coming weeks. We’ll post more information about those sessions nearer the time.

We hope you find this session helpful and informative.

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Robin Hanson wants to rule the world —just as CEOs and heads of states do for a living.
  • Predictify got funded… Great for those who will be hired… But is it a good thing, overall?
  • Nassim Nicholas Taleb likens modern-day financial markets to medicine in the 1800s, when going to a hospital in London or Paris multiplied your risk of death by four times, he says. Similarly, quants increase risk by deploying flawed financial tools designed to reduce it, he argues.
  • TradeSports-InTrade — Check Deposits
  • BetFair Australia fought for free trade across Australian state boundaries… and won.

Inkling Markets, one year later

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Much, much better. Last year at the same time, in March 2007, I was selectively critical of some of the statements they did put in their (now old) version of their website. Adam Siegel has made good progress in mastering and conveying the problematic of enterprise prediction markets. I think that if Inkling Markets can truly deliver a service that can help companies mitigate business risks, and if they can prove positive results, then their client roll could be multiplied by a factor of 1,000 or so in the next 10 years.

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Adam Siegel:

Two years ago the only way to run a prediction marketplace was to roll your own or call a vendor/consultant and have them set up software and run markets for you. It took many weeks, often months. Today with Inkling Markets it take seconds. […]

[#1] Improve forecasting of key performance indicators
Track and raise awareness of key success metrics to identify and mitigate risk factors before it&#8217-s too late.

[#2] Expose product quality problems early
Identify design and production anomalies before a product (physical or virtual) is brought to market to avoid expensive repairs and recalls.

[#3] Predict risk to your supply chain
Run a &#8220-web&#8221- of markets about the risk factors to your supply chain to predict internal and external events that would cause inefficiencies or disruptions.

[#4] Foster a culture of innovation
Determine which new ideas and process improvements will have real business impact vs. the &#8220-nice to have.&#8221-

[#5] Create new interactions with users
Build a dedicated community of users around a marketplace of questions relevant to your business area and brand. […]

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Adam Siegel (Inkling Markets CEO) in Forbes:

[Prediction markets] can significantly:

  1. improve forecasts of key performance indicators,
  2. provide a more realistic understanding of project-completion dates,
  3. identify quality-control problems early in the development life cycle,
  4. improve demand forecasts within the supply chain,
  5. and allocate resources more appropriately across research-and-development projects.

[I have edited the formatting of this excerpt.]

We will never have a perfect model of risk. – by Alan Greenspan

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We will never have a perfect model of risk

The most credible explanation of why risk management based on state-of-the-art statistical models can perform so poorly is that the underlying data used to estimate a model’s structure are drawn generally from both periods of euphoria and periods of fear, that is, from regimes with importantly different dynamics.

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